05-11-2021, 07:43
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#7981
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Posts: 14,618
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
“The base line” sounds quite woolly, OB.
Not like you to have an unclear definition to pin your hopes against. Is that a baseline of 200 deaths a day? Hospitals cancelling routine appointments? The working from home brigade not saving Pret?
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The base line of new infections was what I was referring to, the base line being 0. As you must know, I was referring to the graphs I posted earlier.
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05-11-2021, 08:33
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#7982
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,476
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
The base line of new infections was what I was referring to, the base line being 0. As you must know, I was referring to the graphs I posted earlier.
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Zero new infections?
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05-11-2021, 09:30
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#7983
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,072
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
There’s a "brave"* prediction…
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I don't think anyone on this thread that has made predictions has faired well, myself definitely included.
I don't think anyone in the whole wider national debate, that has made a prediction, has faired well either....including politicians, CMO's, both flavours of Sage and the media.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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05-11-2021, 10:23
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#7984
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Zero new infections?
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I said ‘close to the base line’. It’s the base line that indicates 0 infections.
Do you deliberately misread my posts or are you speed reading?
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05-11-2021, 10:59
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#7985
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,476
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I don't think anyone on this thread that has made predictions has faired well, myself definitely included.
I don't think anyone in the whole wider national debate, that has made a prediction, has faired well either....including politicians, CMO's, both flavours of Sage and the media.
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There’s a massive difference however between wishful thinking (it’ll go away by itself), ideologically driven analysis against state intervention (the Spectator having us reaching herd immunity every month or so) at all costs, and some who are making best effort analysis without ulterior motives.
All predictions are based on underlying assumptions that are rarely communicated by the media. Nobody goes back to ascertain what went well (or what didn’t) in any given model - it just gets dismissed within the binary of being right or wrong.
One model being held up recently as a positive outcome of where we are headed has the important caveat of people voluntarily restricting their own behaviour and contacts for a further year. Again this isn’t binary “hiding under the stairs” or acting like it’s 2019 - if the vast majority of people plant themselves somewhere on the spectrum between the two that has wider economic implications for where and how much consumers spend.
One model of doom uses 2019 behaviour. Something that simply isn’t credible against a backdrop of tens of thousands of infections per day.
---------- Post added at 10:59 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I said ‘close to the base line’. It’s the base line that indicates 0 infections.
Do you deliberately misread my posts or are you speed reading?
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So it’s entirely subjective. It could be 1,000 cases, it could be 30,000 cases. As long it’s relatively flat.
Last edited by jfman; 05-11-2021 at 10:58.
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05-11-2021, 11:33
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#7986
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,288
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Re: Coronavirus
Some good news
Quote:
Pfizer's new COVID pill cuts hospitalisation or death by 89%, trial results indicate
The results appear to surpass those seen with Merck & Co Inc's pill Molnupiravir, which was shown last month to halve the likelihood of dying or needing hospital treatment for COVID-19.
Full trial data is not yet available from either company.
Pfizer plans to submit the interim trial results to the US Food and Drug Administration as part of an emergency use application.
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...cid=entnewsntp
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05-11-2021, 11:38
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#7987
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 37,033
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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Brilliant, although you would be disappointed if an antiviral designed to fight covid didn’t perform better than one designed to fight a different respiratory illness that isn’t even caused by the same class of virus. It’s remarkable that Molnupiravir works at all really, but just as well because this one is still going to be a good few months away from widespread availability.
Biomedical science is where it’s all happening right now though isn’t it. So many remarkable achievements in such a short time.
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05-11-2021, 11:42
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#7988
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,221
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Oh, I’ve read the posts, jfman. That’s where the hyperbole lurks.
I look forward to your words of wisdom when the number of infections decline near to the base line by December/January.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
The base line of new infections was what I was referring to, the base line being 0. As you must know, I was referring to the graphs I posted earlier.
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Just to confirm (as I don’t want to misinterpret/misunderstand what you’re saying) - are you predicting that by December, or January at the latest, the number of new COVID infections daily will be just above zero?
(And to avoid further confusion/misinterpretation, what is "just above zero" - 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 per day?)
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
Last edited by Hugh; 05-11-2021 at 12:17.
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05-11-2021, 12:13
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#7989
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,288
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Brilliant, although you would be disappointed if an antiviral designed to fight covid didn’t perform better than one designed to fight a different respiratory illness that isn’t even caused by the same class of virus. It’s remarkable that Molnupiravir works at all really, but just as well because this one is still going to be a good few months away from widespread availability.
Biomedical science is where it’s all happening right now though isn’t it. So many remarkable achievements in such a short time.
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Wonderful seeing all these great treatments and vaccines developed or in the pipeline.
---------- Post added at 12:13 ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I said ‘close to the base line’. It’s the base line that indicates 0 infections.
Do you deliberately misread my posts or are you speed reading?
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I suspect you might find it easier going on this forum if you were a bit more specific with your predictions.
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05-11-2021, 13:40
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#7990
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Posts: 14,618
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
So it’s entirely subjective. It could be 1,000 cases, it could be 30,000 cases. As long it’s relatively flat.
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Look at the graphs, why don’t you?
---------- Post added at 13:39 ---------- Previous post was at 13:35 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
Just to confirm (as I don’t want to misinterpret/misunderstand what you’re saying) - are you predicting that by December, or January at the latest, the number of new COVID infections daily will be just above zero?
(And to avoid further confusion/misinterpretation, what is "just above zero" - 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 per day?)
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It’s not my prediction. It’s the scientists’ own modelling. I have already provided the graphs.
---------- Post added at 13:40 ---------- Previous post was at 13:39 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
I suspect you might find it easier going on this forum if you were a bit more specific with your predictions.
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Another one - it’s not my prediction!
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05-11-2021, 13:43
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#7991
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,476
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Look at the graphs, why don’t you?
Another one - it’s not my prediction!
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Quote:
I look forward to your words of wisdom when the number of infections decline near to the base line by December/January.
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So are you aligning with the prediction or aren’t you?
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05-11-2021, 13:54
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#7992
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
So are you aligning with the prediction or aren’t you?
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For God’s sake, jfman! This has nothing to do with whether I am ‘aligning with the prediction’. It was you who accused those of us who were saying no more restrictions were necessary of ‘hoping for the best’. Once again, you are twisting this into a completely different argument.
It is not a case of hoping for the best at all. The justification for taking no further action is that the modelling suggests a sharp decline in the infection rate during November/December, and the current number of infections is also well within that modelling. So yes, the modelling is a good basis to work on.
So, I say again, where is your justification for imposing more measures now, unless of course you are ‘hoping for the worst’?
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05-11-2021, 13:58
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#7993
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,476
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
For God’s sake, jfman! It was you who accused those of us who were saying no more restrictions were necessary of ‘hoping for the best’. Once again, you are twisting this into a completely different argument.
It is not a case of hoping for the best at all. The justification for taking no further action is that the modelling suggests a sharp decline in the infection rate during November/December, and the current number of infections is also well within that modelling.
So, I say again, where is your justification for imposing more measures now, unless of course you are ‘hoping for the worst’?
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Old Boy you are going around in circles all by yourself. You responded to me with a meaningless post that didn’t actually address the point I was making, now you seem to be attempting to make a half baked prediction that you don’t wish to be pinned down to in the long run.
If you have nothing further to add - like what that figure will be, what level of hospitalisations it gives, deaths etc. or offer your own opinion on what level would warrant concern then I can only presume you’re at your own baseline of ideologically supporting no restrictions regardless of outcomes. Which is fine - just don’t try to tart it up as anything insightful or giving due consideration to reality.
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05-11-2021, 14:03
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#7994
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Posts: 14,618
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Old Boy you are going around in circles all by yourself. You responded to me with a meaningless post that didn’t actually address the point I was making, now you seem to be attempting to make a half baked prediction that you don’t wish to be pinned down to in the long run.
If you have nothing further to add - like what that figure will be, what level of hospitalisations it gives, deaths etc. or offer your own opinion on what level would warrant concern then I can only presume you’re at your own baseline of ideologically supporting no restrictions regardless of outcomes. Which is fine - just don’t try to tart it up as anything insightful or giving due consideration to reality.
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Unfortunately, once again you are not listening. This is the scientists’ own model, and of course it is sensible to be guided by that.
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05-11-2021, 14:05
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#7995
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,476
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Unfortunately, once again you are not listening. This is the scientists’ own model, and of course it is sensible to be guided by that.
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If you can’t commit to backing your own position Old Boy I don’t know how you expect to persuade anyone else of your wishful thinking.
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