Trump’s Troubles

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I don't see the prosecution against Trump and a search for a new candidate as being linked in any way. And presumably Harris is a shoe-in unless someone wants to be the one Democrat preventing someone from her demographic progressing to the top.

They’re absolutely linked.

Prosecutions along political lines in election year come at political cost. At a point when the Democrats are self evidently at their most desperate the voters will absolutely take notice.

Were one to take a more cynical view the Democrats have committed a large fraud on the voting public by putting forward Biden at all. If he’s incapable of running for the Presidency he’s incapable of occupying the office. He’s squatting in the chair because nobody will pull the trigger on Article 25.

Easy money arguments for the Republican nominee.

The prosecutions started before the election year…

The Atlanta-based grand jury on August 14, 2023, indicted Trump and 18 others on state charges stemming from their alleged efforts to overturn the former president’s 2020 electoral defeat.

Trump was indicted in March 2023 in the Hush Money case in NY.

Trump was indicted in the Classified Documents case in June 2023.

Trump was arraigned on the Election Interference charges in August 2023.

Each of those cases took months, in some cases years, to investigate and put together, and in two of those cases, the charges were brought about by Grand Juries, so not sure how those could have been political…

[jfman]

When, and how, the cases started will make the argument made no less compelling to those already susceptible to Trump narratives.

The Hush Money trial barely moved the dial within the margin of error. The former (and in their minds, next) President having classified documents seems easily distracted from by Hillary’s email server. Some of the more lunatic fringe genuinely believe the election was stolen - they’re hardly going to bat an eye at election cases.

The question will inevitably be asked if any of these cases had any credibility at all the evidence was there in 2021 and 2022.

The bad news for the Democrats is they need a new candidate and they have to beat Trump on merit.

Originally Posted by jfman

Or more Trumped up charges.

Edit: having seen some of the footage that wouldn't be enough. It's over.

While the corpse of Joe Biden would be a better president than Donald Trump, it is unlikely enough people will see it that way to see him back into the White House.

That said, it’s only over if those with influence over Biden fail to get him to step down. There are many examples of presidential candidates not being chosen until it gets to the party convention floor. They are held only the summer before the election precisely because they expect there to be some competition and debate. So it is by no means a disadvantage to the Dems to pick someone else now.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Each of those cases took months, in some cases years, to investigate and put together, and in two of those cases, the charges were brought about by Grand Juries, so not sure how those could have been political…

Trump was always going to run.

---------- Post added at 12:06 ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

While the corpse of Joe Biden would be a better president than Donald Trump, it is unlikely enough people will see it that way to see him back into the White House.

That said, it’s only over if those with influence over Biden fail to get him to step down. There are many examples of presidential candidates not being chosen until it gets to the party convention floor. They are held only the summer before the election precisely because they expect there to be some competition and debate. So it is by no means a disadvantage to the Dems to pick someone else now.

It's Newsom or bust.

They have to get Biden to step down and Harris to step aside.

Neither actions will look good.

Harris stepping aside being the worst optics, as her appointment as VP being shown to be was it was........a diversity hire. A black women look good on the ticket, but no one would ever have her as a presidential candidate.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Trump was always going to run.

---------- Post added at 12:06 ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 ----------



It's Newsom or bust.

They have to get Biden to step down and Harris to step aside.

Neither actions will look good.

Harris stepping aside being the worst optics, as her appointment as VP being shown to be was it was........a diversity hire. A black women look good on the ticket, but no one would ever have her as a presidential candidate.

But that’s not what he said…

Prosecutions along political lines in election year come at political cost

The prosecutions didn’t start in the Election year.

[jfman]

It’s irrelevant when they started unless you sincerely believe that nobody anywhere believes they are political.

Whether they are, or are not, doesn’t matter if someone holds that belief the moment they walk into the ballot box. That’s the political cost.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s irrelevant when they started unless you sincerely believe that nobody anywhere believes they are political.

Whether they are, or are not, doesn’t matter if someone holds that belief the moment they walk into the ballot box. That’s the political cost.

Prosecutions along political lines in election year come at political cost

Make up your mind…

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Make up your mind…

A prosecution can simultaneously start before an election year and continue into an election year.

I do hope the Democrats on the campaign trail have a slightly better tactic to counter the claim than “actually, we filed the paperwork for these in 2023”.

[Itshim]

Biden is trying to get Kennedy off the ballot, the guy has to go, right now Trump will walk it . If Kennedy is off really expect Trump will get my vote . Which chokes me !!!

Originally Posted by jfman

A prosecution can simultaneously start before an election year and continue into an election year.

I do hope the Democrats on the campaign trail have a slightly better tactic to counter the claim than “actually, we filed the paperwork for these in 2023”.

Not sure what your point is?

Are you saying that any investigations/Grand Juries/prosecutions that are underway before an Election Year should be halted when it becomes an Election Year?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Not sure what your point is?

Are you saying that any investigations/Grand Juries/prosecutions that are underway before an Election Year should be halted when it becomes an Election Year?

I think my point would be clearer if you simply read it as stated rather than tried to find a “gotcha” moment within it.

Originally Posted by jfman

The “good news” for Trump is that the optics of simultaneously trying to prosecute him for anything and everything while scrambling around for a candidate to beat him are that bad that the Democrats won’t be stupid enough to pursue it. It’s one or the other.

I expect some of the more spurious cases to disappear and others to be slow walked or to progress with a significantly lower profile if the Democrats are parachuting in someone to replace Biden. I make no judgement as to what I think “should” happen. As I say, it’s terrible optics. In an election that could be lost on a number of votes in the tens of thousands in key states.

Originally Posted by jfman

I think my point would be clearer if you simply read it as stated rather than tried to find a “gotcha” moment within it.



I expect some of the more spurious cases to disappear and others to be slow walked or to progress with a significantly lower profile if the Democrats are parachuting in someone to replace Biden. I make no judgement as to what I think “should” happen. As I say, it’s terrible optics. In an election that could be lost on a number of votes in the tens of thousands in key states.

It’s not a "gotcha" - the investigations/prosecutions/Grand Juries were underway for the last few years, so either you think

a) they shouldn’t have happened at all
b) they should have been halted because it’s an Election Year
c) something else?

btw, which are the "more spurious" cases?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

It’s not a "gotcha" - the investigations/prosecutions/Grand Juries were underway for the last few years, so either you think

a) they shouldn’t have happened at all
b) they should have been halted because it’s an Election Year
c) something else?

btw, which are the "more spurious" cases?

I don’t need to think a) or b) to think the introduction of a new unforeseen factor (a Democrat not selected in the primary process getting the nomination for a reason other than death) combined with prosecutions that could be perceived to be political (and Trump will be adamant it is the case) are bad optics or that Trump won’t link the two to his electoral advantage.

I’m not going to call out a single case - it’s entirely subjective in any case and not relevant to my overarching point. Trump’s role in each is disputed. Despite all this he’s the Republican nominee and either ahead or within the margin of error in almost every poll.

He may well be guilty of all he accused of and every prosecution led by an honest, impartial public servants. That doesn’t matter if his claims to the contrary resonate more against a Democratic party ever increasingly desperate. If ~50% of the country can be convinced, 52% absolutely can too. The politicisation of the justice system allows him to muddy the waters.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

a) they shouldn’t have happened at all

Because, I Believe, they were ultimately politically motivated.

As I said, Trump was always going to run again. He believed the presidency was stolen from him, and he wants his second term.

I firmly believe that if Trump, after he lost. (and although there were questionable things that went on, he did lose) had said publicly that he had no intention to run again whatsoever……….none of those prosecutions happen.