Britain outside the EU

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Paul

You cant, thats the point.

Course you can, what was the size of the economy pre leaving and what's the size of it now is the easiest way, like pre leaving the economy was 90% the size of Germany's and now it's 70% of the size and falling

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul

You cant, thats the point.

This is the closest way of doing so. Covid doesn't meant that we burnt all our text books on economic modelling.

We didn't get all these trade deals that were meant to materialise and we know trade with the EU dropped a lot. Seems pretty obvious that would impact our growth.

Things like manufacturing took the biggest hits, car production in this country has drastically gone down, presumably because those are harder to export now.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Damien

We didn't get all these trade deals that were meant to materialise and we know trade with the EU dropped a lot. Seems pretty obvious that would impact our growth.

Things like manufacturing took the biggest hits, car production in this country has drastically gone down, presumably because those are harder to export now.

... shouldn't be as we have free trade with EU, albeit with some non-tariff downsides.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-brexit-dea...uk-automotive/

That a trade deal has been at been agreed at the last minute between the UK and EU comes as a huge relief for manufacturing sectors like automotive, which would have faced tariffs of 10% on exports and imports in the event of no deal – an outcome widely viewed as potentially ‘devastating’ for the sector.

BMW for example recently stated that a no-trade deal scenario would push up costs by several hundred million euros, and that longer term it would look at where to make the Mini model.

It’s hoped that the deal now gives a green light to major investments in the UK that had been stalled amidst Brexit uncertainty, such as that by PSA in assembling the Vauxhall/Opel Astra at Ellesmere Port, and Nissan starting Qashqai production in 2021 at Sunderland. If so, that’s genuinely good news in securing a new round of model assembly at two plants at least.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

We didn't get all these trade deals that were meant to materialise and we know trade with the EU dropped a lot. Seems pretty obvious that would impact our growth.

Things like manufacturing took the biggest hits, car production in this country has drastically gone down, presumably because those are harder to export now.

I agree with some of what you say. Regarding car manufacturing, I think this has been impacted by the Honda factory closure and chip shortages.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

... shouldn't be as we have free trade with EU, albeit with some non-tariff downsides.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-brexit-dea...uk-automotive/

Trade isn't just about tariffs though it's about regulatory alignment, customs checks and, in the specific case of the EU, workers' ability to move back and forth. We know the problems in Dover for example. The amount of red tape and paperwork added to trade increases time and cost.

As an example remember the arguments we had on here about Just in Time manufacturing. That doesn't hold if there are delays moving parts in/out of Britain.

I just don't think it's arguable that Brexit hit our economic performance. I think it's a bit mad that should be seen as controversial. That you could leave a massive economic block like the EU, don't really replace it with anything (which was initially the argument from the Brexit camp), and pretended it didn't have an impact. It's also true that COVID played a massive part as well coupled with general economic incompetence from the government and topped off with generally low productivity that we also seem to have had a problem with.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Trade isn't just about tariffs though it's about regulatory alignment, customs checks and, in the specific case of the EU, workers' ability to move back and forth. We know the problems in Dover for example. The amount of red tape and paperwork added to trade increases time and cost.

As an example remember the arguments we had on here about Just in Time manufacturing. That doesn't hold if there are delays moving parts in/out of Britain.

Some of the hard Brexit approaches have added considerable costs to manufacturing with no benefits. In the short term, companies may absorb them but longer term, as we have seen, investment has fallen significantly which does not bode well.

UK chemicals sector hit by £2bn Brexit red tape bill

New ‘UK Reach’ regime has pitted ministers against a broad swath of manufacturing

A government impact assessment, seen by the Financial Times, has put the central estimate for the costs of registering chemicals on a new UK database — often duplicating existing registrations with the EU — at £2bn.

The chemicals industry warned last year that the new regime — known as UK Reach — would cost about £1bn — but the government now accepts that many more substances will have to be registered than previously thought.

The British regime would be far more costly than the EU Reach system; UK companies spent £500mn complying with the Brussels regime over the previous decade, winning access to 27 markets.

https://www.ft.com/content/f41e3350-...0-80d3a483ef8d

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Trade isn't just about tariffs though it's about regulatory alignment, customs checks and, in the specific case of the EU, workers' ability to move back and forth. We know the problems in Dover for example. The amount of red tape and paperwork added to trade increases time and cost.

As an example remember the arguments we had on here about Just in Time manufacturing. That doesn't hold if there are delays moving parts in/out of Britain.

A look at some of the headlines I'm reading today supports the points you're making:

Businesses 'banging their heads against a brick wall' over improving trade with EU, BCC warns

The BCC wants additional deals to made food exports easier more than two years after the Trade and Co-operation Agreement was signed.

Shevaun Haviland, director general of the BCC, said: "Businesses feel they are banging their heads against a brick wall as nothing has been done to help them, almost two years after the TCA was first agreed.

"The longer the current problems go unchecked, the more EU traders go elsewhere, and the more damage is done."

The BCC is calling for an additional deal with the EU to eliminate or reduce the complexity of food exports for small and medium-sized businesses, along with a Norway-style deal that would exempt small firms from needing a fiscal representative for VAT in the EU.

It is also calling for deals with the EU and member states that would allow UK firms to travel for longer and work in Europe.

https://news.sky.com/story/businesse...0is%20done.%22

Minister admits more needed to ease trade after damning Brexit business survey

There has not been much response from the government, but Mark Spencer, the farming minister, has been giving interviews and he told Times Radio this morning he claimed the government did want to reduce “red tape” for exporters to the EU. He said:

There’s always more that we can do to try and ease the way and the passage of trade. We’re very keen to do that. We’re a free and open trading nation, we want to work closely with our EU colleagues, and we want to try and reduce that red tape, if there is any red tape, on their side of the Channel. So, of course, we want to keep those channels of trade open in both directions.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...085ce9739c3875

These non-tariff barriers are likely to contribute heavily to this:

UK only G7 member with economic output still lower than pre-pandemic level

ONS says UK economy contracted by 0.3% in three months to September leading to weaker recovery than expected

https://www.theguardian.com/business...pandemic-level

[1andrew1]

Under pressure!

Joe Biden’s visit to the UK in doubt over slow progress on Northern Ireland Brexit talks

The US is ready to scrap mooted plans for Joe Biden to visit the UK for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement if Rishi Sunak fails to strike a deal with the EU on post-Brexit trade arrangements with Northern Ireland in time.

Diplomatic sources told i that US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is being lined up as an alternative to visit on behalf of the US, which is a guarantor to the peace agreement, if the President does not attend.

News that Mr Biden is considering cancelling his first bilateral trip to the UK puts increased pressure on the Prime Minister and the EU to reach an agreement.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/us...elated_stories

I know we just love to see everything through the Brexit lens here but the fact is domestic American politics are also at play. Biden identifies as Irish-American, and regardless of how daft and arbitrary Americans’ preoccupation with their European ancestry can be, the Irish-American vote matters to Democrats. He has to stand by his previous comments on this issue regardless of how badly he may personally want to attend. It is obviously untenable for there not to be senior US government representation, hence Blinken’s name is being floated. However I suspect when it comes to it, Biden will come. The GFA isn’t just about the UK, it’s about Ireland, and Biden thinks he’s Irish.

[Dave42]

https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/sta...87099519389698

EXCLUSIVE: Tory voters now believe the costs of Brexit outweigh its benefits, polling shows for the first time

One-third (33%) think it has caused more problems, while 22% believe it has solved more

from the torygraph

A closer relationship with the EU, i.e customs union or similar arrangement, will be on the cards if this pattern continues.

Originally Posted by Damien

A closer relationship with the EU, i.e customs union or similar arrangement, will be on the cards if this pattern continues.

https://news.sky.com/story/ni-protoc...-deal-12783377

The EU and UK say there is a "new basis" for resolving the Northern Ireland Protocol row after an agreement was reached on sharing trade data.

Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris met EU chief negotiator Maros Sefcovic in London on Monday, as efforts to find a way forward over post-Brexit arrangements in the region continue.

The agreement will allow the EU to access UK IT systems which will provide detailed information about goods flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://news.sky.com/story/ni-protoc...-deal-12783377

The NI development is really good news and I hope it removes the reason for Stormont not sitting. My only concern is if the ERG ultras don't like it.

From what I read in the FT, the Ukraine war has brought Europe together more so these are now far less tense negotiations. And having a more pragmatic PM is helpful too.

---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:49 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

A closer relationship with the EU, i.e customs union or similar arrangement, will be on the cards if this pattern continues.

I think a far closer relationship will occur over time - gravity of trade drives this. I believe Labour has plans to align veterinary standards to try and improve food exports to the EU.

[tweetiepooh]

Originally Posted by Damien

A closer relationship with the EU, i.e customs union or similar arrangement, will be on the cards if this pattern continues.

A bit like the EEC or similar then.