Coronavirus

[nomadking]

It's not just about hospitalisations. The more the virus is allowed to swirl around, even with asymptomatic cases, the more chance of a new variant emerging that one way or another, could be more serious. On the other hand a new variant might be more innocuous. Do we want to take the risk?


Vaccinations in general don't give protection immediately after infection. It takes a few days for the immune system to get going. The idea is that it is fewer days than the natural course of immunity, and hopefully avoid reaching the infectious stage.

[Sephiroth]

Everything Chris says makes sense. But there would be a correlation on a flatter scale between infections and hospitalisations I simply don't trust the death figures as being Covid meaningful.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by nomadking

It's not just about hospitalisations. The more the virus is allowed to swirl around, even with asymptomatic cases, the more chance of a new variant emerging that one way or another, could be more serious. On the other hand a new variant might be more innocuous. Do we want to take the risk?

Yes, absolutely.

[Sephiroth]

My son is in Australia (Canberra). The population is very largely unvaccinated because their government has (wrongly imo) disengaged from the AZ vaccine because they say risk of death from the vaccine is higher than from Covid. They're back-tracking on their AZ production facility.

So, the population must wait another year for Pfizer to come through. My son has been vaccinated with AZ through the British High Commission.

Lest you think that Australia is brisk and efficient, the current Delta wave got through the sort of loophole you might have expected the risk assessors to have caught. Like who touches the airline crew's baggage on the way to quarantine?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by nomadking

It's not just about hospitalisations. The more the virus is allowed to swirl around, even with asymptomatic cases, the more chance of a new variant emerging that one way or another, could be more serious. On the other hand a new variant might be more innocuous. Do we want to take the risk?


Vaccinations in general don't give protection immediately after infection. It takes a few days for the immune system to get going. The idea is that it is fewer days than the natural course of immunity, and hopefully avoid reaching the infectious stage.

So the vaccination programme is a total waste of time then.

Sorry, nomadking, I don’t buy it. The public will not accept never-ending restrictions on their freedoms and it simply isn’t necessary any more. We’ve lived with germs and viruses since humans first arrived on this planet. It’s a bit ridiculous to start worrying about them now and hide ourselves away in fright.

We will become a nation of risk-averse hermits if we carry on like this!

---------- Post added at 13:34 ---------- Previous post was at 13:31 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

It’s clear by now that the question HMG has always been interested in is at what level can covid be allowed to circulate through the population without overwhelming the health service. A bald figure representing number of infections tells us nothing about the likelihood of unlocking occurring on 19 July because we no longer know what the correlation is between infections, hospitalisation and death. The reason we no longer know this is because of the vaccination programme. The whole point of the delay is to gather that data, not to drive infection numbers down. Had the intention been to reduce infections by population control measures, we would have been back in lockdown by now.

Although we can already see that the ratio between infections and hospitalisations has improved significantly, even before the adult population is wholly vaccinated.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So the vaccination programme is a total waste of time then.

Sorry, nomadking, I don’t buy it. The public will not accept never-ending restrictions on their freedoms and it simply isn’t necessary any more. We’ve lived with germs and viruses since humans first arrived on this planet. It’s a bit ridiculous to start worrying about them now and hide ourselves away in fright.

We will become a nation of risk-averse hermits if we carry on like this!

Yet despite this the Government continues to be extremely popular, despite the odd scandal too.

I’m not sure how we become a nation of hermits. Some (many?) are completely unaffected by the small number of remaining restrictions.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

My son is in Australia (Canberra). The population is very largely unvaccinated because their government has (wrongly imo) disengaged from the AZ vaccine because they say risk of death from the vaccine is higher than from Covid. They're back-tracking on their AZ production facility.

So, the population must wait another year for Pfizer to come through. My son has been vaccinated with AZ through the British High Commission.

Lest you think that Australia is brisk and efficient, the current Delta wave got through the sort of loophole you might have expected the risk assessors to have caught. Like who touches the airline crew's baggage on the way to quarantine?

I think Australia and New Zealand have a false sense of security. I have relatives out there and I am appalled that they still don’t know when they will be vaccinated.

I worry that both governments have assumed that by keeping the numbers of cases low courtesy of lockdowns and shunning the urgency of getting the vaccinations done, they are exposing their respective populations to major outbreaks this winter which could have been avoided. This is not over.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I think Australia and New Zealand have a false sense of security. I have relatives out there and I am appalled that they still don’t know when they will be vaccinated.

I worry that both governments have assumed that by keeping the numbers of cases low courtesy of lockdowns and shunning the urgency of getting the vaccinations done, they are exposing their respective populations to major outbreaks this winter which could have been avoided. This is not over.

The irony.

You do know our winter is their summer? Who knows it could go away by itself.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Yet despite this the Government continues to be extremely popular, despite the odd scandal too.

I’m not sure how we become a nation of hermits. Some (many?) are completely unaffected by the small number of remaining restrictions.

Obviously you are one of the lucky ones who have not become impoverished as a result of their businesses or jobs being lost. Obviously, you also don’t care about the businesses that are continuing to struggle while the remaining restrictions stay in place. For example, there are many restaurants who find that they cannot make a profit while social distancing is still mandatory.

The economy is also a huge worry. I know the PM is looking to invest considerable sums to eventually generate income, but that is a huge task and requires many billions to be expended before this can even begin to start turning around. If this goes pear-shaped, our public services will go downhill rapidly because there will be no money to fund them.

I really cannot understand why some people are still arguing for restrictions to continue after 19 July when we have a successful vaccination programme and it is already clear that hospitalisations have been greatly reduced since the first two waves. It suits some, of course, who would rather be on furlough than working.

---------- Post added at 13:50 ---------- Previous post was at 13:49 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

The irony.

You do know our winter is their summer? Who knows it could go away by itself.

The winter period down there started in June. A lot can happen in three months.

My point is that now we have a vaccine, we can avoid the total number of deaths that would otherwise have occurred. The vaccine has changed everything.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Obviously you are one of the lucky ones who have not become impoverished as a result of their businesses or jobs being lost. Obviously, you also don’t care about the businesses that are continuing to struggle while the remaining restrictions stay in place. For example, there are many restaurants who find that they cannot make a profit while social distancing is still mandatory.

Bollocks Old Boy. I support all the schemes the Government have put in place through the crisis. I’m more than happy to pay more tax to fund them - are you???

The economy is also a huge worry. I know the PM is looking to invest considerable sums to eventually generate income, but that is a huge task and requires many billions to be expended before this can even begin to start turning around. If this goes pear-shaped, our public services will go downhill rapidly because there will be no money to fund them.

I really cannot understand why some people are still arguing for restrictions to continue after 19 July when we have a successful vaccination programme and it is already clear that hospitalisations have been greatly reduced since the first two waves. It suits some, of course, who would rather be on furlough than working.

If you think folk on zero hours contracts in nightclubs and lap dancers are propping up the Tories in the polls because of the furlough scheme that’s an interesting take.

I can’t understand why, despite being consistently wrong throughout the pandemic, you continue to push this economy over public health agenda.

The winter period down there started in June. A lot can happen in three months.

And you will be on your knees praying they fail no doubt.

My point is that now we have a vaccine, we can avoid the total number of deaths that would otherwise have occurred. The vaccine has changed everything.

Indeed. It’s almost as if it’s a good idea to vaccinate more people.

Nevertheless the evidence won’t support no restrictions from July 19, and if anything as other countries close their borders to UK citizens it’ll have a greater economic impact for us to not manage case numbers.

[joglynne]

Live Covid-19 updates as Sajid Javid makes his first statement in Commons as Health Secretary

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...javid-20920905

[Sephiroth]

Main thrust was pretty much content-free.

[jfman]

It’s almost as if comforting lies are more likely to get them through the by election.

Plus once we hit 45,000 cases a day it’ll be an easier sell.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s almost as if comforting lies are more likely to get them through the by election.

Plus once we hit 45,000 cases a day it’ll be an easier sell.

I hope we get to 45,000 cases per day, or higher by next week with any luck and deaths & hospitalisation remain static, as they are now.

Then, there will be no doubt that there is no longer a link between cases and serious illness. And we can stop worrying about case numbers and get on with normality with no need for masks or distancing.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Sephiroth]

Yes - what Pierre says. It'll be somewhat like recording a flu season - except that nobody gets tested for flu.