Russia has invaded Ukraine

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by jfman

There’s nothing Vatnik about the observation that Ukrainian conscripts are dying in massive numbers for a cause that is unachievable.

18 month old polling may say something else, as may polling that is honest about the limited support that the West will continue to commit in the future years of the conflict.

If you are committed to fighting Putin then go and enlist yourself. Otherwise you are just another armchair general playing toy soldiers while masturbating over western propaganda like the Ghost of Kyiv.

We are paying with a few billion here, and a few billion there. They are out there paying with their lives and I, for one, would feel much more comfortable if they had a choice in the matter.

More Vatnik word soup. The polling was done in Aug 2023 - that maybe 18 months ago in your alternative universe

As Damian has said, we should support the wishes of the Ukrainian people. If it clear that the majority of the population are being coerced to continue the defence of their country then, and only, then should we reassess our support.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by ianch99

More Vatnik word soup. The polling was done in Aug 2023 - that maybe 18 months ago in your alternative universe

As Damian has said, we should support the wishes of the Ukrainian people. If it clear that the majority of the population are being coerced to continue the defence of their country then, and only, then should we reassess our support.

So when are you off to sign up, keyboard warrior?

Spare me your childish insults.

If 30% (by your own poll) of Ukrainians don’t want to fight then neither you, nor Zelensky, nor their neighbours inside or outside have the right to condemn them to death or injury on the front line by conscription.

When America inevitably pull the plug when it ceases to be value for money,, regardless of what Ukrainian public opinion says, rest assured I will return to say “I told you so”.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by jfman

So when are you off to sign up, keyboard warrior?

Spare me your childish insults.

If 30% (by your own poll) of Ukrainians don’t want to fight then neither you, nor Zelensky, nor their neighbours inside or outside have the right to condemn them to death or injury on the front line by conscription.

When America inevitably pull the plug when it ceases to be value for money,, regardless of what Ukrainian public opinion says, rest assured I will return to say “I told you so”.

I have done far more for Ukraine that you have done so please spare the trolling.

Enough now ...

[jfman]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I have done far more for Ukraine that you have done so please spare the trolling.

Enough now ...

Quite the accusation of trolling from someone it took more than 3 attempts to finally quit misrepresenting my posts.

Doing anything for Ukraine won’t cleanse the soul given your bloodlust for a permanent conflict regardless of the cost in the lives of Ukrainian conscripts.

and thats enough. Enjoy your rest from this one comrade.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I have done far more for Ukraine that you have done .

and your best outcome is? I'm .......still...........all ears

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Pierre

and your best outcome is? I'm .......still...........all ears

Still waiting. No worries though. I think I have all I need.

What was the question?

I wasnt aware members were on deadlines set by Pierre, I must have missed that memo ...

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

What was the question?

I'm not sure anyone knows ...

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

What was the question?

It was following this statement.

Originally Posted by ianch99

Although they are reluctant to say it outright, both John and Pierre seem to believe that appeasement is the best outcome in Ukraine.They witter on about "ritual human sacrifice" and "to the last man, no matter the cost." yet ignore the fact that it is the Ukrainians themselves who are wanting to defend their country. The West is not making them defend their homes and their families.

I was just enquiring what Ian’s best outcome was, to no avail.

---------- Post added at 21:20 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

I'm not sure anyone knows ...

It’s right there, for the third time of asking.

Still waiting.

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:20 ----------

Originally Posted by Paul

I wasnt aware members were on deadlines set by Pierre, I must have missed that memo ...

No worries, no deadlines were set.

Ta

The best outcome in 2024 IMO is that Ukraine prevents significant advances by Russia. It shouldn’t have come to this but posturing in the US Congress held up military aid for months and Ukraine has been forced to ration its stockpiles. Russia now knows it has to push hard to get what it can before the new tranche of aid gets to the front. Ukraine will have a few sticky months but it will hold on.

The offensive we hoped to see in summer of 2023 will likely occur this time next year.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ta

The best outcome in 2024 IMO is that Ukraine prevents significant advances by Russia. It shouldn’t have come to this but posturing in the US Congress held up military aid for months and Ukraine has been forced to ration its stockpiles. Russia now knows it has to push hard to get what it can before the new tranche of aid gets to the front. Ukraine will have a few sticky months but it will hold on.

The offensive we hoped to see in summer of 2023 will likely occur this time next year.

I had already replied to this question i.e. we should support the wishes of the Ukrainian people in their fight against the invasion. What the result of this support will be is uncertain. This is in the hands of the West, in terms of the support they will give and in the hands of the Ukrainian people themselves if they decide that they are unable to fight Russia on their own.

As I mentioned, the will to fight still seems strong so we (the West) should give them all the help they need to resist the occupation. I feel appeasement, as history tells us, would be a mistake.

Don't forget that the reason why Pierre wants someone to guess at the "best outcome" is so he can underwrite his position that Ukraine "negotiates" a deal that would leaves Russia in control of large swathes of occupied Ukraine. His words:

I think that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia. I ,personally, don't believe it is a war Ukraine can win. (i.e removing Russia totally from all of Ukraine)

Remember that Ukraine, on its own, has no bargaining position so Russia would essentially dictate terms. This is what, it seems, is the "desired outcome" for some here.

I tend to agree.

The absence of war is not the same thing as peace. There is highly credible evidence of rape and torture of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in the occupied territories, as well as the kidnap and ‘re-education’ of Ukrainian children on an almost industrial scale. An armistice in which Russia retains control of any Ukrainian territory simply surrenders those people to their fate as well as giving Russia breathing room to regroup and then come back for more. Anyone who thinks this is not what would happen, 5 or 10 years from now, has not been paying attention to how Russia has been treating its near abroad for the last 20 years or more.

Regretfully, the only way Ukraine can have actual peace is to fight for it, and the only way it can do that is with Western support because Russia’s material advantages far outweighs Ukraine’s. Ukraine’s best weapon - apart from Western munitions - is that Russia’s imperial arrogance is such that it never troubled itself to develop strategy or weapons tech that could actually overcome a peer. They thought they could just roll into Kyiv and once that became untenable, they have resorted to using their surfeit of expendable men and rusty old tanks to try to win by weight of numbers. As long as Ukraine has the weapons to absorb this, eventually - even if it takes another year or more - Russia can and will be exhausted.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

The best outcome in 2024 IMO is that Ukraine prevents significant advances by Russia.

They've being doing that for 12 months, the lines haven't changed significantly for a year.

Russia, I think, for the time being is content to hold what they have taken.

Russia now knows it has to push hard to get what it can before the new tranche of aid gets to the front.

Does it though. You don't think that Russia's economy and industry hasn't been on a war footing while there's been a pause, you don't think Russia is re-arming and re-grouping?

The offensive we hoped to see in summer of 2023 will likely occur this time next year.

We've had a year of essentially two punch drunk fighters not doing too much, the odd swing from a missile or drone. They've punched each other out. So what do you think two rested and re-armed fighters are going to do, probably just beat each other to a pulp again.

---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:36 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Don't forget that the reason why Pierre wants someone to guess at the "best outcome" is so he can underwrite his position that Ukraine "negotiates" a deal that would leaves Russia in control of large swathes of occupied Ukraine.

That's because, I believe, that Ukraine will struggle to achieve their objectives of pushing Russia back to pre-2014 boundaries.

So the difference between my best outcome and yours is not different in regards to Russia, in say 2-3 years time, still controlling large swathes of occupied Ukraine.

I believe the only difference between both our scenarios is less people die in mine.