14-09-2021, 16:42
|
#7246
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,221
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
Goole on the 24th meet me there if you like
|
I thought they shut when they heard you were visiting…
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
14-09-2021, 16:53
|
#7247
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,675
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
You have to incubate the virus and give it space to infect your cells and multiply. Only once it has had time to do this will there be measurable quantities of viral particles in your body fluids that can then infect other people. As this coronavirus is novel to our species we have no latent immunity and the virus rapidly infects and becomes transmissible from an unvaccinated individual.
If you are vaccinated, while the virus is trying to take hold in your body your immune system is attacking it vigorously. Exactly how vigorous this fight-back is, determines whether or not you become infectious. Six out of ten vaccinated people (IIRC) will have a sufficiently robust immune response that the virus never gets a foothold and they therefore never become infectious. The other four will have an immune response but it is weaker; while the virus is under attack, for a while at least it is still able to multiply to the point where the host can pass it on. Those whose immune response is weakest will likely also display significant symptoms, in a few cases requiring hospital treatment and in the rarest cases still dying.
|
Yep, lower levels of virus in vaccinated patients is the answer (lower viral load is the techy term) Here's a paper showing this with the Pfizer vaccine.
This is less pronounced with the Delta variant, especially some time after vaccination ( preprint link)
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 02:18
|
#7248
|
Dr Pepper Addict
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Nottingham
Age: 61
Services: Flextel SIP : Sky Mobile : Sky Q TV : VM BB (1000 Mbps) : Aquiss FTTP (900 Mbps)
Posts: 27,868
|
Re: Coronavirus
On what evidence exactly is the need for boosters being based ?
I was more than happy to take the initial jabs 1 & 2, Im far less convinced about the need for a 3rd.
__________________
Baby, I was born this way.
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 07:41
|
#7249
|
Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 37,033
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
On what evidence exactly is the need for boosters being based ?
I was more than happy to take the initial jabs 1 & 2, Im far less convinced about the need for a 3rd.
|
There is evidence of waning immunity with time, which is as you would expect. This leads to an increased risk of serious illness in those whose immune response is weaker. The booster dose will address that, provided it’s given not less than 6 months after the second dose.
At some point in the (hopefully not too distant) future we should arrive at a situation where covid is simply endemic in the population and fairly regular encounters with it in the wild will keep our immune systems primed. Boosters should no longer be necessary for the vast majority of the population from that point. But we’re not there yet.
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 07:57
|
#7250
|
Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,618
|
Re: Coronavirus
We were also told that the scientists would tweak the boosters to deal more effectively with the Delta variant, but it seems to have gone quiet on that, so I doubt that it is ready yet.
__________________
Forumbox.co.uk
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 08:10
|
#7251
|
Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 37,033
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
We were also told that the scientists would tweak the boosters to deal more effectively with the Delta variant, but it seems to have gone quiet on that, so I doubt that it is ready yet.
|
Formulations to target Delta directly are in the pipeline. There was some talk about producing alpha-targeted vaccine earlier in the year but that all seems to have gone quiet, presumably because attention switched to the more problematic delta. However Pfizer is saying its original formula produces a good antibody response against delta when given as a booster, so there’s no critical hurry.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...-effectiveness
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 11:07
|
#7252
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
|
Re: Coronavirus
We could vaccinate everyone in the UK and give boosters every 3 months, but there would still be people in hospitals that die 'within 28 days of a positive test'.
Still lots of money to be made though, carry on
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 11:34
|
#7253
|
vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 13,739
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
We could vaccinate everyone in the UK and give boosters every 3 months, but there would still be people in hospitals that die 'within 28 days of a positive test'.
Still lots of money to be made though, carry on
|
Steady on or you'll trigger the experts to post something from google.
__________________
To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
|
|
|
15-09-2021, 12:07
|
#7254
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,221
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
Steady on or you'll trigger the experts to post something from google.
|
Heaven forbid people should back up their propositions with researched information, rather than just ask their bruncles...
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
16-09-2021, 13:18
|
#7255
|
Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Barry South Wales
Age: 68
Services: With VM for BB 250Mb service.(Deal)
Posts: 11,675
|
Re: Coronavirus
Sage's modelling cock-up.
Quote:
SAGE has had to release an embarrassing mea culpa after getting their summer Covid modelling badly wrong. A new document released by the advice body admits the modelling “did not foresee such rapid transient change in dynamics”, citing possible reasons such as:
The closure of schools for the summer
“A period of warm weather”
Changes in behaviour following the Euros
The pingdemic forcing so many isolations
How the nation’s brainiest boffins did not foresee warm weather during the summer, nor the closure of schools, is pretty astonishing.
|
https://order-order.com/2021/09/15/s...r-over-summer/
|
|
|
16-09-2021, 13:33
|
#7256
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,221
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
Sage's modelling cock-up.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/15/s...r-over-summer/
Quote:
SAGE has had to release an embarrassing mea culpa after getting their summer Covid modelling badly wrong. A new document released by the advice body admits the modelling “did not foresee such rapid transient change in dynamics”, citing possible reasons such as:
The closure of schools for the summer
“A period of warm weather”
Changes in behaviour following the Euros
The pingdemic forcing so many isolations
How the nation’s brainiest boffins did not foresee warm weather during the summer, nor the closure of schools, is pretty astonishing.
|
|
Guido doing some highly selective quoting there…
https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Statement.pdf
The original says
Quote:
The modelling did not foresee such rapid transient change in dynamics, with possible reasons including the closure of schools for the summer, changes in behaviour during and following the Euro 2020 football matches, a period of warm weather, and a large proportion of the population isolating as a result of being identified as a contact of a case, as discussed in a previous consensus statement2. Outturn data for hospital admissions over the month of August did, nevertheless, fall within expectations for some scenarios, although hospital occupancy and deaths have been lower than expected under central vaccination assumptions. It is, however, still possible to use these scenarios to understand plausible future trajectories over the next few months into winter.
|
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
16-09-2021, 13:58
|
#7257
|
vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 13,739
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
|
It's what we have come to expect.
__________________
To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
|
|
|
16-09-2021, 14:48
|
#7258
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,675
|
Re: Coronavirus
It's nice for the modelling to be wrong but the actual results being better than modeled than worse! It does show how hard it is to model populations
|
|
|
16-09-2021, 18:33
|
#7259
|
Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 37,033
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
It's nice for the modelling to be wrong but the actual results being better than modeled than worse! It does show how hard it is to model populations
|
Given the obvious shortcomings of this particular model I’m not sure this is a good example of complexity ….
|
|
|
17-09-2021, 09:02
|
#7260
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,675
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Given the obvious shortcomings of this particular model I’m not sure this is a good example of complexity ….
|
True, the behaviours shown over the June/July period weren't expected with older people staying at home more than was thought but hey, that's science, the modelling will be improved and refined to reflect these learnings.
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 10 (0 members and 10 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 09:11.
|