Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
This is the gambler’s fallacy. The outcome of one coin toss doesn’t affect the outcome of any future toss. Every coin toss still has odds of 50/50. Even if you get 10 heads in a row, the odds on the 11th toss are still 50/50.
The odds of a major impact event can be calculated by looking at how often these things have happened in the past, but that’s all it is - an estimate of how many times something will happen in the future based on how many times it has happened in the past. If a once-in-a-century event doesn’t occur for 5 centuries, then we don’t assume an event is imminent, but we do perhaps recalculate the odds.
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The odds of the coin toss might be near to 50/50 each individual toss but in terms of probability you aren't going to toss 50 heads out of 50. That notwithstanding your second paragraph is probably a far better way of assessing it rather than flipping a coin!
---------- Post added at 10:57 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halcyon
Slightly off topic but.... Surely some coins have more weight to one side or the other. eg. the more embossed area of the queens head against whatever is on the flip side.
This could influence the toss.
As to asteroids....We are safe for another 100 years atleast.
I'd be more worried about heading up in a rocket and crashing into space debris.
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It's true I remember some egg head report saying similar, I'd try and find it but my eyesight isn't good at the moment, don't think they insinuated anything untoward like a weightier side or anything, just that heads wins slightly more often