Coronavirus

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That is strange post coming from you, jfman. Let’s start at the beginning. Wasn’t it you who said that the National debt was not important?

Make up your mind, old chap!!

I fail to see the contradiction.

Where’s that repayment plan? What cuts/tax rises are being proposed to clear this worrying £2 trillion of debt?

Topic?You are veering away from it and so let us get back to it.

[Sephiroth]

I did a fag packet calculation. Based on the % of adult population given in the daily stats as at 28-August:

Adult population = 55 million.
78% fully vaccinated = 43 million
88% partly vaccinated = 48 million. I'll take the 45 million mid point of vaccination status.

10 million adults are up for statistical grabs. Let's assume 33,333 new case per day.

Then at that rate it would take 300 days if nobody else was vaccinated for the UK's adults to be loaded with anti-bodies.

The second dose daily rated is c. 128,000 which is closing the gap 4x faster than the infection rate. So, the two rate would converge within 3 months, possibly 2 months.

CONCLUSION: No need for any more lock-downs because the hospitals are running at a fraction of the cases as compared with January.

Anyone disagree?

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

CONCLUSION: No need for any more lock-downs because the hospitals are running at a fraction of the cases as compared with January.

Anyone disagree?

Nope.

Yes.

You appear to be basing your calculations on a number of erroneous assumptions.

A) the vaccines are 100% effective
B) no new variants come along which are more infectious/debilitating/lethal
C) because the hospitals aren’t as busy as they were in January, they’re not busy/ICUs aren’t full (currently around 1k in ventilation beds, vs 4K in January)

[Sephiroth]

What I didn't say, because it seemed fairly obvious to me, is that once the two phenomena (vaccinations & positives) converge, Covid will be treated as something akin to flu. Annual jabs and all that.

Originally Posted by Hugh

Yes.

You appear to be basing your calculations on a number of erroneous assumptions.

A) the vaccines are 100% effective
B) no new variants come along which are more infectious/debilitating/lethal
C) because the hospitals aren’t as busy as they were in January, they’re not busy/ICUs aren’t full (currently around 1k in ventilation beds, vs 4K in January)

A) Where did he state that ?
B) That applies to any virus, including the obvious 'flu'. If you based lockdowns on such a "might happen" we'd never stop.
C) ICU's have always been busy, the point is they are not overrun, nor complaining they might be (certainly not around here anyway).

[mrmistoffelees]

The higher the level of covid cases the more people will need hospital treatment. This in itself causes an issue as the NHS try to make a dent in the backlog of cases.

A couple of other thoughts

1) we’re about to move to that time of year where we spend most of our time socialising indoors

2) a percentage of the populations immunity is already on the wane, whilst boosters are coming online we could potentially see spikes due to this too.

I do love how some people act so blasé in all of this, they must be expert virologists & immunologists

[nomadking]

The Delta variant still infects vaccinated people and their virus levels are similar to unvaccinated people. Also vaccinated people can pass on the Delta variant, which increases the potential for new variants to pop up.
CDC

Second, new data began to emerge that the Delta variant was more infectious and was leading to increased transmissibility when compared with other variants, even in some vaccinated individuals. This includes recently published data from CDC and our public health partners, unpublished surveillance data that will be publicly available in the coming weeks, information included in CDC’s updated Science Brief on COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination, and ongoing outbreak investigations linked to the Delta variant.
...
The Delta variant causes more infections and spreads faster than early forms of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19
The Delta variant is more contagious: The Delta variant is highly contagious, more than 2x as contagious as previous variants.

• Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated people.

...
Everyone who is able, including fully vaccinated people, should wear masks in public indoor places in areas of substantial or high transmission.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

The higher the level of covid cases the more people will need hospital treatment. This in itself causes an issue as the NHS try to make a dent in the backlog of cases.

A couple of other thoughts

1) we’re about to move to that time of year where we spend most of our time socialising indoors

2) a percentage of the populations immunity is already on the wane, whilst boosters are coming online we could potentially see spikes due to this too.

I do love how some people act so blasé in all of this, they must be expert virologists & immunologists

Unfortunately I knew a bloke that was blasé about it. He's now dead. True he did have an underlying lung condition and not in the best of health, but had been double jabbed.

This virus is still potentially fatal to a signicant number of people. Those that aren't vulnerable but don't take precautions because they only think about themselves need to reflect on their potential to be life threatening to others. Something as simple as a mask in enclosed spaces isn't a big ask.

[Taf]

A big jump to perhaps 180+ tomorrow.

You'd think that after all this time, case reporting would have become standardised, and not still on a random 7-day cycle.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The Delta variant still infects vaccinated people and their virus levels are similar to unvaccinated people. Also vaccinated people can pass on the Delta variant, which increases the potential for new variants to pop up.
CDC

In other words, people should get vaccinated. Problem solved.

There will still be some people who fall ill, and an even lower proportion who need hospital treatment and some will die.

But other viruses and other types of illness do that, too. We mustn’t get this out of proportion. Further restrictions will not be necessary unless something very significant arises in the meantime.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

In other words, people should get vaccinated. Problem solved.

There will still be some people who fall ill, and an even lower proportion who need hospital treatment and some will die.

But other viruses and other types of illness do that, too. We mustn’t get this out of proportion. Further restrictions will not be necessary unless something very significant arises in the meantime.

Can't work out if I clicked into the oldest posts in the thread or the newest one.

The problem with waiting until "something significant" happens rather than a proportionate measure to something that falls below the threshold of "significant" is that your response then is lockdown because it's too late. Fundamentally, you didn't think the original outbreak was significant enough and here we are, 150 000 deaths later despite lockdowns. Who knows what it'd have been without them.

Once you're in actual lockdown that's it for months as the road to easing restrictions gets trodden a further time.

Sensible measures should be considered to prevent lockdown if cases are seen to rise exponentially. Hospitalisations and deaths only follow, albeit at a lower rate than previously.

Without sensible measures people will only stay home themselves and not spend money in any case. City centres will never recover.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

<SNIP>

Once you're in actual lockdown that's it for months as the road to easing restrictions gets trodden a further time.

Sensible measures should be considered to prevent lockdown if cases are seen to rise exponentially. Hospitalisations and deaths only follow, albeit at a lower rate than previously.

Without sensible measures people will only stay home themselves and not spend money in any case. City centres will never recover.

I did the maths a few posts ago. Sensible measures have been taken by way of past lockdowns and an accelerating vaccination programme. The convergence of vaccinations and antibodies through infections is not many months (or weeks) away. Then we move into normalcy as per annual booster/variant jabs.

As regards city centres - yes, the damage has been done, I would say. At least in the short term.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I did the maths a few posts ago. Sensible measures have been taken by way of past lockdowns and an accelerating vaccination programme. The convergence of vaccinations and antibodies through infections is not many months (or weeks) away. Then we move into normalcy as per annual booster/variant jabs.

As regards city centres - yes, the damage has been done, I would say. At least in the short term.

If the numbers converge yes, however the ONS studies have the number of people with antibodies falling. There are emerging cases of reinfection and people double vaccinated are becoming infected.

So while the theory is sound it certainly feels like there's a lot more at play.