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Originally Posted by Chris
The best outcome in 2024 IMO is that Ukraine prevents significant advances by Russia.
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They've being doing that for 12 months, the lines haven't changed significantly for a year.
Russia, I think, for the time being is content to hold what they have taken.
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Russia now knows it has to push hard to get what it can before the new tranche of aid gets to the front.
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Does it though. You don't think that Russia's economy and industry hasn't been on a war footing while there's been a pause, you don't think Russia is re-arming and re-grouping?
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The offensive we hoped to see in summer of 2023 will likely occur this time next year.
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We've had a year of essentially two punch drunk fighters not doing too much, the odd swing from a missile or drone. They've punched each other out. So what do you think two rested and re-armed fighters are going to do, probably just beat each other to a pulp again.
---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:36 ----------
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Originally Posted by ianch99
Don't forget that the reason why Pierre wants someone to guess at the "best outcome" is so he can underwrite his position that Ukraine "negotiates" a deal that would leaves Russia in control of large swathes of occupied Ukraine.
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That's because, I believe, that Ukraine will struggle to achieve their objectives of pushing Russia back to pre-2014 boundaries.
So the difference between my best outcome and yours is not different in regards to Russia, in say 2-3 years time, still controlling large swathes of occupied Ukraine.
I believe the only difference between both our scenarios is less people die in mine.