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Originally Posted by Pierre
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It's the press who are fault here, not the scientists. They pick up figures from these studies and run with them with to regard to the uncertainties. That 75,000 figure in the Guardian who are amongst the worst for this is the worst case where previous immunity and booster effectiveness is poor.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicines study is very clear on what was known and not known at that time;
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There is still substantial uncertainty surrounding the biological characteristics of the Omicron variant (particularly its clinical severity), the effectiveness of existing vaccines and pharmaceuticals, and the efficacy of control measures enacted by policymakers for suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission
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Here is the study BTW
It looks like the whole study assumed that the severity of Omicron was the same as for Delta. Without good data at that time, they can only work with the information they do have and therefore used an existing variant as the baseline.
As always, the question needs to be asked is what are the consequences of being wrong? Over reacting and locking down hard when it wasn't needed will affect economies. Under reacting and not locking down when it was needed will kill people