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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Some informed/informative commentary from the RUSI
https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...s-armed-forces
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The overall picture suggests that support for Ukraine is strong and forthcoming. However, these efforts are unlikely to significantly alter the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to resist a determined assault by Russian conventional forces.
The Russian Way of War
The reason for this lies not in the Ukrainian armed forces themselves, but in Russian operational art. Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses has explained how Russian forces would seek to leverage their superiority in long-range fires to achieve decisive effects against an opponent, which could in turn achieve strategic results. This approach eschews the use of massed ground formations in direct confrontations, which are reserved for finishing an opponent’s combat strength, he states. The belief is that by inflicting enough damage to alter an opponent’s course of action, or signal that Russia’s intent is genuine, Russian strategic goals can be achieved without conflict. This level of confrontation may rely upon 'non-contact’ means of warfare. Non-contact warfare in Russian military thinking is taken to mean the use of high-precision weapons like the 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missile against critical targets. The goal is to use the minimum level of force necessary to promote Russia’s regional goals and limit the need to deploy ground forces.
This can be combined with an understanding of wider Russian strategic thinking, which holds that long-range kinetic strikes that converge with cyber and electronic warfare effects in a concerted information campaign are capable of disabling an opponent’s critical networks and command infrastructure at the political and military level, with the goal of either controlling escalation or preventing it altogether.
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tl:dr
Quote:
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The UK and some of its partners remain fully invested in Ukraine’s sovereignty. But their current efforts – however well-meant – are still not likely to achieve this objective.
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