Coronavirus

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

The variant is omicron, the virus is COVID-19.

Thank you for correcting me, o wise one.

---------- Post added at 11:53 ---------- Previous post was at 11:49 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

What jfman is saying is that we as a country don't give into intimidation, so why should we break that rule and give into the possibility of riots from anti-lockdown protestors?

I think it is appropriate to read the mood of the people. They are not, in the main, prepared to tolerate another lockdown, and now with the vaccination programme having been completely rolled out for elderly and vulnerable people, there is no need for it.

This is the very reason the scientists were advising the government not to put a lockdown in place too early when the virus first came to this country. People get fed up with restrictions on their freedoms and there is a limit beyond which people will not go.

---------- Post added at 12:00 ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Doesn't it comes down, at the end of the day, to personal attitudes to risk, awareness and responsibility? Other countries seem to have a greater percentage of their population that care about the health & wellbeing of others and we have less. Not as less as some, but we're not great.

You have people who say that they have thrown away their masks so what would they so if they were in a room with potentially vulnerable people? A Doctor's waiting room for example. I do not understand how people demand not to wear a mask when, wearing one, can literally save someone life. It is such a pathetically easy thing to do to put one on when you enter a closed space.

How can you get so angry about the possibility of not killing someone?

I think it comes down to whether you believe the hype, and there’s plenty of that about.

I welcome the new freedom not to wear a mask in shops. I am certainly fed up with my spectacles steaming up with the mask on and I dislike the reduction in the air flow that results from mask wearing as well.

I only wear a mask these days if required to do so (in chemists, doctor surgeries and hospitals) and where requested to do so with all the staff wearing masks as well.

As for social distancing, I think that is of limited value as well. You must have seen the diagram on TV showing how someone with the virus who coughs or sneezes spreading the virus way beyond existing guidelines for social distancing and across the aisles in a supermarket.

[Sephiroth]

The Guvmin has to tread a fine line between being too cautious and having good reason for that extra caution (lockdown).

It seems to me that they need to know just how bad the Omicron variant is and data from Africa will be being studied,

Whitty is reported in today's Torygraph as opining:

The delta variant is of greater concern to the UK than the new Covid mutation, England's chief medical officer has said amid rising international fears about the omicron strain.

Prof Chris Whitty said ministers were right to take "precautionary" border measures to slow the arrival of the new variant into Britain.

But he warned that any attempt to impose "more muscular restrictions" could lose public

[Carth]

Covid: New Omicron variant not a disaster, says Sage scientist

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59442141

Asked whether people should be fearful of the new variant, Prof Semple - who sits on the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - told BBC Breakfast: "This is not a disaster, and the headlines from some of my colleagues saying 'this is horrendous' I think are hugely overstating the situation.

Like Prof Semple, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, expressed cautious optimism that existing vaccines could be effective at preventing serious disease from the Omicron variant. . .

He told the Today programme that while it would still be weeks until scientists properly understood the effects of Omicron's mutations, most of them were similar to those seen in other variants. . . "Despite those mutations existing in other variants, the vaccines have continued to prevent serious disease as we've moved through Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta," he said.

. . "It's extremely unlikely that a reboot of a pandemic in a vaccinated population like we saw last year is going to happen."

[nffc]

The most important thing right now is that people don't knee jerk.


Keep on with what we are doing. This variant hasn't (as far as we know) hit the UK but they all have, some have taken off, some like Beta haven't. If you have covid symptoms isolate and get a test.


Pretty much all the infections so far have been linked with travel to Africa, the vast majority southern Africa. The flight from SA to NL with people testing positive will be isolated and NL is in lockdown anyway, which will help.


We don't know much yet about whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, to what extent it is or not, and to what extent it may be able to evade immunity. We don't know if it is going to take off in an environment with a high amount of infection with another variant. This will likely be tested with the EU countries who have already seen it.


At the moment a lot of SAGE advisors including Whitty himself are saying it's not something to get worried about yet. If it does take off it will probably affect unvaccinated people more easily so that is probably the important thing.



Moderna and Pfizer have said it would be only a few weeks if they needed to produce a new version of the jab to use, so that will be covered if it's the only way out.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by nffc

The most important thing right now is that people don't knee jerk.


Keep on with what we are doing. This variant hasn't (as far as we know) hit the UK but they all have, some have taken off, some like Beta haven't. If you have covid symptoms isolate and get a test.


Pretty much all the infections so far have been linked with travel to Africa, the vast majority southern Africa. The flight from SA to NL with people testing positive will be isolated and NL is in lockdown anyway, which will help.


We don't know much yet about whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, to what extent it is or not, and to what extent it may be able to evade immunity. We don't know if it is going to take off in an environment with a high amount of infection with another variant. This will likely be tested with the EU countries who have already seen it.


At the moment a lot of SAGE advisors including Whitty himself are saying it's not something to get worried about yet. If it does take off it will probably affect unvaccinated people more easily so that is probably the important thing.



Moderna and Pfizer have said it would be only a few weeks if they needed to produce a new version of the jab to use, so that will be covered if it's the only way out.

They did, but you’ve over simplified what they said and failed
To quote fully what they said. After that point they have to test it which is at least a further 3-6 months, it also has to be manufactured, shipped and then get stuck into the arms of those that want it.

So, as they stated it would take 1-2 weeks to decide if modifying the existing vaccines, plus the development & testing time you’re potentially looking at April-may next year to start getting a new jab into peoples arms.

Now…. IF and if it’s a big IF the new variant is more transmissible and can escape vaccines we will not quite be back at square one bit we will have hit a considerable snag in our progress

Whilst I don’t believe we will need a full lockdown, I do believe that we will see some form of restrictions being reintroduced such as masks, social distancing & wfh

[Jaymoss]

Anything and everything is pure speculation until we know how it spreads, if it evades vaccines and how deadly is it

It could spread faster than Delta and get past vaccine and still not make you as sick as delta could. Of course there is a possibility it is even deadlier than Delta spreads like wildfire and the vaccines do nothing. This of course is the same with any new strain or mutation. One thing is for sure none of us in our lifetime have ever seen anything like Sars Cov 2.

We will know just in time for Christmas so lets hope it is a present we do not mind having

Oh and the panic in South Africa to get back here without having to isolate in hotels is just enough to bring it here and embed it in our society. They should have just blocked entry without isolation straight away

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Anything and everything is pure speculation until we know how it spreads, if it evades vaccines and how deadly is it

It could spread faster than Delta and get past vaccine and still not make you as sick as delta could. Of course there is a possibility it is even deadlier than Delta spreads like wildfire and the vaccines do nothing. This of course is the same with any new strain or mutation. One thing is for sure none of us in our lifetime have ever seen anything like Sars Cov 2.

We will know just in time for Christmas so lets hope it is a present we do not mind having

Indeed, however if the past twenty odd months have taught us anything, it should be we should try to do our best to get ahead of this in anyway possible.

Mask wearing (for most people) & social distancing are simple things that can be reintroduced at speed to help.

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Indeed, however if the past twenty odd months have taught us anything, it should be we should try to do our best to get ahead of this in anyway possible.

Mask wearing (for most people) & social distancing are simple things that can be reintroduced at speed to help.

I agree totally and have not stopped doing any of that anyway . I still keep my distance and still wear a mask. I saw my daughter yesterday but insisted she take a LFT before she come round

[nffc]

Masks don't stop people passing on and getting covid though. It slows down at best.

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by nffc

Masks don't stop people passing on and getting covid though. It slows down at best.

and that is better than nothing though isn't it

[nffc]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

and that is better than nothing though isn't it

So is wearing a 2 metre radius plastic bubble around your whole body 24/7 but no-one's suggesting that.


Most transmission occurs in workplaces, schools, and households anyway which weren't on the mask mandates initially.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by nffc

Masks don't stop people passing on and getting covid though. It slows down at best.

And depending on the study of the new variant that’s exactly what we may need to do again. The governments of the world are spooked by this new variant, we would be wise to act as proactively as possible.

If the new variant is nothing to worry about it then people have had to wear masks (a mild irritant to most) and stand 6ft apart for a few weeks, not exactly a hardship.

If it is something to worry about on the other hand then we’ve already introduced some sensible precautions which do not come with the same destructiveness as a full lockdown.

Originally Posted by nffc

Masks don't stop people passing on and getting covid though. It slows down at best.

Brakes don’t always stop you hitting the car in front of you, they sometimes just slow you down so you don’t hit it as hard.

Most of us still use brakes, though…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

The variant is omicron

Wasn’t he in Transformers?

[nffc]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

And depending on the study of the new variant that’s exactly what we may need to do again. The governments of the world are spooked by this new variant, we would be wise to act as proactively as possible.

If the new variant is nothing to worry about it then people have had to wear masks (a mild irritant to most) and stand 6ft apart for a few weeks, not exactly a hardship.

If it is something to worry about on the other hand then we’ve already introduced some sensible precautions which do not come with the same destructiveness as a full lockdown.

The most sensible thing to do is something which actually works and doesn't impact on people, and to not do it until it's actually needed.


So we already know that the virus spreads mostly in busy indoor places with poor ventilation. There are 2 ways you can solve that possibly - improve ventilation or make them less busy by introducing number restrictions.


The original 2m idea was based on the idea of keeping apart, the figure itself wasn't based on any real science, just reasonable separation which was easy to visualise. It was 6ft in the US, and 1m / 1.5m in some countries.



As for masks, well, you only need to look at people who have continued to wear them whenever they are indoors and out of their house and have still caught covid. And this includes people who should know how to use them properly. You can't wear them with glasses without the lenses steaming up, which is dangerous in itself, as you either need to not wear the mask, not wear your glasses (which may not be possible depending on how bad your sight is) or walk around with steamed up lenses. The disposable paper ones just add extra to landfill (they can't go in as paper as they have non-recyclable plastic on them) and don't really work too well nor do the cloth masks. If they were going for masks which actually do work then the N95/surgical masks would be better but even then Germany is experiencing a spike in virus despite these masks being needed in other areas.


The obvious thing they could actually do which will probably work is to advise people that they need to work from home if they can. This stops needless interactions in the office where you don't need to be with those people to work. Any job which needs you to be in a workplace can continue.

The trouble if you start to introduce any more measures is that it impacts on trade. Enforcing distancing and masks would mean that the hospitality industry would have to suffer again which means there would have to be job losses or we'd have to pay for furlough again which we can't afford.



Even Chris Whitty said the other day that he doesn't think people would support another lockdown. We've already seen in previous restrictions where people are having parties in parks and in houses because they can't do it in pubs.