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Originally Posted by Chris
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The best outcome in 2024 IMO is that Ukraine prevents significant advances by Russia. It shouldn’t have come to this but posturing in the US Congress held up military aid for months and Ukraine has been forced to ration its stockpiles. Russia now knows it has to push hard to get what it can before the new tranche of aid gets to the front. Ukraine will have a few sticky months but it will hold on.
The offensive we hoped to see in summer of 2023 will likely occur this time next year. |
I had already replied to this question i.e. we should support the wishes of the Ukrainian people in their fight against the invasion. What the result of this support will be is uncertain. This is in the hands of the West, in terms of the support they will give and in the hands of the Ukrainian people themselves if they decide that they are unable to fight Russia on their own.
As I mentioned, the will to fight still seems strong so we (the West) should give them all the help they need to resist the occupation. I feel appeasement, as history tells us, would be a mistake.
Don't forget that the reason why Pierre wants someone to guess at the "best outcome" is so he can underwrite his position that Ukraine "negotiates" a deal that would leaves Russia in control of large swathes of occupied Ukraine. His words:
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I think that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia. I ,personally, don't believe it is a war Ukraine can win. (i.e removing Russia totally from all of Ukraine)
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Remember that Ukraine, on its own, has no bargaining position so Russia would essentially dictate terms. This is what, it seems, is the "desired outcome" for some here.