The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 1

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Guido is soiling himself with excitement at a JL Partners (who?) poll that shows Labour’s lead tightening to 12 points, as the Tories seemingly claw back age 65+ voters from Reform.

https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/p...nly-12-points/

Given the whopping size of Labour’s lead in many other polls conducted by companies that repeat their polling much more often, I think this is likely to be what they call an outlier …

I'm afraid Guido's the patron saint of lost causes these days.

Originally Posted by Chris

Guido is soiling himself with excitement at a JL Partners (who?) poll that shows Labour’s lead tightening to 12 points, as the Tories seemingly claw back age 65+ voters from Reform.

https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/p...nly-12-points/

Given the whopping size of Labour’s lead in many other polls conducted by companies that repeat their polling much more often, I think this is likely to be what they call an outlier …

Who? indeed…

From the landing page of their website…

https://jlpartners.co.uk/

IN OUR CLIENTS’ WORDS

Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the Rt Hon Theresa May: “[Their] work in the field of opinion research has been absolutely vital and has helped to shape everything we have done in Number 10… [the] insights have not only supported our work in Government but have also helped to provide a clear direction for the Conservative Party as it seeks to win a majority in the next general election – so will be of lasting value.”

Lord Barwell, former Chief of Staff to the British Prime Minister: “I can think of few people in British politics who better understand the realignment that is taking place, and what the Conservative Party needs to do to hold onto its existing support”

Sir Mick Davis, former chief executive of the British Conservative Party: “J.L. Partners is diligent, professional with a rare intellect and abundance of integrity... skills needed when spelling out difficult truths to powerful people”

From their "Senior Team" page

JAMES JOHNSON, CO-FOUNDER

James Johnson is a political adviser and pollster, having previously served as the Senior Opinion Research and Strategy Adviser to Prime Minister Theresa May. In that capacity he conducted opinion research and private polling, and presented recommendations to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, as well as the rest of Whitehall and the Conservative Party.

TOM LUBBOCK, CO-FOUNDER

Dr Tom Lubbock is a public opinion specialist having previously worked as an academic behavioural scientist at the University of Oxford, specialising in research methods and referendum campaigns. Between 2017-2019 he ran analytics and polling at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), working on tracking polling for the Prime Minister and end to end segmentations.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Who? indeed…

From the landing page of their website…

https://jlpartners.co.uk/
.
From their "Senior Team" page

Are you saying they may not be unbiased?

Why are the major news outlets not reporting CFs poll? It's probably more accurate

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Why should someone earning over 100k per year have the same personal tax allowance as someone earning less than that ?

Why shouldnt they ?

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Paul

Why shouldnt they ?

That doesn’t answer my question.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

That doesn’t answer my question.

That doesn’t answer my question either.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Chris

Guido is soiling himself with excitement at a JL Partners (who?) poll that shows Labour’s lead tightening to 12 points, as the Tories seemingly claw back age 65+ voters from Reform.

https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/p...nly-12-points/

Given the whopping size of Labour’s lead in many other polls conducted by companies that repeat their polling much more often, I think this is likely to be what they call an outlier …

Definitely a outlier according to the latest polling done by Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-ex...-news-13144620

The Labour Party has extended its lead over the Conservatives, according to the first exclusive YouGov poll of the campaign for Sky News.

One week into the race for Number 10, Labour is 27 points ahead of the Tories - erasing a small drop in the lead recorded at the end of last week.

The Great Britain poll - conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week - puts Labour on 47%, the Tories on 20%, Reform on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and Greens on 7%.

Originally Posted by Hugh

Who? indeed…

From the landing page of their website…

https://jlpartners.co.uk/



From their "Senior Team" page

I’m shocked - shocked - at your insinuation that they may be conducting politically coloured polling. Surely they wouldn’t deliberately construct a poll designed to push respondents to answer in a certain way, would they?

Would they?





WOULD

THEY

?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

I’m shocked - shocked - at your insinuation that they may be conducting politically coloured polling. Surely they wouldn’t deliberately construct a poll designed to push respondents to answer in a certain way, would they?

Would they?

WOULD

THEY

?

Who would benefits from such a poll? Constituency workers aren't naive and all the MPs who've announced they won't be standing have pretty much done so haven't they? Is it an attempt to squeeze some money out of donors to cover the leaner years in opposition?

Originally Posted by Chris

Guido is soiling himself with excitement at a JL Partners (who?) poll that shows Labour’s lead tightening to 12 points, as the Tories seemingly claw back age 65+ voters from Reform.

https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/p...nly-12-points/

Given the whopping size of Labour’s lead in many other polls conducted by companies that repeat their polling much more often, I think this is likely to be what they call an outlier …

JL Partners have been around for a while. They were founded by a pollster who worked for Theresa May. The guy himself has a tendency, in my opinion anyway, to put the best possible light on Tory strategy. He sees everything as a clever strategic play that the media/Twitter doesn't get, not always unfairly.

But the poll is legit.

They get different results because of how they deal with Don't Knows. They and Opinium weight by 2019 vote, in other words they take the DKs and see what they did last election.

Other pollsters force them to choose. 'If you HAD to vote today, who would you vote for...'

And others remove them entirely.

What poll you believe depends on what weighting you think makes most sense. We won't know whose right until election day.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Who would benefits from such a poll? Constituency workers aren't naive and all the MPs who've announced they won't be standing have pretty much done so haven't they? Is it an attempt to squeeze some money out of donors to cover the leaner years in opposition?

It allows them to write a press release which they can send to friendly newspapers in the hope of getting a big headline that gives the impression of momentum. The Tories will do much better than they are presently forecast to do if they can stop Reform from splitting their vote. Surprise, surprise, this poll shows them achieving that. If it persuades some of those teetering between Reform and Conservative to think that its worth voting Tory after all, then it has achieved a political aim.

---------- Post added at 09:24 ---------- Previous post was at 09:22 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

JL Partners have been around for a while. They were founded by a pollster who worked for Theresa May. The guy himself has a tendency, in my opinion anyway, to put the best possible light on Tory strategy. He sees everything as a clever strategic play that the media/Twitter doesn't get, not always unfairly.

But the poll is legit.

They get different results because of how they deal with Don't Knows. They and Opinium weight by 2019 vote, in other words they take the DKs and see what they did last election.

Other pollsters force them to choose. 'If you HAD to vote today, who would you vote for...'

And others remove them entirely.

What poll you believe depends on what weighting you think makes most sense. We won't know whose right until election day.

Of course the poll is legit - they aren’t just making it up as they go along. But polling 101 is that you affect the output by the way you collect and weight the input. As you said yourself, this operation is run by a Tory fanboy. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

Originally Posted by Chris

Of course the poll is legit - they aren’t just making it up as they go along. But polling 101 is that you affect the output by the way you collect and weight the input. As you said yourself, this operation is run by a Tory fanboy. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

YouGov was also founded by Tories. It doesn't mean they're intentionally biasing the results. This is a polling company looking to get commissioned to do polls and they don't profit by being wrong when the outcome becomes known.

This particular poll was commissioned by 'The Rest is Politics' podcast, owned by Gary Linker and fronted by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. It's a center-to-center-left podcast. So this isn't producing a poll to a client's intentionally biased spec either (which legitimate polling companies try to avoid anyway).

I happen to think the poll is wrong. It's an outlier so far. It has Labour up higher in England and much lower in Scotland and Wales against the evidence we've seen. They have a very intentional DK weighting which benefits the Tories - but it isn't necessarily incorrect to map DKs to their previous vote.

[1andrew1]

Another Conservativs attack fails.

Angela Rayner cleared by HMRC over tax on sale of former home https://www.theguardian.com/politics...=share_btn_url

[Mr K]

The Greens are now ahead of the Tories with the under 50's. I think we might really be seeing the death of a political party (hopefully). And maybe a new force in politics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ters-under-50/

The Conservatives are now in third place among voters under the age of 50 – making them less popular than the Green Party, a new poll suggests.

[Escapee]

This election campaign locally in my part of South Wales, is very different to the last two. In both previous elections, the local social media pages were filled with the "kinder gentler" politics for anyone who had a different view.

This time around there's not a peep so far out of the local and not so local left wing extremists. Last time the local group who are always complaining about tax evasion, brought in a political activist from the Swansea area to assist them. It didn't take much digging to discover he had been convicted of fraud (tax evasion), he had also been caught using fake online profiles and stealing another persons identity.

Why is the campaign so quiet here, where are they I wonder. I can only assume Eco and pro-Palestine protests are giving them more of a kick.