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Re: The Chronicles of Rishi
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
15,000 is a big opinion poll. Presumably this has allowed them to do some decent regional modelling rather than assuming a uniform swing. Whatever methodology they’ve used is predicting the SNP will do less badly than some polls have suggested recently.
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I thought there might be something for Reform in the poll, but (so far) can’t find the source data…
Update - found it.
https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling
Quote:
REFORM UK
The Labour Party have had a significant lead across all three of Best for Britain’s most recent MRP publications in May 2022; December 2022; May 2023 - but none as dismal as this for Sunak’s party. This latest downturn for the Conservatives can be almost entirely attributed to the impact of Reform UK.
In the majority of seats across the country, Reform UK have increased their vote share significantly compared to the last MRP fielded by Survation in December 2023. Mostly this comes at the expense of the Conservatives, so much so that Reform UK have become the second largest party in seven seats.
Although they command 8.5% of the national vote share, in 207 seats their vote share is above 10%, and in 47 seats their vote share is over 15%. With this level of support, if they stand down their candidates as UKIP did in 2017, and the Brexit Party (Reform UK’s previous name), did in 2019, Reform UK could significantly boost the Conservative seat haul.
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https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content...024-03-28.xlsx
Some interesting forecast results…
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Last edited by Hugh; 30-03-2024 at 20:50.
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