Russia has invaded Ukraine

[Hom3r]

One thing that has had me thinking.

Growing up, the USA and the USSR were 2 superpowers with nukes aimed at each other, waiting for the other to blink.

Now Russia seems to be a weak nation with a poor military might.

They should have walked in and taken over Ukraine with minimal resistance, dare I say shooting fish in a barrel.

Now is this the real Russian military, or a massive bluff, and they have far better weapons than it appears?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Well I'm shocked, I've just watched his speach and actually agree with Guy Verhofstadt.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/s...67812137377804

He can be a bit annoying but that was a great speech.

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

One thing that has had me thinking.

Growing up, the USA and the USSR were 2 superpowers with nukes aimed at each other, waiting for the other to blink.

Now Russia seems to be a weak nation with a poor military might.

They should have walked in and taken over Ukraine with minimal resistance, dare I say shooting fish in a barrel.

Now is this the real Russian military, or a massive bluff, and they have far better weapons than it appears?

Historically speaking invading and holding a country has never been easy. Korea Vietnam Afghanistan and now Ukraine. TBH in the last 100 + years Germany is the only country had and real success with the exception of Iraq I suppose but even then...

The USSR only existed I believe because of WWII

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

One thing that has had me thinking.

Growing up, the USA and the USSR were 2 superpowers with nukes aimed at each other, waiting for the other to blink.

Now Russia seems to be a weak nation with a poor military might.

They should have walked in and taken over Ukraine with minimal resistance, dare I say shooting fish in a barrel.

Now is this the real Russian military, or a massive bluff, and they have far better weapons than it appears?

Why minimal resistance? Ukraine has been preparing for the invasion since the 2014 invasion of the Crimea.

Originally Posted by Hom3r

One thing that has had me thinking.

Growing up, the USA and the USSR were 2 superpowers with nukes aimed at each other, waiting for the other to blink.

Now Russia seems to be a weak nation with a poor military might.

They should have walked in and taken over Ukraine with minimal resistance, dare I say shooting fish in a barrel.

Now is this the real Russian military, or a massive bluff, and they have far better weapons than it appears?

You’re suffering from the very widely held myth of Russian military might. So deep is this myth, that it led to a total failure of even the most seasoned military analysts to predict Russia would have difficulties if the Ukrainians put up any resistance at all. So deep is this myth that for almost the entire first month of the conflict a great many people continued to say how sure they were that Putin’s grand master plan was about to be revealed, and Ukraine would soon be crushed.

The strength of an army does not lie in a paper record of how many troops or tanks it has. It lies in its willingness to fight, its command and control and in its logistical support. America has been so exceptionally good at logistics over the past 20 years that the world has assumed it’s easy for a great power to simply roll into another country (like Iraq, or Afghanistan) and take it over. But it isn’t.

Russian command and control is abysmal, its logistics are up the shaft, and its stockpiles of equipment are fatally compromised by decades of endemic corruption. And unlike 2014, the Ukrainians were skilled up, tooled up and waiting for them, and highly motivated to defend their homeland in a way Russian conscripts who have been pressured into signing up for regular service never will be. I’m quite sure that the maximum extent of Russian control in Ukraine has already passed. That’s not to say there aren’t hard times ahead in Luhansk and Donetsk, but from now on it will all be happening down there, and if NATO gets its act together and stops making artificial distinctions between defensive and offensive arms, and sends more and bigger items to Ukraine, then slowly but steadily Russia will be pushed back.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Historically speaking invading and holding a country has never been easy. Korea Vietnam Afghanistan and now Ukraine. TBH in the last 100 + years Germany is the only country had and real success with the exception of Iraq I suppose but even then...

The USSR only existed I believe because of WWII

At one time, it was easier - think of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the British, French, Portugese and Spanish colonies too.

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

At one time, it was easier - think of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the British, French, Portugese and Spanish colonies too.

Hence why I said 100 + years and not more hahaha should have perhaps put modern history

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Now is this the real Russian military, or a massive bluff, and they have far better weapons than it appears?

If you've got an hour to spare, watch the video ianch99 posted a couple of days ago. (But to save you an hour: Russia has spent its money on weapons that aren't useful in Ukraine)

[pip08456]

Don't know what percentage this represents but it must be in the 20% region.

Western official: 29 Russian BTGs "rendered non-combat effective, so they've had to be either taken out of the line in order to be refurbished and reconstituted, or they've had to be amalgamated with other battalion tactical groups to generate a single group out of...three."

And as if by magic a post by Phillips P. O'Brian

A really good summary of a western intelligence briefing. One of the things that stands out is a few tweets down where it’s said that 29 Russian BTGs have been rendered combat ‘non-effective’. Russia has only deployed approx 130, so that’s more than 22%. These are heavy losses

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

If you've got an hour to spare, watch the video ianch99 posted a couple of days ago. (But to save you an hour: Russia has spent its money on weapons that aren't useful in Ukraine)

The video made in fact by a Video Gamer, 7 days into the conflict is very informative. One of the comments:

Serving Royal Navy Logistics officer here. This video was quite honestly at a level that you would normally expect from a presentation at the Joint Command Staff College. What a pleasant surprise. Your fundamental understanding of how military capability should emanate from a national strategy underpins the essence of how staggering the decision to even begin this conflict in the first place actually was.

[pip08456]

British Harpoon anti-ship missiles have been delivered to Odesa. TBC.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

The USSR only existed I believe because of WWII

The Soviet Union existed preWW2, it’s just that all the territory they gained in pushing the Nazis back, they kept.

[pip08456]

As expected.

United Nations suspends Russia from human rights body over Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/un-vot...ne-2022-04-07/

Breaking: 60 Russian Para's refuse to fight in Ukraine.

Approximately 60 paratroopers from Russia’s Pskov region have refused to be deployed to Ukraine, newspaper Pskovskaya Gubernia has reported.

Paratroopers from the area were sent to Belarus days after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the outlet wrote Wednesday. They reported that a large number of soldiers were returned to Pskov and fired after refusing to fight — with some also threatened with criminal prosecution for desertion.

Local activist Nikolay Kuzmin said that he had spoken with a driver who helped transport troops back to Pskov, and that he had corroborated the story.

Pskovskaya Gubernia later wrote that military sources expect the number of servicemen refusing to fight in Ukraine to rise significantly. “Our sources tell that commanders now won’t accept any resignation reports,” the paper said. “Many servicemen send them to the military prosecutor’s office instead.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...reports-a77265

[ianch99]

Where have Mick's war updates gone

Apologies, I’ve been on leave this last few weeks. Bit of break from here too. Those horrific civilian casualties, innocent people, including young children being slaughtered by the Russians murderous Putin, so gut wrenching.

I’ll start posting regular updates from today, starting with:

Latest UK Intel: