The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5

[1andrew1]

I guess the Conservatives will now win his seat. Whether the booky pays out is another matter.

Originally Posted by jfman

However who would sacrifice 5 years at 80k+ and expenses for a minor bet.

It doesnt seem likely he would have been elected anyway, hence his bet, so I dont think he sacrificed much on that front.
I do think his statement that he would have given any winnings to charity is a load of cobblers, hes just saying that now hes been "caught".

There does seem to be a lot of fuss over people betting, who would have had no knowledge of the date, simply because they are politicians.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

It doesnt seem likely he would have been elected anyway, hence his bet, so I dont think he sacrificed much on that front.
I do think his statement that he would have given any winnings to charity is a load of cobblers, hes just saying that now hes been "caught".

There does seem to be a lot of fuss over people betting, who would have had no knowledge of the date, simply because they are politicians.

100% agree the charity line is being mince. The sacrifice point was the idea he'd deliberately go out his way to lose, rather than as you say the simpler explanation it was more likely.

I do wonder if the gambling industry are making a point here too, with people the public are unlikely to have sympathy for. There's a lot of rumours in football.

Wife and middle child got their postal vote forms today - today is also day official advice is ‘call us if you haven’t had your postal vote yet’. I was all set to phone the helpline after the postman had been today, had he not brought them. I got mine late last week but then I applied for it within a couple of days of the election being called. They left it until early last week.

The postman handed them over with a pile of electoral leaflets. Labour have been very good at sending out personally addressed bumf - more than once in the case of my older two offspring who are first-time GE voters (eldest had the chance to vote in the last Holyrood being over 16 but chose not to). SNP, Lib Dems and even the Tories have sent material via unaddressed junk mail but none of the parties have been seen canvassing in our estate (and I’d know, I work mostly from home and when I walk to work from time to time I walk through the estate so I see most of what goes on around here).

I am aware the Labour candidate has been out personally; one of my church members had her at the door last week and said it was the first time any candidate had called on her in 30 years. Until 2015 this was solid Labour and from then until now it has been solid Nat but this time polls indicate a Labour win, but not a big one. So I’m surprised at the lack of visible, in-person canvassing activity.

[mrmistoffelees]

Not seem a candidate for our constituency which is surprising as the existing MP (Simon Clarke) had quite a sizeable majority but now seems to be trailing significantly if the current data is to be believed.

He is however very active posting pics of himself in coffee shops so maybes that’s something?

Still waiting for angela and the bus to come along our street !

Interesting article (imho) on why Rishi is making so many mis-steps recently…

tl:dr - he managed to rise without a trace…

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-rise-and-fall-of-rishi/

How is Rishi Sunak so bad at this? Having posed the question some months ago, it’s time to have a crack at answering it. The election campaign has left little dispute about his lack of political nous: from the rainswept announcement, to the D-Day evacuation, to the response to the gambling scandal, he has repeatedly led his party like a man who has simply not encountered democratic politics before.

And at least part of the answer to the mystery of his ineptitude is that he hasn’t really. More than any prime minister of the last 50 years, Sunak has managed to reach the top without having to deal with the messy business of getting people to vote for him. Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson — they had all fought unwinnable seats for their parties and experienced the frustration of the opposition benches.

Sunak, instead, is a zoo baby: selected in 2015 for Richmond, until the last couple of weeks one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. He entered parliament just as his party won its first majority in decades. Young, glamorous, rich, from an ethnic minority, it’s hardly surprising that Cameron saw him as the future of the Tory party.

And this was merely the latest stop in a life that is remarkable for its happy path: Winchester, Oxford, Goldman Sachs, Stanford, marriage to an heiress, a hedge fund. Don’t take my word for it. By his own account the great hardship of his youth was a lack of satellite television.

Sunak’s astonishing run of good fortune continued in parliament. Few of those in the Brexit trenches remember it as an easy period, but Sunak was far from the fighting: a loyal backbencher and junior minister, dutifully voting for whatever his party’s policy was that week. His decision to back leaving the EU but not make a fuss about it was hardly a bold one. It was simply the smart thing for an ambitious backbencher to do.

In fact it reflected the dominant theme of Sunak’s political career: from getting selected for Richmond to becoming prime minister, what has mattered has always been the internal politics of the Tory party. This month is the first time that he has been forced to appeal to anyone who wasn’t a party member.

If tepidly backing Brexit in the referendum was his first characteristic decision, his second was to enthusiastically back Johnson for the party leadership in 2019. His article in The Times with Oliver Dowden and Robert Jenrick announcing that “Only Boris” could save the Conservatives was the moment the rest of us knew that the careerists had seen the future. Did they believe Johnson had the character to be prime minister? It hardly matters. They believed Johnson would win, and that supporting him could help them rise. He did, and it did. Sunak entered the Cabinet as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Eight months later, he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, appointed because Dominic Cummings viewed him as more pliable than his predecessor Sajid Javid.

It’s tempting to ascribe such a meteoric rise to terrific talent. But aside from standing in at a 2019 debate when Johnson was hiding in a fridge somewhere, Sunak reached the second most powerful seat in the Cabinet without making a single notable contribution to British political life.

[mrmistoffelees]

The Peter principle in full majesty

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-m...ver-vote-share

- Labour lead voting intentions by 42% (-1 from early June) to Conservatives’ 19% (-4)
- Reform UK up 6 points to 15% (highest share with Ipsos), LibDems up 3 to 11%.
- Rishi Sunak most unpopular Prime Minister with Ipsos ever at this stage of campaign.
- Just over a third say they may change their mind before polling day.
- 72% say they dislike the Conservatives (a record high), their worst score, and 78% think it is time for a change

- More than one in three say they may change their mind before the election (36%. At this stage in December 2019 it was 27%. 44% of current Conservative voters and 45% of Liberal Democrats say they may change their mind compared to one in three Labour voters (33%) and 29% of Reform UK supporters.
- Among those who may change their mind, 21% are considering Labour, 19% the Lib Dems and 14% the Greens, 7% are considering the Conservatives and 7% Reform UK.
- 64% of voters say they are voting for the party that best represents their views. 19% are voting tactically – they agree “The party you support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you vote for the [party] to try and keep another party out”. This is higher than we have seen in previous elections, it stood at 14% in 2019. This may be benefiting the Lib Dems as 36% of those voting Lib Dem say this is why they are voting for the party, as do 25% of those voting Labour, but only 13% of those voting Conservative and 10% for Reform UK.

[denphone]

Only impossible miracles can save the Conservatives now from a massive trouncing at the ballot box.

[jfman]

I’d love to meet the 22% who don’t think “it’s time for change”.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by denphone

Only impossible miracles can save the Conservatives now from a massive trouncing at the ballot box.

It will be interesting to see who Welsh Labour blame for the mess the NHS, trains, roads and education are in, here in Wales once they are out. Any comments made get the same answer is the tories in England fault

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’d love to meet the 22% who don’t think “it’s time for change”.

I wouldn't, sadists, masochists or in on it, I'll give 'em a miss. Same as the delusionals chanting as if praying careful what you wish for like the last 14 years aren't enough for them and it could in any way be worse than that

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Itshim

It will be interesting to see who Welsh Labour blame for the mess the NHS, trains, roads and education are in, here in Wales once they are out. Any comments made get the same answer is the tories in England fault

Opinion polling suggest Welsh Labour will still be the dominant party in Wales after the election.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies....-20-june-2024/

Labour leads Reform by 29% in Wales.

New lowest Conservative %.

Welsh Westminster Voting Intention (19-20 June):

Labour 46% (+1)
Reform 17% (-1)
Conservative 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)
Lib Dem 7% (+2)
Green 4% (–)
Other 1% (+1)

Changes +/- 5-7 June

[ianch99]

I think we will be surprised how many votes, not seats, Reform get. Given that Farage has only one core message (hate), this is very depressing for the future of this country.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I think we will be surprised how many votes, not seats, Reform get. Given that Farage has only one core message (hate), this is very depressing for the future of this country.

What’s depressing is people in the centre. Watch the country go to shit for 14 years. Want Labour to continue the journey to more shit in a competent manner. Like Tories without the entertainment.