Russia has invaded Ukraine

[jfman]

Is it not then easier, and more cost effective, for Ukraine to surrender to the NATO border rather than sacrifice themselves for it?

We wouldn’t be debating F-16s then.

What do you mean by ‘surrender to the Nato border’?

[jfman]

As was suggested. Surrender their entire territory so that NATO can play toy soldiers with their own toy soldiers, and provide sufficient defensive and offensive ammunition for the next phase of an inevitable never ending war?

If that’s not most cost effective, in terms of Ukrainian lives or money, I’m open to idea on how the drip feeding of resource that won’t achieve anything meaningful is advantageous to Ukranian conscripts.

I do not, for a second, subscribe to the “til the last Ukrainian” narrative - but if I do accept it I he last Ukranian lives under a NATO shield (ironically in Poland).

It’s a fact easy to be lost among some as they white knight Ukranian women refugees.

The problem Ukraine has at present is that Nato will not admit a member already at war and not in control of its whole territory. Putin has a viable plan B, if his army is unable to conquer the country - and it plainly isn’t; its present micro-advances are coming at immense human and material cost - then he can keep it in a state of permanent-war, thereby keeping Ukraine out of Nato. Once Ukraine is in Nato, his dream of a greater Russia is dead.

[jfman]

Ukraine has far more problems than that, to be fair.

The fallacy is believing on a “a once Ukraine is in NATO”. There’s Poland and disputed territory now. Unless Poland invade from the other side, proving the Russian point.

Ukraine ceases to exist in any meaningful way - no return of the refugees - and thus a rump state headed by the Zelensky regime that none of its neighbours takes seriously.

Unless of course the F-16s turn up

I suspect you may be surprised - pleasantly, I hope - on the F-16 front, within the next 3 to 4 months.

Supposed territorial disputes between Ukraine and Poland, or Ukraine and Hungary, are part of Russia’s info-ops campaign and un-serious. Ukraine’s international boundaries are uncontested and established at the United Nations.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

I suspect you may be surprised - pleasantly, I hope - on the F-16 front, within the next 3 to 4 months.

Supposed territorial disputes between Ukraine and Poland, or Ukraine and Hungary, are part of Russia’s info-ops campaign and un-serious. Ukraine’s international boundaries are uncontested and established at the United Nations.

Disputed territory is disputed territory. The only question is whether you think dead Ukrainians is a price worth paying on the way to defeat.

Russia will down every F-16 within a month. And I assure everyone I’ll lament the death of the conscript in the cockpit. In case there is any doubt.

Disputed territory is disputed territory

Made up propaganda from the Putin regime is made-up propaganda - you’re not even pretending anymore…

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88585

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov theorized that Poland would use this idea as a pretext for seizing control over western Ukraine. Soon thereafter, the SVR began regularly reporting on Poland’s alleged plans to annex Ukrainian territories.

On April 28, Naryshkin said that Poland was preparing to enter western Ukraine as part of a coalition of “interested countries.” On June 30, the SVR claimed that Poland was considering a scenario for partitioning Ukraine because it did not expect Kyiv to win. On July 12, Naryshkin followed up by contending that Warsaw was “nervous” and trying to “disavow its plans” because the SVR had revealed them.

Other Russian officials have also spoken about Poland’s “predatory plans,” including the controversial presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Russia’s ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov. The most recent wave of such statements began in the late fall, coming directly from Putin.

In reality, of course, Polish officials have never made any statements questioning the territorial integrity of Ukraine, to whom Warsaw remains a staunch ally. The idea of a NATO peacekeeping mission has never been anything more than a proposal by Kaczyński, who does not currently hold any official positions

[jfman]

So it’s not disputed territory?

Originally Posted by jfman

So it’s not disputed territory?

Not on the basis of anything Russia says, no. And there is no credible evidence of anyone else disputing Ukraine’s borders as established at the UN in 1991 either.

Thanks for the prediction re the survivability of the F-16s though. That’s a firm prediction we can easily evaluate a month after they are confirmed to be in active service in Ukraine.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Not on the basis of anything Russia says, no. And there is no credible evidence of anyone else disputing Ukraine’s borders as established at the UN in 1991 either.

Thanks for the prediction re the survivability of the F-16s though. That’s a firm prediction we can easily evaluate a month after they are confirmed to be in active service in Ukraine.

I’m more than happy to have my speculation held against event when they come to pass. It’s the crux of my argument that Ukrainian conscripts are mere fodder on the front line for a regime out of ideas.

I doubt any F-16s will be airborne in combat under the Zelensky regime for more than mere hours but I feel that’s splitting hairs for now.

I’m not quite sure why 1991 borders have more value than say, 1946 other than for academic reasons.