18-12-2021, 09:08
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#796
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,036
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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That chart is an “estimate”. We’ll know for sure in a week or two
---------- Post added at 09:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
Testing has gone up by 50%, Omicron cases by 2,000%.
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Come on Hugh you know the best way to mis-represent numbers is to use %
Testing has increased by 600,000 COVID cases by 40,000. Against last week.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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18-12-2021, 09:47
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#798
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,036
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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It’s just noise now.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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18-12-2021, 09:53
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#799
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,353
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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That’ll hurt for the Steve Bakers of this world if it happens. “Freedom” erosion on steroids. Or genetically engineered in a lab if preferable.
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18-12-2021, 09:59
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#800
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vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 13,739
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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Good luck with that.
__________________
To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
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18-12-2021, 10:33
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#801
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,918
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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In other words, the civil service is doing what it’s there for: preparing policy options which ministers can then pick from.
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18-12-2021, 10:38
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#802
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,353
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Re: Coronavirus
It’s not the civil servants bit that’s interesting (I agree - they’ll be doing all kinds of contingency planning) it’s the fact it’s clearly being briefed.
Quote:
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The newspaper quoted allies of the prime minister who claimed he wanted to go down the guidance route, but that he had to be realistic about the threat of Omicron.
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18-12-2021, 10:52
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#803
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,918
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It’s not the civil servants bit that’s interesting (I agree - they’ll be doing all kinds of contingency planning) it’s the fact it’s clearly being briefed.
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Yes, they’re definitely ‘letting it be known’ - if they’re genuinely trying to keep disruption to a minimum, however, this still doesn’t make further restrictions inevitable. We had a similar situation in Scotland last month when a series of changes to the rules that had been quietly briefed for days suddenly failed to appear.
I expect at the moment they are *hoping* that a combination of high booster rates and a possibly less severe illness from omicron will render curbs unnecessary. But if that doesn’t work out then the appropriate policy option has to be ready to go.
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18-12-2021, 11:12
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#804
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,098
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
How's the death rate with omicron doing percentage wise?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Death figures lag the infection figures by about 3 weeks. We won’t know how many people are dying with omicron until the end of the month.
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He knew that…
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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18-12-2021, 11:21
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#805
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,353
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Re: Coronavirus
The next straw to clutch at is the hospitalisations/death rate vs the delta wave in summer.
In reality the important question is the hospitalisations/death rate vs delta now with increased vaccine coverage.
To present the former and say “see it’s mild” is skewing the evidence for a comforting narrative. The reality is, based on the growth rate, it needs to be significantly milder than delta in November.
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18-12-2021, 11:22
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#806
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,098
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
That chart is an “estimate”. We’ll know for sure in a week or two
---------- Post added at 09:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 ----------
Come on Hugh you know the best way to mis-represent numbers is to use %
Testing has increased by 600,000 COVID cases by 40,000. Against last week.
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Not when comparing like for like…
7th December 1,051,987 tests, 54,257 positive
14th December 1,319,891 tests, 87,619 positive
Less than 30% more tests, 60% more positive.
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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18-12-2021, 11:27
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#807
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,918
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
The next straw to clutch at is the hospitalisations/death rate vs the delta wave in summer.
In reality the important question is the hospitalisations/death rate vs delta now with increased vaccine coverage.
To present the former and say “see it’s mild” is skewing the evidence for a comforting narrative. The reality is, based on the growth rate, it needs to be significantly milder than delta in November.
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Indeed, Omicron would have to be vastly less lethal to mitigate the ease with which it infects people. It doesn’t matter if only a tiny fraction of its victims get seriously ill if, because it infects them all within a very short time, they all end up in hospital together and we run out of beds. The rate at which we get booster jabs into people is probably more significant here than how lethal omicron may or may not be.
Any comparisons with earlier waves will be interesting in illustrating vaccine effectiveness but ultimately all that really matters in public heath terms is whether our hospitals can continue to function. If it appears that serious illness is going to overwhelm the NHS then back in our boxes we will go.
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18-12-2021, 11:36
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#808
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It’s not the civil servants bit that’s interesting (I agree - they’ll be doing all kinds of contingency planning) it’s the fact it’s clearly being briefed.
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Agreed. What caught my eye was "allies of the prime minister who claimed he wanted to go down the guidance route". So it's basically there to cover Johnson's back with the Party by disseminating the view that that he doesn't want to go down the route of more severe measures but he may have to.
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18-12-2021, 11:46
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#809
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,353
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Re: Coronavirus
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/15...liament-square
Quote:
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A demonstration against mandatory vaccinations has been organised from 12pm at Parliament Square in Westminster. The Together Declaration campaign group arranged the protest after MPs passed legislation on Tuesday to make Covid jabs mandatory for frontline NHS staff from April 1, 2022.
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Predictions for the revolution? 5 arrests? A torched car? Punching a police horse?
Wonder if any of the news channels will carry it. The Man U game is off so might as well watch something.
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18-12-2021, 11:51
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#810
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 8,899
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Supposed to double every two days isn’t it, that hasn’t happened.
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People have changed their behaviour - look at all the reports of cancelled Christmas parties.
The predictions are doomed to be wrong, but that doesn't matter as long as they have the right effect.
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