What are the odds of winning?
So, this has been circling the Internet for years and was once the concept of a gameshow in the U.S.
The question is, what do you pick? What are your chances? Quote:
Many people say it is not 50/50 and go into long explanations about it. In my opinion, once you have been shown the booby prize in one of the doors and you picked the other door, then your chance of winning is 50/50 as there is your door you selected and the other door. So it is in either yours or the other one. . |
Re: What are the odds of winning?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
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Re: What are the odds of winning?
That Wiki explanation is a bit long-winded. Easier to say "the chance of you picking the car to start with is 1/3. So the chance of it remaining behind another door is 2/3. It's not the door the host opens, so the 2/3 chance must be the other door".
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---------- Post added at 14:19 ---------- Previous post was at 14:00 ---------- ps. If you want some software to help you, here's some we prepared earlier: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...9#post34854319 |
Re: What are the odds of winning?
The 1st round is immaterial, as you still don't know whether your 1st choice was right or wrong. There is a 50/50 chance of selecting the right one. Doesn't matter whether you stick with or swap your original choice.
There is no win or lose event for the 1st round, so you can't multiply the two probabilities together. Doesn't matter which one of the 3 you pick in the first round, as you are starting again with just 2 choices. If it was 2 rounds with 2 different people separately and independently, making the selection and both had to be right, then yes you can multiply the probabilities together to get a 1 in 6 chance of both people being right. |
Re: What are the odds of winning?
At the point of your final choice, there are two doors, and you dont know which one has the car, so your odds are 50/50. How can they possibly be anything else ?
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Re: What are the odds of winning?
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If you don't believe it, make 3 cards (2 goats and a car), ask a friend to be the host, and play a few games. Or write yourself a computer simulation. |
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Re: What are the odds of winning?
But you don’t…
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If it was the situation that if you guessed correctly in the 1st round, you would win, then EVERYBODY would win. As if you lost in the 1st round, you would know that it definitely was the one of the remaining 2, you didn't pick 1st time around. |
Re: What are the odds of winning?
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You pick a box. The chance that you have picked the car is 1 in a million. So the chance that the car is in one of the other boxes is 999,999 in a million. The host now opens 999,998 boxes that he knows contain a goat. So the chance that the car is in the one remaining box is 999,999 in a million. So do you want to keep your original pick (1 in a million), or do you want to swap (999,999 in a million)? Do you like goats? |
Re: What are the odds of winning?
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You have two doors, and no idea which is the correct one, your chances are equal, how can one possibly be more likely then the other ? Quote:
Again, you are left with two doors, and you dont know which one is right, how are your odds at that point anything other than 50/50 ? ---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ---------- Quote:
Only the host knows where the car is, you have no clue at all, as far as you are ever concerned, its behind one door other the other, you have no further information at all to help you decide, so your odds of being right when asked to choose again are 50/50. |
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