The future of television

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

As discussed in another thread a couple of days ago…

Thank you, didn’t see that. However…

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-r...ne-only-switch

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Thank you, didn’t see that. However…

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-r...ne-only-switch

That’s just a different website reporting the same story, and making the same mistakes - namely, conflating online delivery with on-demand viewing (one enables the other, but they are not the same thing); and failing to adequately address the capability gap between what Davie might like to do and what technology will permit him to do.

His comments are so heavily caveated as to be almost meaningless - they know they won’t be able to reach every part of the UK online by 2030. They are going to have to continue using at least one traditional broadcast method well beyond then to ensure coverage. And therefore, even if for that reason alone, they are of necessity committed to a full programme schedule.

Even after they go streaming only, there’s a strong argument for maintaining a drop schedule (one episode per week, a la Amazon, Disney, as opposed to series drops, like Netflix) to try to maintain engagement over a longer period. There’s also the fact that the BBC and ITV produce a lot of live light entertainment as well as live news and current affairs, plus continuing dramas like Eastenders and Coronation street which can’t be dropped in one go because there’s always more to come, and permitting binge watching would destroy the entire marketing strategy for these shows.

All in all it is vanishingly unlikely that they are going to stop doing appointment to view event TV so they can become like just A. N. Other streaming platform. Why would they swap their advantage for anonymity?

[jfman]

Welcome back, OB!

[OLD BOY]

https://www.pocket-lint.com/tv/news/...al-tv-channels

I’m gobsmacked. And they said it could never happen!

[EXTRACT]

The BBC's director-general has revealed that the corporation is planning for a future without its terrestrial TV channels.

Tim Davie told the Royal Television Society that the Beeb could move towards an internet-only model within the next decade.

That means the likes of BBC One, Two, Three and Four will no longer be available on Freeview or other digital TV platforms. In fact, the existing channels could be united under just one brand - The BBC.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

https://www.pocket-lint.com/tv/news/...al-tv-channels

I’m gobsmacked. And they said it could never happen!

[EXTRACT]

The BBC's director-general has revealed that the corporation is planning for a future without its terrestrial TV channels.

Tim Davie told the Royal Television Society that the Beeb could move towards an internet-only model within the next decade.

That means the likes of BBC One, Two, Three and Four will no longer be available on Freeview or other digital TV platforms. In fact, the existing channels could be united under just one brand - The BBC.

You do know that’s the same story now posted three times on this forum, including twice in this thread (both times by you)? And it’s no more convincing now than it was the first time.

[OLD BOY]

You didn’t notice that Tim Davie was talking about the next 10 years, then. That’s even more ambitious than the prediction I made in 2015.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You didn’t notice that Tim Davie was talking about the next 10 years, then. That’s even more ambitious than the prediction I made in 2015.

I did. However, what you didn’t seem to notice is:

1. You posted the same speech, three times, from ISP Review, then the Guardian, and now Pocket Lint;
2. You weren’t even first to do so - Hugh posted the ISP Review item in another thread last week;
3. Which means that last week (and also again earlier this week to humour you), the weaknesses of those reports and the caveats in Davie’s own speech have already been addressed.

For the ‘n’th time: IP delivery ≠ video on demand. Your prediction in 2015 was that by 2025 British TV would be VOD only. It quite obviously won’t be. According to Davie’s speech the BBC will be unable to deliver an exclusively VOD service by 2035, which is the date you later claimed to have predicted.

IP is a content delivery mechanism, VOD is one of the ways it can be utilised. And from Davie’s own observations, while they might want to move to exclusively IP delivery (which is *not* equivalent to VOD), even as early as 2030, they won’t be able to because there are too many barriers to access, in terms of cost and widespread deployment of sufficiently fast internet to UK homes. Even if they intended to accompany their move to exclusively IP delivery with exclusively on-demand menus a la Netflix, they could not do so, because for an indeterminate time they are going to have to continue to make their content available by at least one traditional method (most likely satellite IMO). If for that reason alone, they will not be abandoning linear broadcast TV in 2030.

But by all means go on pretending you’re not reading this stuff. You’ve been pretending not to be on the forum for weeks now …

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You didn’t notice that Tim Davie was talking about the next 10 years, then. That’s even more ambitious than the prediction I made in 2015.

Here’s the actual speech, not the sound bites and paraphrasing by others.

https://rts.org.uk/article/leading-u...dcast%20allows.

There is nothing in the speech about closing down OTA broadcasting in 10 years - the nearest thing is when he says

A switch off of broadcast will and should happen over time, and we should be active in planning for it.

Imagine a world that is internet only, where broadcast TV and radio are being switched off and choice is infinite. There’s still a lot of live linear viewing but it is all been delivered online.

Over time this will mean fewer linear broadcast services and a more tailored joined up online offer.

Fewer linear broadcast services, not the end of linear broadcast services.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

I did. However, what you didn’t seem to notice is:

1. You posted the same speech, three times, from ISP Review, then the Guardian, and now Pocket Lint;
2. You weren’t even first to do so - Hugh posted the ISP Review item in another thread last week;
3. Which means that last week (and also again earlier this week to humour you), the weaknesses of those reports and the caveats in Davie’s own speech have already been addressed.

For the ‘n’th time: IP delivery ≠ video on demand. Your prediction in 2015 was that by 2025 British TV would be VOD only. It quite obviously won’t be. According to Davie’s speech the BBC will be unable to deliver an exclusively VOD service by 2035, which is the date you later claimed to have predicted.

IP is a content delivery mechanism, VOD is one of the ways it can be utilised. And from Davie’s own observations, while they might want to move to exclusively IP delivery (which is *not* equivalent to VOD), even as early as 2030, they won’t be able to because there are too many barriers to access, in terms of cost and widespread deployment of sufficiently fast internet to UK homes. Even if they intended to accompany their move to exclusively IP delivery with exclusively on-demand menus a la Netflix, they could not do so, because for an indeterminate time they are going to have to continue to make their content available by at least one traditional method (most likely satellite IMO). If for that reason alone, they will not be abandoning linear broadcast TV in 2030.

But by all means go on pretending you’re not reading this stuff. You’ve been pretending not to be on the forum for weeks now …

The emboldened part of your response just shows that you are being deliberately provocative. I have always talked about 20 years’ time (from 2015) and when the ‘2025’ misunderstanding crept in, I corrected it - that was in 2016. You know that, because I have clarified it many times.The 2025 claim related to broadband rollout, and that was based on government statements made at the time, which were later modified.

I posted the latest item because it clarified that Davie was actually looking at merging the BBC channels into one ‘BBC’ and closing down the terrestrial channels within a decade. That is the most definite statement I believe he has made about this.

Yes, I maintain we will be VOD only by 2035, and if you don’t understand that’s what Davie is talking about when he says ‘one BBC’ instead of BBC1, BBC2, etc, then I really don’t know what you are trying to say here.

I am sticking to my guns on this one. I believe that we will be VOD only in the near future and everything will be online. I am drawing attention to the fact that events do seem to lead to the conclusion that what I thought would happen is likely to come to pass.

You (and certain others on here) may think different. That’s cool, I don’t mind. Strange that you are getting so exercised about the prospect.

PS - What do you think he means by ‘one BBC’?

---------- Post added at 17:15 ---------- Previous post was at 16:50 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Here’s tag actual speech, not the sound bites and paraphrasing by others.

https://rts.org.uk/article/leading-u...dcast%20allows.

There is nothing in the speech about closing down OTA broadcasting in 10 years - the nearest thing is when he says





Fewer linear broadcast services, not the end of linear broadcast services.

Thank you for the full speech. In my post I was relying on the pocket link article which stated:

That means the likes of BBC One, Two, Three and Four will no longer be available on Freeview or other digital TV platforms. In fact, the existing channels could be united under just one brand - The BBC.

I do accept Chris’s point about the technology not keeping pace with what the media wants to do, but actually it is the rollout of broadband that is the issue here, not our technical capability. Clearly, given the universality requirement of the BBC’s services, if the broadband isn’t available to a significant number of households, then the service needs to be delivered in a different way. My assumption has always been that full rollout would be achieved by 2035.

If the government decide against the subscription model after all, then, yes, I guess the urgency of this in the government’s eyes will be lessened and the process may take longer. That has not yet happened, however.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see, won’t we? By the way, it was linear channels I said would go, not linear broadcasts. You can already get linear broadcasts on the live part of the BBC I-Player. In the future, I believe that these will be accessed by category rather than by TV channel as they are now.

OB, you state

I maintain we will be VOD only by 2035

And the BBC Director-General states

Over time this will mean fewer linear broadcast services and a more tailored joined up online offer

Who do you think has a more accurate view?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

OB, you state



And the BBC Director-General states



Who do you think has a more accurate view?

He did, but he didn’t say ‘linear channels’, and as for whether there are any terrestrial services at all, that will be dependent on whether space must be given up to other services.

We can only base any predictions on what we know when we make that prediction. If things change, then of course that will impact on the prediction. Mine was predicated by having broadband fully rolled out by the early 2030s, the transmitters being no longer available for broadcast and the subscription model being approved for the BBC to replace the licence fee next time around.

I accept that if any of these things do not happen, that will jeopardise the original prediction.

Could you link to the OP that states those three things, please?

[jfman]

Interestingly, had OB read ISP Review beyond simply plucking a headline that suits his narrative there's a couple of worrying signs for commercial broadband deployment in the UK.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...hallenges.html

Very low penetration rates, ouch.

Now nobody really disputes it'll get there, or that viewing over time will migrate towards online. As I've pointed out before - linear over the internet is still linear. Although I doubt it'll go all online as soon as predicted in any case. The infrastructure simply won't be there in particular in rural areas.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Interestingly, had OB read ISP Review beyond simply plucking a headline that suits his narrative there's a couple of worrying signs for commercial broadband deployment in the UK.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...hallenges.html

Very low penetration rates, ouch.

Now nobody really disputes it'll get there, or that viewing over time will migrate towards online. As I've pointed out before - linear over the internet is still linear. Although I doubt it'll go all online as soon as predicted in any case. The infrastructure simply won't be there in particular in rural areas.

Linear over the internet is indeed linear, but I‘ve never queried that. I said that the linear ‘channels’ like BBC1, 2, 3, 4 will disappear. Linear broadcasts obviously won’t because then you wouldn’t be able to get live news and sport, for example.

I agree that if the government misses its broadband rollout targets, we won’t be likely to achieve the end of linear channels by 2035.

Incidentally, I should clarify that we may still have FAST channels if they can be commercially viable, but these are different. They tend to show old programmes in the main and are often focussed on certain limited types of programme or personalities. I can’t see them lasting that long, to be honest, but you never know. I certainly don’t expect any of them to enjoy mass audiences or even audiences that are anywhere near as large as even our minor channels.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Linear over the internet is indeed linear, but I‘ve never queried that. I said that the linear ‘channels’ like BBC1, 2, 3, 4 will disappear. Linear broadcasts obviously won’t because then you wouldn’t be able to get live news and sport, for example.

I agree that if the government misses its broadband rollout targets, we won’t be likely to achieve the end of linear channels by 2035.

Incidentally, I should clarify that we may still have FAST channels if they can be commercially viable, but these are different. They tend to show old programmes in the main and are often focussed on certain limited types of programme or personalities. I can’t see them lasting that long, to be honest, but you never know. I certainly don’t expect any of them to enjoy mass audiences or even audiences that are anywhere near as large as even our minor channels.

So linear channels in all but name will exist.

Do you even know what the Government targets are for broadband rollout, OB?

It’s an important distinction OB that your belief has an ever increasing number of caveats while the rest of us are comfortable in our own analysis as we have been throughout. Too many dependencies - public and private sector investment, regulatory intervention and consumer behaviour are required to hit a target we believe is wholly unrealistic.