Russia has invaded Ukraine

[BenMcr]

Originally Posted by Pierre

But they promised it’s security……….

Which of the following have the US and UK broken?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances

According to the memorandum,[22] Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:

Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[23]
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.[19][24]

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

He won’t surrender, so this continues unless he’s replaced or a negotiated settlement is conducted.

Or the Russian army could be defeated.

The Ukrainian Defence officials announced on Monday that Ukrainian forces had successfully re-taken the eastern city of Chuhuiv after Russian troops captured it. The General Staff said the defending forces had seized the city from the Russians and inflicted heavy losses on Putin's men in both personnel and equipment, killing two high-ranking Russian commanders. Meanwhile, the governor of Ukraine's Mykolayiv region says Ukrainian forces have now retaken the regional airport from Russian forces. As fighting enters its 12th day, Ukraine's military now estimates that 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in fighting along with the loss of 1,000 armoured vehicles, 290 tanks, 68 helicopters, 46 planes and dozens of other piece of hardware. Independent observers give lower totals, but Franz-Stefan Gady - of the International Institute for Strategic Studies - said the situation is never-the-less "slowly becoming unsustainable for Russia".

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...dymyr-zelensky

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

This isn't giving him a way out, it's giving him a huge victory. One of the conditions will almost certainly be that sanctions are removed as well.

This is a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia, not Russia and the rest of the world.

Putin has now made Russia a pariah state, no other country is compelled to promise Russia anything.

So he would have won a compliant government in Ukraine

Not compliant as in Belarus compliant, but just one that doesn’t join NATO or the EU.

Crimea officially recognised as Russian and two new puppet 'independent' states. Huge success for Putin and a reward for his aggression.

He already has them.

We can't keep making concessions to his violence and bullying.

We’re not the ones being killed.

It has ramifications beyond Ukraine to all of Europe.

None NATO countries maybe

He'll just do it again and once again it'll be 'Well, you need to give him something'.

maybe p, maybe not.

We need him to lose and be seen to lose.

That will be totally unacceptable to him. Do you really want to back him into a corner so far……and gamble on what he may or may not do?

Even if he gets the above via violence at least the sanctions will damage Russia's economy to the point it cost too much and not only does it make him think twice about another invasion but Russia won't have the economic ability to wage another war.

I think Russia has proven how weak they actually are, I think if this is resolved in this negotiation Putin goes away. They don’t have the military muscle they think they have, he gets off without looking weak and retires with his millions.

A senior Pentagon official said Monday that 500 more American troops will be deployed to Europe

The official added that Putin had moved nearly all of his pre-staged troops -- estimated to be over 150,000 -- into Ukraine - AFP News Agency.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

That was not the statement you answered…

It’s a side issue, yes, and maybe the wording of the Budapest memorandum gives the U.K. and US a way out. Ukraine has not been directly threatened “with” nuclear weapons but they have been directly attacked by a “nuclear” power…..so it comes down to interpretation, but you have to admit …..since 2014. We’ve hung Ukraine out to dry.

Our failure to act then has facilitated this. If we’d have been as united as we are now with sanctions etc, then this probably wouldn’t have got to this.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mick

A senior Pentagon official said Monday that 500 more American troops will be deployed to Europe

The official added that Putin had moved nearly all of his pre-staged troops -- estimated to be over 150,000 -- into Ukraine - AFP News Agency.

Apparently 95% according to most reports.

Tactically it doesn't add up and seems to bolster Putin's opinion that it would be a walkover.

Following hostilities with Russia in 2014, Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants), not counting additional forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service. The current size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 250,000 (215,000 military personnel), makes it the second largest in the region after the Russian Armed Forces. In 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered an increase in the size of the forces by 100,000 by 2025, while ending conscription in 2024. Conscription will be replaced with short-term intensive military training.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by BenMcr

Which of the following have the US and UK broken?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances

Well this is the grey area isn’t it.

Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

If Ukraine has nuclear weapons, they’re not getting invaded. They are persuaded by three other nuclear powers to give up their nuclear weapons on condition that they will not be threatened with nuclear weapons.

Now they are invaded by a nuclear power, although not directly threatened with the use of nuclear weapons, but now we’re into semantics.

At the very least the U.K. and US should have gone to the UN ( which in itself is crazy because one of the permanent members of the security council is the aggressor)

What ever way you slice it, Ukraine has been betrayed for giving up its nuclear weapons.

---------- Post added at 21:58 ---------- Previous post was at 21:57 ----------

Originally Posted by pip08456

Or the Russian army could be defeated.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...dymyr-zelensky

I’d rather not be in a position to see Putin in a no win situation.

I was listening to a podcast a few weeks ago about Ukraine and they pointed out that it was unlikely Ukraine would have wanted to keep the nukes for long. They didn't have the capability to secure them and make them fully functional nor a nuclear program to renew them at the end of life which they would have to have done as no one would supply them.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well this is the grey area isn’t it.



If Ukraine has nuclear weapons, they’re not getting invaded. They are persuaded by three other nuclear powers to give up their nuclear weapons on condition that they will not be threatened with nuclear weapons.

Now they are invaded by a nuclear power, although not directly threatened with the use of nuclear weapons, but now we’re into semantics.

At the very least the U.K. and US should have gone to the UN ( which in itself is crazy because one of the permanent members of the security council is the aggressor)

What ever way you slice it, Ukraine has been betrayed for giving up its nuclear weapons.

---------- Post added at 21:58 ---------- Previous post was at 21:57 ----------



I’d rather not be in a position to see Putin in a no win situation.

They did - Russia vetoed it…

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112802

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Friday that would have demanded that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops, a move several Council members said was deplorable, but inevitable.

Russian dissent grows with their own leader, as of yesterday, 4,631 Russians were arrested in 64 cities for opposing Putin’s war. Russian charity OVD calculates 13,028 Russians have now been arrested since start of invasion 12 days ago. - Alex Thomson, Channel 4 News.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1500943110477647872?s=21



No need to send them if they’re already there…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

They did - Russia vetoed it…

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112802

Hence my continuing text in brackets.

( which in itself is crazy because one of the permanent members of the security council is the aggressor)

This now means that the Security council is defunct. The UN Security Council is no longer fit for purpose. This will have much larger ramifications.

The UN needs to sort itself out, as a permanent member of the security council invoking a veto when it is the aggressor noted:

undermines the purpose of the Security Council. It is a violation of the very foundation of the U.N. Charter,

Norways UN Ambassador.

Morgan Stanley predicts Venezuela-style default in Russia by mid-spring.

Investors have already valued the country’s 2023 bonds at about 29 cents on the U.S. dollar, the lowest figure in history according to data collected by Bloomberg.

Originally Posted by Mick

Russian dissent grows with their own leader, as of yesterday, 4,631 Russians were arrested in 64 cities for opposing Putin’s war. Russian charity OVD calculates 13,028 Russians have now been arrested since start of invasion 12 days ago. - Alex Thomson, Channel 4 News.

Not sure what to make of these protests. Are these the more liberal-minded people of Russia and in a minority? Students, academics and so on? Or is this reflective of a deeper feeling within Russia? The majority of protests have been in Moscow and Saint Petersburg which are the more liberal cities anyway although they probably contain people with more influence as well.

I am worried we're seeing what we want to see.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’d rather not be in a position to see Putin in a no win situation.

That is where he is now though.