The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

So Nige has decided he’s the leader of Reform UK and he’s standing in Clacton. Makes things a bit more interesting I guess. He has to have a better chance this time than at any other. I wonder whether the Donald’s woes in America have helped persuade him to stay here.

It did seem a reaction to the lady who asked him about why he wasn't standing on Question Time and the goading he got from Piers Morgan. (from 14:47 here).

But it might be more strategic - if he wins he will be on the Opposition benches and is perhaps dreaming of orchestrating a merger with the Conservative Party and becoming its next leader.

---------- Post added at 18:51 ---------- Previous post was at 18:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

He does love himself a lot, how many political parties has he been in? Cons, UKIP, Brexit Reform i might have missed one.....
Why not change the name of the Party to 'Nigel' too. Hopefully the more decent people of Clacton will tactically vote against him. Always worked before.

According to this site, Labour is tipped to win Clacton. It will be interesting to see if there's sufficient protest votes out there to elect Farage.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...y?seat=Clacton

[Itshim]

What on earth makes anyone think the EU would let us back. If the UK did it would HAVE to adopt the euro .don't see that being that popular. Really think that such a move is a pipedream for at least my life time.

---------- Post added at 18:56 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

He does love himself a lot, how many political parties has he been in? Cons, UKIP, Brexit Reform i might have missed one.....
Why not change the name of the Party to 'Nigel' too. Hopefully the more decent people of Clacton will tactically vote against him. Always worked before.

Aren't UKIP brexit and reform the same parties with different names

Originally Posted by Itshim

What on earth makes anyone think the EU would let us back. If the UK did it would HAVE to adopt the euro .don't see that being that popular. Really think that such a move is a pipedream for at least my life time.

---------- Post added at 18:56 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ----------



Aren't UKIP brexit and reform the same parties with different names

Nope…

https://www.ukip.org/

https://www.reformparty.uk/

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Itshim

What on earth makes anyone think the EU would let us back. If the UK did it would HAVE to adopt the euro .don't see that being that popular. Really think that such a move is a pipedream for at least my lifetime.

It's a pipedream for at least 15 years. But we could probably find a way not to adopt the Euro.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Nope…

https://www.ukip.org/

https://www.reformparty.uk/

Same horse different jockey.

Originally Posted by Itshim

Same horse different jockey.

Different horses, same jockey…

Farage left UKIP late 2018.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's a pipedream for at least 15 years. But we could probably find a way not to adopt the Euro.

You might be surprised to learn that *if* we were ever to rejoin, I’d argue that we must adopt the Euro. A bit like the Scottish devolution referendum of 1997, which recognised the possibility of a Scottish parliament with or without ‘tax varying powers’ (it was a two-part question), most voters who believed there should be a Scottish parliament also believed that if there was one, it was logical for it to have some level of financial authority for it to be credible. Likewise, we would have to decide whether we were going to try to go back to something like the membership we had before, or if we were going to see if we could have more success with a different sort of engagement with the institution, namely full commitment to the acquis, the currency and the principle of ‘ever closer union’.

As you say however, it isn’t going to become an issue at any point in this election campaign or the next, if Labour gets anything like the majority it is presently heading for. The campaign for a third term might however be a bit more lively and I wouldn’t be surprised if EU membership was a campaign issue by then.

I think it would happen with slower reintegration with parts of the single market until we're in a customs union-type scenario.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

You might be surprised to learn that *if* we were ever to rejoin, I’d argue that we must adopt the Euro. A bit like the Scottish devolution referendum of 1997, which recognised the possibility of a Scottish parliament with or without ‘tax varying powers’ (it was a two-part question), most voters who believed there should be a Scottish parliament also believed that if there was one, it was logical for it to have some level of financial authority for it to be credible. Likewise, we would have to decide whether we were going to try to go back to something like the membership we had before, or if we were going to see if we could have more success with a different sort of engagement with the institution, namely full commitment to the acquis, the currency and the principle of ‘ever closer union’.

As you say however, it isn’t going to become an issue at any point in this election campaign or the next, if Labour gets anything like the majority it is presently heading for. The campaign for a third term might however be a bit more lively and I wouldn’t be surprised if EU membership was a campaign issue by then.

So what you're saying is that Brexit was a mistake, that has caused this country immense everlasting damage, and that those that voted for it must take some responsibility?

However it can't be admitted to being a mistake, by any of the main parties, for fear of pointing out to the electorate what idiots they've been ? (never a vote winner)

Just reading between the lines a little

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

You might be surprised to learn that *if* we were ever to rejoin, I’d argue that we must adopt the Euro. A bit like the Scottish devolution referendum of 1997, which recognised the possibility of a Scottish parliament with or without ‘tax varying powers’ (it was a two-part question), most voters who believed there should be a Scottish parliament also believed that if there was one, it was logical for it to have some level of financial authority for it to be credible. Likewise, we would have to decide whether we were going to try to go back to something like the membership we had before, or if we were going to see if we could have more success with a different sort of engagement with the institution, namely full commitment to the acquis, the currency and the principle of ‘ever closer union’.

As you say however, it isn’t going to become an issue at any point in this election campaign or the next, if Labour gets anything like the majority it is presently heading for. The campaign for a third term might however be a bit more lively and I wouldn’t be surprised if EU membership was a campaign issue by then.

I'm not surprised.

I would predict that any remaining () Brexiteers in 15 years' time would be keen to make rejoining the EU seem as far from where we are at the moment as possible by arguing for everything except the kitchen sink to be thrown in! So think an EU army, Shengen and adopting the Euro to be presented as inevitable consequences of rejoining.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm not surprised.

I would predict that any remaining () Brexiteers in 15 years' time would be keen to make rejoining the EU seem as far from where we are at the moment as possible by arguing for everything except the kitchen sink to be thrown in! So think an EU army, Shengen and adopting the Euro to be presented as inevitable consequences of rejoining.

Actually, I’m not offering it as a strategy to ensure we stay out. There’s no need, because we are staying out for the foreseeable future. With that being the case there’s space to speculate freely. I think we have to be either fully in or fully out. I’d have thought you would acknowledge that the UK’s semi-detached status within the EU helped create the space in which Euroscepticism could dwell and grow for many years prior to the Brexit referendum being called and, especially with regards the currency, made it even possible for us to leave.

Originally Posted by Russ

Each time I played I was crap and we went out at the first round at each tournament.

I wonder if Farage could learn something from this.

Not to play darts ?

---------- Post added at 01:44 ---------- Previous post was at 01:28 ----------

Originally Posted by Itshim

If the UK did it would HAVE to adopt the euro .don't see that being that popular.

Actually, I dont think as many as you think will care too much.

I imagine many people already spend Euro's every year with trips and/or holidays.
I have them in my wallet right now, from my last holiday, ready to spend later this year.

The euro works pretty much the same - 100 cents/pence makes 1 Euro/Pound, so not hard to understand.

Of course, we'd all need new keyboards, with a Euro symbol on Shift+3

My fear would be how much people would use it as a 'rip off' excuse to hide price rises by converting at inflated rates. Something that happened (I believe) the last time we changed currency in 1971. I have no desire to be back in the EU, but conversion to Euros would not be a stopper (and never was).


I also found out today that one British Territory actually uses the Euro as its currency (Akrotiri and Dhekelia).

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by Paul

Not to play darts ?

---------- Post added at 01:44 ---------- Previous post was at 01:28 ----------


Actually, I dont think as many as you think will care too much.

I imagine many people already spend Euro's every year with trips and/or holidays.
I have them in my wallet right now, from my last holiday, ready to spend later this year.

The euro works pretty much the same - 100 cents/pence makes 1 Euro/Pound, so not hard to understand.

Of course, we'd all need new keyboards, with a Euro symbol on Shift+3

My fear would be how much people would use it as a 'rip off' excuse to hide price rises by converting at inflated rates. Something that happened (I believe) the last time we changed currency in 1971. I have no desire to be back in the EU, but conversion to Euros would not be a stopper (and never was).


I also found out today that one British Territory actually uses the Euro as its currency (Akrotiri and Dhekelia).

Back then everything was rounded up to the nearest half new penny or penny, very annoying when I was trying to buy my weekly supply of mojos.
I agree there would probably be a straight swap price wise for "simplicity", pounds prices would become euros prices but at least you'd save on currency conversion charges when going abroad.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by daveeb

Back then everything was rounded up to the nearest half new penny or penny, very annoying when I was trying to buy my weekly supply of mojos.
I agree there would probably be a straight swap price wise for "simplicity", pounds prices would become euros prices but at least you'd save on currency conversion charges when going abroad.

Yes always round up not down, I'd imagine there were corner shop half penny millionaires of the back of that and this time round the only difference would be instead of mojos it'd be mojitos

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Actually, I’m not offering it as a strategy to ensure we stay out. There’s no need, because we are staying out for the foreseeable future. With that being the case there’s space to speculate freely. I think we have to be either fully in or fully out. I’d have thought you would acknowledge that the UK’s semi-detached status within the EU helped create the space in which Euroscepticism could dwell and grow for many years prior to the Brexit referendum being called and, especially with regards the currency, made it even possible for us to leave.

I don't see things as such a black and white choice. Eurosceptisism in 2016 was more driven on the back of large scale immigration and communities suffering from post-recession austerity.

The Euro's proven to be a robust currency that has weathered economic storms successfully and is not the weak currency that Eurosceptics used to pretend it was but I can see the benefits of having our own currency. Would it make it harder to leave if we had the Euro? Probably but I see rejoining as inevitable as Brexit is proving damaging to the UK in many ways, but as I said, certainly not within the next 15 years.

---------- Post added at 12:54 ---------- Previous post was at 12:48 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Yes always round up not down, I'd imagine there were corner shop half penny millionaires of the back of that and this time round the only difference would be instead of mojos it'd be mojitos

Certainly a bit of price inflation when Croatia joined the Euro. But I don't think it's a one to one at the moment - the Pound is worth about 15% more than the Euro so a Euro's only worth about 87p. So Poundland would have to become Euro-15 cents-land. Although a lot of their stuff is no longer £1 anyway!