Britain outside the EU

[1andrew1]

Brexit means prices are 4% higher

For we now see clearly that inflation is higher in the UK than in other comparable economies, and has been for some time. Catherine Mann, a distinguished economist who sits on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee as an independent, calculates that Brexit has meant prices are around 4 per cent higher than they would otherwise be thanks to the cumulative effects of the 2016 EU referendum decision, when set against comparable economies, not least because “no other country chose to unilaterally impose trade barriers on its closest trading partners.”

Disrupting supply chains in and out of the EU added bureaucracy, delays and costs, which stands to reason. Brexit also affected the easy dynamic flow of needed skills and types of workers under the old freedom of movement regime, substituting a clunky, arbitrary, and politicised points-based system for the agile free market system. More people are retiring early, and more are suffering long-term illness because of the lingering effects Covid.

The impact of all that is to create a labour shortage, push wages up (and therefore business costs), and these have been passed on. In some forms they’ve also squeezed profits (for investment). The economy cannot grow without people to work in it.

The attempt to maintain living standards and wages in the face of a reduction in the capacity of the economy to supply goods and services (for lack of workers) made inflation inevitable. Using interest rates and higher taxes to hammer it down aren’t the best weapons in such circumstances; but, barring a much higher level of immigration, they are the only tools the authorities have at their disposal.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...8ebb6f54&ei=26

[1andrew1]

We must admit Brexit is a mistake and rejoin the single market, says senior Tory Tobias Ellwood

A senior Tory has called for both main parties to show the courage and strength of character to admit that Brexit has failed and seek to rejoin the EU single market.

Tobias Ellwood, Conservative chairman of the defence select committee, said many MPs privately agree with the case for a Norway-style relationship with the EU but are too scared to say so.

For Ellwood Brexit has become the issue that dare not speak its name.

“Nobody dares mention Brexit on the Labour or Conservative side or look at the numbers to see whether economically it would be wiser for us to be in or outside of the single market,” he says.

“Surely we should have that strength of character, the courage to look at the biggest generational decision which is now clearly not gone in the right direction. I didn’t know anybody who voted Remain or Brexit, who expected us to be where we are today, but we dare not go there.”

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ad...bias%20Ellwood

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ad...bias%20Ellwood

Very soon there will be nobody of any standing in public life who campaigned to leave. With a fresh slate, falling living standards and economic decline it’ll only be natural for the question to get asked.

Unless anyone can actually name a single tangible benefit of not having a closer economic relationship with the EU it becomes inevitable.

The moonbeams of a trade deal with the USA and China ( remember that classic) are long gone. Many Brexit voters will be long in the ground before benefits are realised (it was Rees Mogg that suggested 50 years after all, and the minimum voting age of 18 and life expectancy in the high 70s it means the chances of seeing the benefits of Brexit (2076) is down there with seeing Halley’s Comet (2061).

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

Very soon there will be nobody of any standing in public life who campaigned to leave. With a fresh slate, falling living standards and economic decline it’ll only be natural for the question to get asked.

Unless anyone can actually name a single tangible benefit of not having a closer economic relationship with the EU it becomes inevitable.

The moonbeams of a trade deal with the USA and China ( remember that classic) are long gone. Many Brexit voters will be long in the ground before benefits are realised (it was Rees Mogg that suggested 50 years after all, and the minimum voting age of 18 and life expectancy in the high 70s it means the chances of seeing the benefits of Brexit (2076) is down there with seeing Halley’s Comet (2061).

The only benefit l can think of is those shiny new blue passports.

[Ms NTL]

Originally Posted by denphone

The only benefit l can think of is those shiny new blue passports.

Those bloody new passports are useless, the EU-ers kick you out of EU in 90 days.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Ms NTL

Those bloody new passports are useless, the EU-ers kick you out of EU in 90 days.

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

Back then yes, hypothetically what do you think would be the result of a rerun?. "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" springs to mind......

[richard-john56]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

No body is perfect.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

Indeed they did but many now are starting to have huge pangs of bregret given the catastrophic mess the government has made of it since the referendum.

[Sephiroth]

I've no idea of how a rejoin referendum would pan out.

Leaving the EU wasn't a mistake. It's the Guvmin that has performed badly. And Labour is a poor alternative - but the public will be more intent on punishing the Tories than - what? Awful predicament.

At least we're out of the EU.

[Ms NTL]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

All my family has EU ID cards, we can leave anytime, for as long we like but come back to our Surrey, anytime. BTW one of my kids has French ID, I know you love the Frogs

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by denphone

The only benefit l can think of is those shiny new blue passports.

The ones made in Holland and Poland

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Well, 52% did vote Leave!

Let me guess, they all knew they were voting for this...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I've no idea of how a rejoin referendum would pan out.

Opinion polls aim to show this - this one says 61% rejoin which seems quite high.

Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies....-17-june-2023/

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Leaving the EU wasn't a mistake. It's the Guvmin that has performed badly. And Labour is a poor alternative - but the public will be more intent on punishing the Tories than - what? Awful predicament.

At least we're out of the EU.

Three Prime Ministers have tried to make Brexit a success and failed. For one simple reason - you can't polish a turd.

One way for you to judge whether it's a success or not is to return to why David Cameron called the referendum in the first place: to cure the divisions in the Conservative Party. One simple test: Has Brexit cured the divisions in the Party? Yes or no?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I've no idea of how a rejoin referendum would pan out.

Leaving the EU wasn't a mistake. It's the Guvmin that has performed badly. And Labour is a poor alternative - but the public will be more intent on punishing the Tories than - what? Awful predicament.

At least we're out of the EU.

I doubt we will see a rejoin referendum any time soon. It’d be unlikely to happen in the first five years of a Labour Government as unlikely to make the manifesto. But once you get into the one after that. Preparations and a campaign would be a couple of years so 2033, negotiations and accession 2035 at fastest. We could be in a whole new world by then - you might not even use channel numbers on TV - life could be revolutionised!

Far more likely to see further economic harmonisation and trade short of membership.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

Far more likely to see further economic harmonisation and trade short of membership.

Agreed.

Then it will tip into wanting a seat at the table and 20 years hence we'll be leading Europe again and enjoying a stronger currency. Illegal crossings from France will be a fraction of what they are today as we return them swiftly back to France.

Or perhaps we'll settle for a half-in, half out approach. Either way, you can't fight basic economics for too long.