Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackshep
Putin has a whole load of domestic issues that aren't going away he's also angering many in the Russian military who are seeing their real budgets cut to pay for his nuclear modernisation program. Politically Nalvany has done a lot of damage and the sloppy response by Putin is concerning his normally stalwart supporter's whom he relies on. Putin is frantically playing the evil west attacking Russia card but it's failing with the majority of Russians wanting domestic issues that impact them daily sorted out.
If he does invade Ukraine he needs a very quick and decisive victory or it will be the final nail in his coffin and that's why material aid to Ukraine is ramping up. If they can blunt initial attack's not only will Putin have damaged his best and favoured front line force's but will expose Russia to harsh diplomatic and economical sanctions that will compound the domestic troubles. Right now it comes down to how desperate he is.
|
I'm not sure I buy this, he's pretty much leader for life, I'd suggest an alternative scenario, he knows Ukraine joining the EU or Nato isn't going to happen anytime soon, so he's either exerting his authority over what he considers Russia's sphere of influence, which is a Soviet concept that predates WWII incidentally or he intends rebuilding the empire lost when the Berlin Wall came down. The problem is negotiation, they don't really do it and if they can spot a weakness or a reluctance by any single nato ally to carry out threats they'll exploit that rather than compromise