Russia has invaded Ukraine

BREAKING: Russia's foreign ministry says it will impose sanctions on 287 members of the House of Commons.

(via Interfax news agency)

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: Russia's foreign ministry says it will impose sanctions on 287 members of the House of Commons.

(via Interfax news agency)

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: Russia's foreign ministry says it will impose sanctions on 287 members of the House of Commons.

(via Interfax news agency)

I wonder why only 287?

[joglynne]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I wonder why only 287?

Possibly these are the only members who Russia can't control already. It will be interesting to see who is left off the list.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by joglynne

Possibly these are the only members who Russia can't control already. It will be interesting to see who is left off the list.

LMAO!

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by joglynne

Possibly these are the only members who Russia can't control already. It will be interesting to see who is left off the list.

That's both hilarious and possibly true.

[pip08456]

Russian Ambassador to Ireland. The atrocities in Ukraine have been commited by Ukrainan Special forces.
Starts about 13 mins in but would recommend listening to the full interview to get a handle on where he's coming from. Total Russian properganda.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22090605/

Does this guy really think we are that stupid? Does Russia really think the West are?

Originally Posted by pip08456

Russian Ambassador to Ireland. The atrocities in Ukraine have been commited by Ukrainan Special forces.
Starts about 13 mins in but would recommend listening to the full interview to get a handle on where he's coming from. Total Russian properganda.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22090605/

Does this guy really think we are that stupid? Does Russia really think the West are?

You say what Vlad tells you to say or you get polonium in your soup. Or at least that’s the charitable view. Alternatively, lying is just so much a part of the job description they no longer have any sense of how ludicrous they might sound to anyone else.

BREAKING: Kremlin spokesperson says Security of Europe and the West is under threat if it continues to supply arms and weapons to Ukraine. - AFP News Agency.

BREAKING: Despite Russian threats to European security over sending arms and weapons to Ukraine: German parliament gives green light for supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

586 of 693 German lawmakers voted in favor of providing Ukraine with “heavy weapons and complex [weapons] systems” on April 28. - Kyiv Independent

---------- Post added at 12:13 ---------- Previous post was at 12:08 ----------

NEW: UK Defense Secretary says Ukraine can target Russian logistics, but unlikely to use British weapons.

Ben Wallace said on April 28 to BBC that it “would be legitimate under international law” if Ukraine did so, but U.K.-supplied artillery is being used within Ukraine.

Wallace also noted that, while he expected Russian President Vladimir Putin to dig in Ukraine like a “cancerous growth,” he appears to want to expand further. - Kyiv Independent

---------- Post added at 12:15 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ----------

Bloomberg: US lifts some restrictions on sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg’s undisclosed sources, the U.S. is sharing more timely intelligence with Ukraine to help Kyiv defend and retake territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. - Kyiv Independent

---------- Post added at 13:29 ---------- Previous post was at 12:15 ----------

NEW: The United States has information that Russia is planning for a forced capitulation of Ukraine’s democratic elected government “dissolving all local municipal governments”: US official

US ambassador to OSCE Michael Carpenter said Russia has set up new govt structures in occupied territories. - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy.

---------- Post added at 13:42 ---------- Previous post was at 13:29 ----------

BREAKING: Finland and Sweden will be able to join NATO quickly should they decide to ask for membership in the Western military alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. - Reuters.

Russia's missile and airstrikes into Ukraine are mostly being launched from inside Russia: senior U.S. defense official

Ukraine's airspace remains "contested" on Day 64 of the conflict Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy.

Ukraine's Air Force: 15 aerial targets shot down on April 28.

Spokesman for Ukraine's Air Force Yuriy Ignat said while Russia is increasing the number of its airstrikes, its air force suffered heavy losses on April 28, losing an aircraft, five cruise missiles, and nine UAVs. - Kyiv Independent

A really good Military strategic update from War Expert, Dr Mike Martin, here goes:

Time for an update on the Battle for Donbas

A thread.

• As expected, the Russians have sort of fizzled.
  
• They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the East.
  
• The Russians really had one chance - to build these units up - to build up a reserve, and then try to do some bold manoeuvre - and surround the Ukrainians in the East.
  
• The reason that was their one chance is they didn’t have anywhere near the 3:1 attackers to defenders ratio that you need, and so clever manoeuvring was the only option they had.
  
• The Russians needed to clout not dribble.
  
• Unfortunately they dribbled.
  
• The dribbled by feeding these reconstituted units piecemeal into the front line - trying to fight a kind of attritional battle against the Ukrainians.
  
• The Russian ‘plan’ was grind the Ukr down with artillery and then waves of infantry.
  
• Kind WW2 stuff. The only problem is that style of warfare need loads of troops. Which the Russians don’t have.
  
• Cut your cloth to suit etc.
  
• So the Russians are squandering / have squandered their one chance.
  
• The Ukrainians have done the right thing here.
  
• They are dug in, and so artillery effects them less. And then they are withdrawing in good order, so that they can inflict maximum damage to the Russians.
  
• They are trading space for enemy troops.
  
• Exactly the right tactics.
  
• (The Russians are also so poorly trained and with such poor morale that they are STILL sticking to main roads which makes it pretty easy to ambush them, or find them with drones (which you use to then direct artillery on them)).
  
• Donbas culminate in maybe the next 2-4 weeks.
  
• Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack.
  
• More widely, there has been a major strategic shift in the war.
  
• UK Foreign Sec Liz Truss has stated that the UK strategic aim is to evict Russian forces from Ukraine (including Crimea, so back to pre-2014 borders). She also said it would take ten years but she’s wrong about that: Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup)
  
• This is a clear statement of intent by the UK, and would only have been made if it was felt that other NATO allies could and would sign up to it.
  
• It’s very welcome after some wishy washy thinking about strategic aims (although the activities were good).
  
• The U.S at the same time has announced $33 BILLION of funding for Ukraine (or rather Biden has asked for from Congress).
  
• That is an extremely clear signal of intent.
  
• Also means that NATO and the US have decided that Putin is bluffing about using Nukes if NATO up the ante.
  
• Other issues:
  
• Mariupol - Ru has basically stated they can’t take the steelworks. Trans - looks like the Ukrs might be hitting targets there too, as with in Russia previously.
• Kherson - Russians are trying to org a referendum, but the pop is non-compliant so this might be diff.
  
• Strategic outlook:
  
• Give it four weeks; we’ll see Donbas go in the other direction, then Crimea will start to come into play

. - (Dr Mike Martin. @Threashedthought)