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Local Elections 2022
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:01   #31
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Re: Local Elections 2022

BREAKING: John Curtice: Local Election results so far, show Labour would not be the Largest party in a General Election.

Quote:
The results in the local elections so far provide further evidence of the fractured nature of British politics. The Tories have done badly in London. They lost Barnet, which was widely expected. And they have also suffered defeats in Wandsworth and Westminster.

Labour have had some good results, taking Southampton from the Tories. But it is impossible to see these results as a sea change in favour of Labour. On the BBC’s numbers their vote share is only up one point on 2018, when these seats were last contested. John Curtice, the elections expert, says that these results would not guarantee that Labour would be the largest party in the next parliament.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ection-results

---------- Post added at 07:01 ---------- Previous post was at 06:51 ----------

Ouch:

Quote:
Sam Coates, Sky News Deputy Political Editor:

‘Tameside ward in Angela Rayners constituency switched from Labour to Tory’
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:12   #32
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Makes sense. The vote share and seat projections at the national level also suggest that it would be a hung Parliament similar to 2017 albeit some would have Labour as the biggest party and others not. 2017 was similar in vote share to 2018.

So Labour have recovered past 2019 but they’re not destined for government yet. They are probably a bit disappointed it isn’t more. They’ll want some signs of recovery in Scotland which is yet to count.

Lib Dems have to be the happiest party this morning.

Tories probably a bit pleased some of England wasn’t as bad as the worst fears but London has been a disaster. They didn’t expect to lose Westminster especially.

Last edited by Damien; 06-05-2022 at 08:18.
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:18   #33
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Re: Local Elections 2022

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post

So Labour have recovered past 2019 but they’re not destined for government yet.
This is saying a lot, this is after nearly 12 years of Conservative Government!
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:23   #34
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick View Post
This is saying a lot, this is after nearly 12 years of Conservative Government!
Sure but that damage was done in 2019. If the next election matches 2017 that would be a big gain in seats.

I think these results will fuel the idea of a Lib/Lab coalition if the Liberals can actually translate this into seats.
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:23   #35
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Re: Local Elections 2022

The key question is this; Will Boris Survive his premiership?

I think he may just survive by the skin of his teeth. There may be several letters arriving at 1922 Committee over next few days, some may still be waiting if there is any more fines coming his way, however, Keir Starmer could still be potentially facing a fine as Durham Constabulary, now say they’re looking in to “beergate” again and give an update in due course.
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Old 06-05-2022, 08:30   #36
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Re: Local Elections 2022

I think Johnson will survive because there isn’t an obvious alternative
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Old 06-05-2022, 09:16   #37
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Re: Local Elections 2022

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I think Johnson will survive because there isn’t an obvious alternative
The other alternative is the longer he stays, the worse it'll get for the Tories.
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Old 06-05-2022, 10:04   #38
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Makes sense. The vote share and seat projections at the national level also suggest that it would be a hung Parliament similar to 2017 albeit some would have Labour as the biggest party and others not. 2017 was similar in vote share to 2018.

So Labour have recovered past 2019 but they’re not destined for government yet. They are probably a bit disappointed it isn’t more. They’ll want some signs of recovery in Scotland which is yet to count.

Lib Dems have to be the happiest party this morning.

Tories probably a bit pleased some of England wasn’t as bad as the worst fears but London has been a disaster. They didn’t expect to lose Westminster especially.
My guess it might be local issues in Westminster. Oxford Street is a state and Westminster opposed pedestrianising it and instead wasted money on that temporary mound at Marble Arch.
Is the strong performance from the Lib Dems more a recovery from the last local elections where they underperformed?
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Old 06-05-2022, 10:05   #39
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Quote:
Originally Posted by peanut View Post
The other alternative is the longer he stays, the worse it'll get for the Tories.
Hopefully.
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Old 06-05-2022, 10:07   #40
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
I think Johnson will survive because there isn’t an obvious alternative
Favourite alternative Sunak's been dragged into Partygate too but if the Sue Gray report is damning, Johnson may have to resign.

Last edited by 1andrew1; 06-05-2022 at 11:44.
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Old 06-05-2022, 11:05   #41
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Southampton was only 17 of 48 seats up for grab so although Labour gain it's not really a huge swing.
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Old 06-05-2022, 11:40   #42
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Labour folk passing this off as very good for them, are deluded. They should have caused a huge dent, it’s not even been terminal for the Tories.
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Old 06-05-2022, 13:06   #43
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Re: Local Elections 2022

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick View Post
Labour folk passing this off as very good for them, are deluded. They should have caused a huge dent, it’s not even been terminal for the Tories.
I guess it depends on what you are measuring against. The results from Yesterday are comparing against results in 2018 where Labour did very well and the Conservatives did poorly. A modest gain on a good result is probably 'OK to good' and a further drop on a bad result is bad news for the Conservatives.

These results do reflect what a big centrist hole there is. The Liberal Democrats are filling this one nicely as the Conservatives go to the right (in some policies but not all) and there is still the hangover of Jeremy Corbyns very left policies for Labour. It will be interesting to know where the Conservative voters went in this election - did they go Lib Dem or Green or did they go all the way over to Labour. I suspect it is the former
---------------------Just added----------------------------------------
Just seem the term 'Long Corbyn' trending. That's a good description of Labours problem right now!

Last edited by jonbxx; 06-05-2022 at 13:09.
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Old 06-05-2022, 14:02   #44
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Re: Local Elections 2022

A couple of amusing election Tweets I've seen.
Quote:
David Mills The Tories have lost more flagships than the Russian navy.
https://twitter.com/DavidMills73/sta...64879558463488

Quote:
Pete Brown Anticipating events today and over the next few days, I'd just like to reassure my American followers that "Johnson out" doesn't mean what you think it does.
https://twitter.com/PeteBrownBeer/st...00200052449283
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Old 06-05-2022, 14:13   #45
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Re: Local Elections 2022

The ward I look after went Green yesterday - the (very very) long standing Labour Cllr standing for re-election is out. The Greens put in a big effort in the ward and while I was on my rounds between polling stations there were lots of people wearing green rosettes and I heard many people saying they thought it was time for a change.
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