Russia has invaded Ukraine

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Paul

Looks like much of his own military have been looking for a reason to back out of the war, and this is providing the perfect excuse - switch sides.

I would agree Paul, however I don't think Prigozhin's excuse is genuine nor his starvation of ammunition true. I think he's been planning this for at least 2 months and has the resources to bring it to fruition. Once he had effectively taken Bahkmut he pulled his forces out back to Rostov on Don for R&R allegedly. It seems now it was for a different reason.

He also has very good contacts in the GUR which may provide tanks and artillery to him as well as the Spetznaz, something to watch out for going forward.

This posted by Devana (Ukrainian) today of a post by Prigozhin on a telegram channel.

https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/st...73119364583426

BREAKING: The Wagner Group has taken control of prisons in the Rostov region and is releasing prisoners in return for them joining the Wagner Group.

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- The European Union has activated its crisis response centre in response to Russia developments

- Belarus decries Wagner Group, suggesting it’s a gift to the West.

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- Putin signs in to law 30-day detentions for breaching Martial law.

[pip08456]

An interesting analysis in the Atlantic.

The hall of mirrors that Vladimir Putin has built around himself and within his country is so complex, and so multilayered, that on the eve of a genuine insurrection in Russia, I doubt very much if the Russian president himself believed it could be real.

Certainly the rest of us still can’t know, less than a day after this mutiny began, the true motives of the key players, and especially not of the central figure, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group. Prigozhin, whose fighters have taken part in brutal conflicts all over Africa and the Middle East—in Syria, Sudan, Libya, the Central African Republic—claims to command 25,000 men in Ukraine. In a statement yesterday afternoon, he accused the Russian army of killing “an enormous amount” of his mercenaries in a bombing raid on his base. Then he called for an armed rebellion, vowing to topple Russian military leaders.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...n-coup/674517/

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Another interesting post on twitter

A call to overthrow Lukashenko regime:

"Either we take this historic chance, or we will lose everything," Valery Sakhashchyk, founder of the 1st Airmobile Battalion within the Ukrainian Armed Forces and head of the National Security Department within the United Transitional Cabinet of Democratic Forces in Belarus, appealed to the Belarusian military.

https://targum.video/v/2023/6/24/4cb...8b37d9d371e74/

You gotta wonder if the ramifications of this might be worse for us than had it not happened. The kaleidoscope has been shaken.

[pip08456]

And another.

https://twitter.com/belwarriors/stat...01122467467276

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Originally Posted by Damien

You gotta wonder if the ramifications of this might be worse for us than had it not happened. The kaleidoscope has been shaken.

Putin staked everything on this, it now appears its going to be his nemisis.

- Wagner Group now reportedly TWO Hours away from Moscow City.

- They’re meeting very little Russian military resistance, inexperienced & low morale conscripts.

- The Rate in which Wagner Group are progressing could see the fall of the Kremlin within hours. (I’m pinching myself while saying this)

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mick

- Wagner Group now reportedly TWO Hours away from Moscow City.

- They’re meeting very little Russian military resistance, inexperienced & low morale conscripts.

- The Rate in which Wagner Group are progressing could see the fall of the Kremlin within hours. (I’m pinching myself while saying this)

You may be quite correct Mick, what still remains in the balance is what or how will this effect Ukraine. Prigoshin has stated the reasons for the invasion where false. Does this mean if he takes power Russian with withdraw its forces?

BREAKING: Deputy secretary of Russia's security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of 'bandits' - TASS Russian News Agency.

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: Deputy secretary of Russia's security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of 'bandits' - TASS Russian News Agency.

He's not wrong but then maybe they should have thought of that before invading Ukraine. Putin's completely screwed this.

[pip08456]

So now Prigozhin is a bandit? What does Medvedev expect the world to do? Send in NATO troops to stabalise the apparent revolution????

Who is controlling the weapons now ?

Putin may think he does, but he may find thats not quite the case if he tried to use them, especially on targets within Russia.

[Itshim]

Just a thought no basis what so ever for saying it. A setup to get Putin of the hook and withdraw .

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Itshim

Just a thought no basis what so ever for saying it. A setup to get Putin of the hook and withdraw .

Funnily enough this was posted on twitter earlier.

This is all a political play. This entire stream of events could be orchestrated by Putin to get rid of his two generals Shoigu and Gerasimov. Putin has "fired every other general". But if he fires these two right now Putin will look like a failure. He has said or done nothing about Prigozhin's rants and public outbursts. Putin cannot have both generals murdered right now either because there is too much attention from world media so he could have Prigozhin do his dirty work for him. Prigozhin has never once blamed Putin himself so perhaps he would be in charge of the Russian military if he takes out these two generals for Putin. It is just a theory but it does have some merit.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Funnily enough this was posted on twitter earlier.

He actually went out of his way to absolve Putin from blame

[Dave42]

Wagner Group leader halts advance on Moscow and agrees to de-escalate tensions | Russia Mutiny live

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...dates-12541713