Coronavirus (OLD)

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Even though you are CableForums most eminent chief virologist, the correct answer I think would be, we don’t know.

Unless you’ve done the research, of course.

No need, once again, for your childish insults. When was the last time we had a global pandemic on this scale?

It’s far from a regular occurrence. Therefore it can, to a person of reasonably average intelligence, be described as extremely unlikely for further deadly strains to develop in five of the next ten years.

Absolutely, I think a national store of PPE is required, depends on the shelf life as to how much we can stockpile.

If we can maintain nuclear weapons never used I’m sure PPE is achievable.

Yes a “mechanism” - don’t know what it is, but we should have it.

Proven not to be effective during this pandemic.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...0.25.5.2000080


I’m going to downgrade you to “junior virologist” for this error.


isolate them based on airport screening that is too inaccurate?

it certainly isn’t, it’s infectious disease management, when you don’t know the disease and you don’t know how infectious it is, you don’t know the mortality rate, you don’t know how if affects each individual............in short you know sweet FA about anything and you have to make decisions everyday based on the data of the previous day.

Yet other countries are doing these things and finding success. One internet story does not evidence make.

Airport screening may not get everyone, but as I’m sure you’ve observed more people out there with the virus = greater spread.

As you’ve selectively quoted my post to make fairly inaccurate analysis I’m going to upgrade you to “junior pedant”.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

One internet story does not evidence make.

Your obviously didn’t even bother to look at the link. If you did you will have seen that it was not an “internet story” but a scientific paper written by the “ Members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) nCoV working group and published by the “European Centre for disease prevention and control

I know you’re Cable Forums Junior Virologist but these guys definitely out rank you.

Stop bickering and name-calling, both of you - time outs will be issued if this behaviour continues

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Your obviously didn’t even bother to look at the link. If you did you will have seen that it was not an “internet story” but a scientific paper written by the “ Members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) nCoV working group and published by the “European Centre for disease prevention and control

I know you’re Cable Forums Junior Virologist but these guys definitely out rank you.

You will find that many different things, in isolation, aren’t considered effective. That doesn’t mean that combined with other measures they aren’t somewhat effective.

I know it’s quite big picture and that can be a struggle for some that get stuck in pedantry but closing schools “isn’t effective”, ending mass gatherings “isn’t effective”.

The obvious point being if we had a 100% effective method of preventing spread we’ve had done it now.

Lockdown measures are the aggregate of “ineffective measures” aiming to get to 100% effective. The article points to 44 out of 100 infected passengers being identified. Presumably, even an armchair analyst such as yourself would rather identify them than let them out into central London for the somewhat limited time and effort it would cost compared to say, the Chancellors support package and a 35% drop in GDP?

[denphone]

No surprise with Professor Neil Ferguson who on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that when the UK lockdown does eventually end, social distancing measures are likely to remain in place “indefinitely” until a coronavirus vaccine can be rolled out.

He also warned that it would not be possible to relax the lockdown until a significant infrastructure was in place.

h/t @gdinwiddie

Coming soon.

[jfman]

Haha very true, Hugh.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

h/t @gdinwiddie

Coming soon.

Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

Did they identify who this was?

I know that two people in York were identified as the first cases in the UK in late January, but I thought there more a week or so later down South?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Did they identify who this was?

That would be some lynching party if that was revealed

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

Originally Posted by papa smurf

That would be some lynching party if that was revealed

And if they didn't know they were carriers?

[Sephiroth]

Have you noticed how irrelevant the EU has been to Cornavirus? The EU fans may say something about ventilator procurement, but we seem to be doing alright in that department.

Btw, Hugh's diagram is an important message.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

And if they didn't know they were carriers?

Ignorance is no defense

[tweetiepooh]

The EU and anything like that should be irrelevant. The virus doesn't respect borders so neither should treatment. It's to the advantage of both the EU members and non-members to stop spread. If you've contained things in your country you now help contain it elsewhere so it doesn't come back to your country.

It's why we should help other nations now, especially those that can't afford "stuff" and often have large populations in very high density quarters. (Generations living in one single room - try self isolating there) People who earn daily what they need daily.