Re: Season 22-23
I think it would have been expected England would get out of the group and probably the 2nd round. If we'd come 2nd we would have probably played Netherlands and then Argentina still which would have worked out similar to Senegal and France.
In terms of expected progress I suppose the only thing you can look at is the FIFA world rankings (those in bold are still in it)
1 Brazil
2 Belgium
3 Argentina
4 France
5 England
6 Italy
7 Spain
8 Netherlands
9 Portugal
10 Denmark
11 Germany
12 Croatia
13 Mexico
14 Uruguay
15 Switzerland
16 USA
17 Colombia
18 Senegal
19 Wales
20 IR Iran
21 Serbia
22 Morocco
23 Peru
24 Japan
25 Sweden
26 Poland
27 Ukraine
28 Korea Republic
Guess here you could make the reasonable assumption the higher ranked team is the favourite. So far we haven't played anyone above us in the rankings but both possible opponents (depending on group progress not the other match) would have been above us. So QF is expected progress here.
Also goes to show how much of an upset it was for Belgium to go out in the groups and of course Italy not to qualify at all.
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