Quote:
Originally Posted by nffc
From what I understand, they are saying that your natural immunity to some viruses wanes over time (potentially as they mutate - I don't think they've ever really been sequencing things like noroviruses or colds as much as they have with covid-19) which means that the longer you're not exposed to a cold virus the more likely you are to get ill with one (and probably the more you are the more likely your immune system will be able to recognise it and fight it off.
The viruses are still circulating as they have reservoirs in other species (which may or may not cause the same illness) for example noro is in shellfish and oysters so even if humans aren't getting them they're still out there.
I suppose one possibility is that if we say that it takes 20 mutations of a cold virus to make it swerve your immunity, and that it does 1 mutation every month, if you get exposure to a cold virus 5 months after your previous one your immune system will recognise it from the one it saw 5 months ago and know what to do, so you either don't get ill or don't get it as badly; but if you've gone the full 20 months then it's unrecognisable (in the theoretical situation) so you'll get the full effects of it.
So if the measures put in place to combat covid (whether or not they actually worked, we have mixed less with others) stop other viruses spreading too (which is logical) it's entirely correct that you'll see a spike in other things, which is exactly what the CMO said in the summer.
|
Add to that the 5 month infection "resets" the clock to the next 20 providing the mutations are "linear". So if you are infected say every 8 months your immunity may give protection from serious illness each time and each time you body learns a bit more.