Russia has invaded Ukraine

Ukraine will get its F-16s after all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine will get its F-16s after all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

Looks like this was the plan, those Ukranian pilots weren't training here for no reason.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Looks like this was the plan, those Ukranian pilots weren't training here for no reason.

It was the UK/Dutch/Danish plan for sure. There is a disturbingly large constituency in the US administration that is trying to play great power politics with Ukraine, and seems content to arm Ukraine enough to prevent Russia making further inroads but really doesn’t like the idea of what might happen to Russia if it is soundly defeated. Every major arms transfer from the US has followed pressure from European NATO members. That was a bit subtle at first, but has become increasingly blatant.

Commentators who have called this correctly at every stage (like the American war studies prof, Phillips O’Brien, who is based at St Andrews Uni here in Scotland) are saying that the F-16 announcement is such a screeching U-turn for the US that it looks like Biden has been listening to the ‘de-escalation’ faction in his administration up til now but has now personally decided to over-rule it and change direction.

[Jaymoss]

Massive kick in the teeth for Putin. Long range missiles now F 16s is quite an escalation

I don't like it

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Massive kick in the teeth for Putin. Long range missiles now F 16s is quite an escalation

I don't like it

Obvs I have no idea how old you are, but for my part I remember the early 1980s (doubtless there are folk here who also remember the Cuban missile crisis in 1962). I remember Threads on BBC1, I remember Tomorrow’s World’s ICBM special which was timed to last as long as a missile would take to get from the USSR to the USA, and I remember a new air raid siren being installed in the play park near our house.

Basically, I guess what I’m saying is things have been far worse in the past and the chances of Putin being able to launch nukes now, even if he wanted to, are very much reduced. Every red line NATO has crossed has been met with fury from Russian TV hosts and absolutely nothing whatsoever from the Russian government apart from sullen press releases. Of course there are always risks in geopolitics but I don’t think you need to worry too much.

[Jaymoss]

I am 53

Putin is a megalomaniac though. I do remember the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR. I guess we have more access to the press now with the net. I did not really take in much threat when I was young

[Sephiroth]

We can’t really call what Putin will do. If he values his own life, he won’t go nuclear. If he doesn’t value his life, anything could happen.. If it does, will the military turn the 2nd key (is there a 2nd key?)?

But he can make mischief with his submarines. If he does, there would be a de facto stature of war with the victim (the West?). The murk is very deep and I’m sure we can’t see through it.

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

I am 53

Putin is a megalomaniac though. I do remember the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR. I guess we have more access to the press now with the net. I did not really take in much threat when I was young

You old duffer. I’m a mere 50 . I guess we have the same formative experiences in the 1980s then. The thing is, Russia is not the Soviet Union. In part that explains Putin’s actions now. He wants to restore the Russian Empire. Mostly though it explains why he’s failed. The USSR was always destined to fall. Autocracies are inefficient, risk averse and prone to corruption. But while it lasted, the USSR was powerful.

Russia is not powerful. Even after 20 years of radical military reform, it failed to overrun a mid-level neighbouring democracy that was really only equipped on the assumption that it would be mounting an insurgency post-invasion. Russia’s army has been destroyed (what is deployed in Ukraine now is an armed rabble, not an army), and the whole world can now see that its navy and air force cannot operate within the range of Nato standard missiles. There is mounting evidence that the 4 Russian aircraft that were destroyed last week whilst heading towards Ukraine, but still within Russian airspace, may have been taken down by one of Ukraine’s newly installed Patriot missile systems.

Putin is a megalomaniac but he is old and likely also quite unwell. There are those high up in Russian society who are beginning to imagine a world without him and they are very unlikely to allow him to ruin that for them by allowing him to launch nuclear weapons, which would attract a devastating, albeit conventional response from Nato (the US has already indicated that it has described to Russia in some detail exactly how its military and infrastructure will be destroyed immediately following any nuclear escalation).

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine will get its F-16s after all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

The Netherlands cancelled a deal to sell it's remaining F-16s to Draken International, easy to guess where they will actually end up.

IIRC that's at least 30 F-16's

Weirdness kicking off in Russia’s Belgorod district this morning. Partisans calling themselves the “Free Russia Legion” have blown up a Russian border crossing checkpoint at Kozinka and are now fighting their way northeastwards - ever-deeper into Russia itself.

The FRL is comprised of mostly Russian nationals who have fought inside Ukraine for the Ukrainian side. There are all sorts of intriguing questions here, first of which is, is this a Ukrainian psy-op, messing with Russia’s collective mind as part of Ukraine’s battle-space shaping for its spring offensive? If it is, that implies a level of Ukrainian influence in what’s happening, which is quite something, even if Ukrainian soldiers themselves don’t venture into Russia.

And whether or not Ukraine is pulling the strings, how far is the FRL likely to get into Russia? I mean they’re never going to get anywhere near Moscow but what if they actually managed to overrun Belgorod? That would be massive.

The picture is fluid, confusing and not yet reported in mainstream media, but all the usual monitors on the Twitters have been full of it since very early this morning.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by pip08456

The Netherlands cancelled a deal to sell it's remaining F-16s to Draken International, easy to guess where they will actually end up.

IIRC that's at least 30 F-16's

I think Norway may have retired F-16's that could be diverted to Ukraine

Though it’s still far from clear what’s happening in Belgorod district, the BBC has noted it now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65674773

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I think Norway may have retired F-16's that could be diverted to Ukraine

I'm sure you're correct but the entire F-16 fleet was to be retired next year and the sale of it has been cancelled. Why? Possibly because they are going to retire them this year and let Ukraine have them? IDK.

Having checked it appears they have a total of 33.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by pip08456

I'm sure you're correct but the entire F-16 fleet was to be retired next year and the sale of it has been cncelled. Why? Possibly because they are going to retire them this year and let Ukraine have them? IDK.

Having checked it appears they have a total of 33.

Sky News reckons they won't be used until 2024. This could be the fog of war, though.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Chris

Though it’s still far from clear what’s happening in Belgorod district, the BBC has noted it now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65674773

I think the veracity of who's fighting there won't come out full until the end of the war.

The BBC report also mentions Ukraine hanging on to part of Bahkmut. I think they may have purposely pulled back due to what is happening on the flanks.

We are close to strategically encircling Bakhmut – Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/21/7403178/

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:44 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Sky News reckons they won't be used until 2024. This could be the fog of war, though.

I think that depends on how quickly the pilots, ground crew and maintainence teams can be trained.