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**Damien** · 24-01-2021, 21:57

I find the messaging from the Government about when we can expect this lockdown to end a bit weird.

The lockdown looks like it's working. The cases have been trending downwards (deaths, a lagging indicator, will still increase for a week or so) as have the predictions of the 'R' number and the ONS projections of how many people are infected.

In addition to the lockdown working the vaccinations are still speeding along with nearly 500,000 people getting a vaccinated a day.

By March we should see far fewer cases and a drop off in hospitalisations and deaths. That will also come at a time when the majority of the top four groups classified as most at risk have been vaccinated.

I understand they've been caught out before with optimistic projections/assumptions that backfired so I fully understand the reluctance to commit to a hard date but why not share with us the metrics they'll use to end this. Even rough ones.

Are we talking a reduction in cases and the R Number to the same level as the spring? Or are we talking about all four at risk groups being vaccinated + some % of what remains? A bit of both?

What is it?

24-01-2021, 21:57	#3044
Damien Remoaner Cable Forum Team Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 32,271	Re: Coronavirus I find the messaging from the Government about when we can expect this lockdown to end a bit weird. The lockdown looks like it's working. The cases have been trending downwards (deaths, a lagging indicator, will still increase for a week or so) as have the predictions of the 'R' number and the ONS projections of how many people are infected. In addition to the lockdown working the vaccinations are still speeding along with nearly 500,000 people getting a vaccinated a day. By March we should see far fewer cases and a drop off in hospitalisations and deaths. That will also come at a time when the majority of the top four groups classified as most at risk have been vaccinated. I understand they've been caught out before with optimistic projections/assumptions that backfired so I fully understand the reluctance to commit to a hard date but why not share with us the metrics they'll use to end this. Even rough ones. Are we talking a reduction in cases and the R Number to the same level as the spring? Or are we talking about all four at risk groups being vaccinated + some % of what remains? A bit of both? What is it?