Russia has invaded Ukraine

I believe the only difference between both our scenarios is less people die in mine.

Until the next time Russia invade…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Until the next time Russia invade…

If....they invade.

One scenario is certain, one isn't.

Originally Posted by Pierre

If....they invade.

One scenario is certain, one isn't.

They have form, so I would posit it’s highly likely (Chechnya x 2, Georgia, Transnistria, Ukraine x 2)…

Well this invasion seems to have cost them a lot more than they expected, in men, equipment and of course sanctions - so they may think a little harder next time.

Originally Posted by Paul

Well this invasion seems to have cost them a lot more than they expected, in men, equipment and of course sanctions - so they may think a little harder next time.

Given that they have suffered massive losses over the past 2 years and yet still haven’t thought a little harder about stopping … I’d say that’s doubtful. They are still actively attempting to advance, at great material and human cost, and they are still randomly dropping missiles on Ukrainian cities. The evidence very much points to them not stopping until they are made to stop.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul

Well this invasion seems to have cost them a lot more than they expected, in men, equipment and of course sanctions - so they may think a little harder next time.

I think the sunk cost fallacy is coming into play here.
https://time.com/5347133/sunk-cost-fallacy-decisions/

Huh

---------- Post added at 14:51 ---------- Previous post was at 14:48 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Given that they have suffered massive losses over the past 2 years and yet still haven’t thought a little harder about stopping …

I'm sure they have thought about it, and decided otherwise.
Its a little harder to stop once you have started, esp when you have a madman in charge who would never make himself look weak or wrong.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think the sunk cost fallacy is coming into play here.
https://time.com/5347133/sunk-cost-fallacy-decisions/

The same could be said of Western support for Ukraine, such to the extent even the most vociferous proponents of “til the last Ukranian” cannot actually define a realistic Ukrainian victory. The logic is continue expending under-resourced Ukrainian conscripts to Russia from the NATO border because war is inevitable so they might as well fight it now.

Separately, there was an interesting piece about intimidation of journalists under the Zelensky regime in the Guardian today. Including the serving of conscription papers being issued to journalists investigating corruption and critical of how the war is going.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...-intimidate-us

there was an interesting piece about intimidation of journalists under the Zelensky regime in the Guardian today

Ah, if only they had the freedom of journalists in Russia, never having to worry if whilst you were on a slippy staircase near an open window, something suboptimal might occur…

never mentions the Russian conscripts, Russian prisoners offered freedom if they fight in the invasion, or mercenaries fighting for the Russians…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

never mentions the Russian conscripts, Russian prisoners offered freedom if they fight in the invasion, or mercenaries fighting for the Russians…[/i]

He doesn’t, but wouldn’t ending the war sooner save them too?


Not sure what your point is.

Originally Posted by Pierre

He doesn’t, but wouldn’t ending the war sooner save them too?


Not sure what your point is.

No, you wouldn’t, would you…

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

He doesn’t, but wouldn’t ending the war sooner save them too?

Not sure what your point is.

Indeed. Much whataboutery.

The last time I mentioned that conscripts were on both sides there wasn't much sympathy for the Russians.

Hugh may find his meme dismissing my posts as funny but when you scratch the surface it's actually quite callous.

There's actually much agreement about many features of this war:

Ukraine are losing.
Ukraine can't "win" (I'm yet to see an achievable definition of this).
Support needs to be much more than it has been to date to stand still.

The only real question is whether you believe support will actually come otherwise the only function of the meat grinder is to slow Russia down to protect Poland. There might be merit in this tactically from Poland's perspective but I'm not sure it's one that adequately informed Ukrainians would necessarily fight for which is why a functioning political opposition and a free press important. Also why I reference conscription so often - a Ukrainian volunteer army can go and have itself slaughtered chasing the Crimean dream for Zelensky all it wants.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

even the most vociferous proponents of “til the last Ukranian” cannot actually define a realistic Ukrainian victory.

It’s been stated on here, several times, that victory for Ukraine is total victory. Pushing back Russia to pre-2014 borders.

Anything else is “appeasement”

[jfman]

At least we can say the rhetoric matches the tactics - straight out of the 1930s.

Originally Posted by Pierre

It’s been stated on here, several times, that victory for Ukraine is total victory. Pushing back Russia to pre-2014 borders.

Anything else is “appeasement”

This.

Russia will not stop until it understands that it cannot continue. Ukraine continues to fight because it realises that ‘peace’ now would simply be a pause allowing Russia to regroup before coming back for more.

---------- Post added at 13:38 ---------- Previous post was at 13:37 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

At least we can say the rhetoric matches the tactics - straight out of the 1930s.

The 1930s, when the UK and France realised far too late that appeasement simply delayed the inevitable (or, if you take a more charitable view of Chamberlain, appeasement attempted to hold Hitler back while the UK and France scrambled to catch up on years of complacency in military preparedness, ironically a situation we now find ourselves in once more).