06-05-2022, 13:18
|
#46
|
The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,049
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
For the first time, in a long time, I couldn't be arsed to vote. So didn't.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 14:40
|
#47
|
Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
The Liberal Democrats are now having a great set of elections. Now doing well in Wokingham, moved West Oxfordshire in No Overall Control, doing well in Somerset and make take the council.
---------- Post added at 14:40 ---------- Previous post was at 13:27 ----------
Projected National share of the vote is in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-61235136
Quote:
With more than 700 of the BBC's key wards now declared, we are estimating what would happen if the whole country had been voting in local elections on Thursday.
The outcome across Britain as a whole would have been:
Conservative 30%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 19%
Others 16%
What this means
At 35%, Labour's estimate simply matches that for the party in 2018, which was Jeremy Corbyn's best set of local elections.
But it represents as much as a six-point improvement on its performance in last year's local elections.
And the five-point lead that Labour enjoy over the Conservatives is the largest in any local election since 2012.
In contrast, at 30% the Conservatives are down five points on 2018 and six points on last year.
With the exception of the 2019 local elections when the party was battered by its divisions over the Brexit negotiations, this represents the party's worst performance in a local election since before the EU referendum.
At 19%, the Liberal Democrat performance matches that in the 2019 locals, which had represented the party's best performance in any local election since it entered coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.
|
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 14:45
|
#48
|
Mum 15/08/46 - 30/09/20
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Galactic Sector ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha, www.daves-world.co.uk. A secret Moonbase (shh don't tell anybody)
Age: 55
Services: 1 V6, 2x1TB TiVo, SH3. Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ 5G, Ton's of Smart Home stuff, & Cuddy Toy
Posts: 16,879
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%
Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.
Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin
__________________
STAY AT HOME: I found out that mum will never walk again as the coronavirus attacked her nervous system. She died on September 30th, wearing a mask and she still might be alive today.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 15:09
|
#49
|
Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%
Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.
Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin
|
They do this all the time. The projected national results are a standard part of local elections as it helps - maybe incorrectly - place the results into some context as people look to these elections to try and see what it means at the national level.
---------- Post added at 15:09 ---------- Previous post was at 15:01 ----------
Lib Dems take Somerset.
Forget Labour (who've done a better bit today than last night), the Lib Dems have made massive gains.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 15:19
|
#50
|
Mum 15/08/46 - 30/09/20
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Galactic Sector ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha, www.daves-world.co.uk. A secret Moonbase (shh don't tell anybody)
Age: 55
Services: 1 V6, 2x1TB TiVo, SH3. Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ 5G, Ton's of Smart Home stuff, & Cuddy Toy
Posts: 16,879
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.
__________________
STAY AT HOME: I found out that mum will never walk again as the coronavirus attacked her nervous system. She died on September 30th, wearing a mask and she still might be alive today.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 15:27
|
#51
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Up North - Where It's Grim
Age: 56
Posts: 2,344
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.
|
All to do with Purdah.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 15:37
|
#52
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,115
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.
|
For the same reason no more FPNs were issued to anyone at the Downing Street get-togethers over the last two weeks - trying to avoid being seen as influencing the Elections.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-elections-evg
Quote:
The police service is investigating several potentially rule-breaking gatherings following revelations in late 2021, and announced the first round of fines via Fixed Penalty Notices in mid-April.
But representatives have since said they will not issue further announcements before the May 5 local elections.
In an announcement on April 21, a Met Police spokesman said that while the investigations will continue during the pre-election period, "restrictions around communicating" would see them suspend updates.
The restrictions mentioned by the spokesman are also colloquially known as "purdah" or "heightened sensitivity" and primarily apply to Government ministers.
They prevent civil servants and those within ministerial ranks from announcing new initiatives that might give them an unfair advantage over other parties during elections.
|
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 16:55
|
#53
|
Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Which by the way I don't think applies to the police but if they're going to do it for the Tories then they need to do it for everyone.
---------- Post added at 16:55 ---------- Previous post was at 16:04 ----------
The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.
Lib Dems are up over 150.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 17:27
|
#54
|
Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,946
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.
Lib Dems are up over 150.
|
… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.
Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.
(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 19:09
|
#55
|
Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections
---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------
Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA
Quote:
BBC seat projection for a General Election based on today's results ...
Lab 291
Con 253
LD 31
Others 75
|
---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.
Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.
(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.
|
I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).
In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.
Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 19:26
|
#56
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections
---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------
Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA
---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------
I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).
In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.
Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?
|
Conservatives also have a tightrope to walk - the more they try and pitch the anti-immigrant, we-got-Brexit done message to their red wall working class voters, the more they encourage their home counties voters to move to the Liberal Democrats whose stigma of tuition fees is fading away. And the main issue about people's incomes being squeezed won't go away.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 20:08
|
#57
|
Ran Away
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Lincoln
Services: phone + 1gbit BB + SkyQ
Posts: 11,021
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
I don't think it is case of "why would you want to vote for the conservatives" but "why would you want to vote for labour or the lib dems" and that is why I think the conservatives will still win at the next General Election. The other parties haven't got enough going for them to unseat the current government.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 20:31
|
#58
|
Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,233
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Getting worse:
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/...BHZOBknKw&s=09
Quote:
Tory losses are now far exceeding the mainstream projections made beforehand. Steve Fisher had -280, Ben Walker -200. Tories now on -467.
|
This is now worse than the polls were predicting beforehand.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 20:44
|
#59
|
Ran Away
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Lincoln
Services: phone + 1gbit BB + SkyQ
Posts: 11,021
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Tories now on -467
|
Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.
|
|
|
06-05-2022, 20:56
|
#60
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Up North - Where It's Grim
Age: 56
Posts: 2,344
|
Re: Local Elections 2022
Quote:
Originally Posted by General Maximus
Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.
|
Bet they don't or won't.
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 09:46.
|