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Mick 08-10-2020 14:00

Coronavirus
 
New thread to continue the discussion on Covid-19 (Coronavirus).

Sephiroth 08-10-2020 14:13

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 

Although I'm in an at risk group, I'm moving towards the idea of letting the virus rip to achieve herd immunity. I can take measures to minimise my own risk (without giving up my trips to Waitrose, Wokingham).

Why am I not yet fully convinced? There isn't enough evidence as to the longevity of antibodies, the number in the system, how many it needs to fight off the virus, etc.

My fear is that it may take some time for these questions to be answered during which time the economy might tank beyond the point of no reasonable return.

The government is obviously wrestling with this and may even think that the economy is more important than an on-balance calculation as regards CV.

Very difficult for them.



tweetiepooh 08-10-2020 14:35

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Yup - misquoting the dear old beeb - the health department wants more controls/lockdowns to prevent disease spread and protect demand on NHS
Number 11 want to get the economy moving, get trading/spending back, get jobs/companies working.
Number 10 has to balance it all.

downquark1 08-10-2020 14:38

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36053044)
Yup - misquoting the dear old beeb - the health department wants more controls/lockdowns to prevent disease spread and protect demand on NHS
Number 11 want to get the economy moving, get trading/spending back, get jobs/companies working.
Number 10 has to balance it all.

As it should be. Not "Boris descends into hell and fails to defeat death, what a shambles. Jesus quoted as calling him a loser"

1andrew1 08-10-2020 14:47

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36053046)
As it should be. Not "Boris descends into hell and fails to defeat death, what a shambles. Jesus quoted as calling him a loser"

There's elements of the government's approach that can sadly be called a shambles though.

downquark1 08-10-2020 14:54

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36053047)
There's elements of the government's approach that can sadly be called a shambles though.

Oh I agree, just not everything.

nomadking 08-10-2020 14:56

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36053047)
There's elements of the government's approach that can sadly be called a shambles though.

Compared to where?
How are other parts of the world doing? Eg Wales, Scotland, France, Spain, and all the other countries on the "quarantine on return" list?

The only countries that are doing "well" are ones that were never badly affected in the first place. The less people that are bringing it into the country, the less cases will happen in that country.

Chris 08-10-2020 15:03

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Nippy Sturgeon’s Covid-free strategy (loudly applauded over the summer, especially by Scottish nationalists and English people who know no better but assume she’s some sort of socialist goddess) is in tatters. There is mounting evidence that the R number here is now higher than anywhere else in the UK despite her supposedly more cautious approach to lifting restrictions.

I wonder whether we’ll ever get a satisfactory explanation as to why she threw Tory/Labour-voting Aberdeen into lockdown in the summer with an infection rate only a fraction of that now seen in nationalist Glasgow, which has been pretty much getting away with it until now. :scratch:

downquark1 08-10-2020 15:05

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36053052)
There is mounting evidence that the R number here is now higher than anywhere else in the UK despite her supposedly more cautious approach to lifting restrictions.

Given the population density of Scotland that is a scientific wonder. On the other hand they all have vitamin D deficiency up there.

jfman 08-10-2020 15:07

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36053051)
Compared to where?
How are other parts of the world doing? Eg Wales, Scotland, France, Spain, and all the other countries on the "quarantine on return" list?

The only countries that are doing "well" are ones that were never badly affected in the first place. The less people that are bringing it into the country, the less cases will happen in that country.

Arguably those "never badly affected" implemented all the appropriate measures you should do in a pandemic to get the virus under control.

Chris 08-10-2020 15:08

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36053053)
Given the population density of Scotland that is a scientific wonder. On the other hand they all have vitamin D deficiency up there.

The average population density of Scotland is somewhat meaningless given how much of it is barely habitable mountains. ;)

More than 60% of the population lives in the central belt, where the present number of infections, while only around half of that in Liverpool or Manchester, is showing signs of very rapid increase. The additional measures coming into effect this weekend are meant to head off a possible doubling of cases by the end of the month.

jfman 08-10-2020 15:10

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36053053)
Given the population density of Scotland that is a scientific wonder. On the other hand they all have vitamin D deficiency up there.

In fairness it's the population centres that are seeing the rises.

The R number from a low rate of infection only needs a couple of major outbreaks to rocket. If you're trundling along at thousands of cases per day consistently R is closer to 1.

Mad Max 08-10-2020 15:24

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
I posted this in the recently closed thread.


I know its the Sun, but we could all do with something to give us some hope.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/128728...jab-christmas/

1andrew1 08-10-2020 15:36

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36053049)
Oh I agree, just not everything.

For sure. On the other thread, hundreds of pages back, people have summarised what the government's done well eg furlough and what it's done less well eg track and trace.

downquark1 08-10-2020 15:38

Re: Coronavirus NEW
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36053062)
For sure. On the other thread, hundreds of pages back, people have summarised what the government's done well eg furlough and what it's done less well eg track and trace.

That is true, but I would say that a robust track and trace program is difficult to implement on short notice. And I worry we are too densely populated for it to be effective.


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