Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
You can’t measure by-election results like that, during Thatchers reign in the mid 80’s, she and her party lost several by-elections, it looked like the Tories were doomed, however, history shows the Conservatives remained in power, right up until 1997.
Labour are unelectable, everything they touch, turns to shit, they can’t even decide that a woman born with a vagina, is an actual woman.  |
The Tories and Labour also lost by-elections before they lost in the subsequent General Election.
By-elections are not necessarily indicative of the result of the General Election but they are not a bad barometer of how the public is feeling now. They can't be dismissed out of hand. At the moment, Labour is ahead.
The other problem is the theory that Governments slump mid-term before coming back is based on the idea that they are getting the unpopular measures out of the way first before those measures pay off in time for the General or at least their unpopularity fades over time. This Government is only now heading into a time of high inflation and possibly recession with high living costs. It's hard to see where the turnaround is going to come from.
The advantage the Tories have is that for Starmer to even match a hung Parliament he has to win more seats than any other Labour leader since 1997, such is the damage Corbyn did to the party. The fact we're talking about how him falling short of a majority is possibly a failure is a sign of how badly Johnson has tanked the Tory Party.