Damien

Do they care?

I think this conflict has shown people overestimated Russia's military capability and Putin's strategic mind but I think we also overestimated Putin's pragmatism.

We assume Putin is smart enough not to escalate this war into something that could threaten Russia itself but his actions so far have not shown someone who is thinking clearly or strategically. He could quite possibly actually be ill and not of a sound mind. Worse of all, I am not sure he'll distinguish between an existential threat to himself and that of Russia. If this war goes so badly he faces a threat to his position from the even more hawkish element of the Kremlin then he may well feel forced to act on it.

The fact that what criticism is coming out from Russia isn't about the invasion itself but the military failure also suggests that escalation rather than de-escalation is Putin's only option.

I am not arguing that we need to pull back from support for the Ukraine war, we cannot allow a precedent of nuclear threats allowing Russia to invade where they like. We have to press on regardless. I just think we're underpricing the threat here and that we need to remember however illogical an escalation might seem that oftentimes in history people are boxed into their paths by other forces.

We're set on this path because we cannot allow Russia to annex countries and threaten nuclear war to maintain that land. Putin is set on the path because domestic forces don't allow him to withdraw gracefully from this conflict.