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-   -   Russia has invaded Ukraine (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33710768)

Mick 24-01-2022 07:49
Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: U.S advises families of American embassy staff to leave Ukraine due to increased threat of Russia invading Ukraine. Russia has amassed over 100,000 soldiers at the Ukraine border.

From DefconWarning System:

Quote:
There are reports that the United States is contemplating sending troops to the Baltics and European theater in response to Russian buildup. This is simply an option the military has presented. The report does not say if the U.S. is actually considering this option.

OLD BOY 24-01-2022 07:55
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Sleepy Joe has already ruled out military action, hasn’t he? - but then he’s probably forgotten what he said by now.

Damien 24-01-2022 09:31
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36110776)
Sleepy Joe has already ruled out military action, hasn’t he? - but then he’s probably forgotten what he said by now.
Well, no one is expecting us to go to war with Russia.

All we really have is supplying Ukraine with weapons and sanctions on Russia. Make it cost them as much as we possibly can.

Mick 24-01-2022 10:03
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
LATEST: UK follows U.S in withdrawing embassy staff from Ukraine.

Quote:
The UK is withdrawing some embassy staff and dependants from Ukraine in response to the "growing threat" from Russia.

In a statement, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office stressed that the British embassy in Kyiv "remains open and will continue to carry out essential work".

Sky News understands the staff being withdrawn are non-essential and the embassy remains fully operational.

Hours earlier, the US ordered the families of all American embassy staff in the capital to leave Ukraine amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion.
https://news.sky.com/story/us-orders...asion-12524067

1andrew1 24-01-2022 10:07
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110784)
Well, no one is expecting us to go to war with Russia.

All we really have is supplying Ukraine with weapons and sanctions on Russia. Make it cost them as much as we possibly can.
Should we have made them a NATO member? That way, Russia would not contemplate invading them.

Mick 24-01-2022 10:15
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
BREAKING: Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said Russian naval exercises in international waters in the Irish Sea are "not welcome". He is said to be liaising with the European Union that Russia should not be conducting any kind of military activity near its coastline. Source Sky News (link in above post)

Damien 24-01-2022 10:17
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110792)
BREAKING: Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said Russian naval exercises in international waters in the Irish Sea are "not welcome". He is said to be liaising with the European Union that Russia should not be conducting any kind of military activity near its coastline. Source Sky News (link in above post)
Kind of seems like that's our responsibility. Ireland and the Irish Sea are obviously important to UK Security. :erm:

joglynne 24-01-2022 10:20
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110792)
BREAKING: Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said Russian naval exercises in international waters in the Irish Sea are "not welcome". He is said to be liaising with the European Union that Russia should not be conducting any kind of military activity near its coastline. Source Sky News (link in above post)
Guessing our Navy will be keeping a close eye on them as we speak.

Mick 24-01-2022 10:27
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Shit, this is getting real: Nato now says it is sending additional ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe amid Russia’s troop build-up near Ukraine.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 10:27
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110793)
Kind of seems like that's our responsibility. Ireland and the Irish Sea are obviously important to UK Security. :erm:
Could this be a reason why Johnson is no longer taking pot shots at the EU?

It's also looks like a distraction technique from Russia.

Sephiroth 24-01-2022 10:34
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36110797)
Could this be a reason why Johnson is no longer taking pot shots at the EU?

It's also looks like a distraction technique from Russia.
What? Where do you get that from? He's got too much else on his plate to be bothering with pot-shots at the EU.

This issue is an acid test for NATO and it's exactly what Putin wants to discover - is NATO made of straw or steel?

Hugh 24-01-2022 10:37
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36110776)
Sleepy Joe has already ruled out military action, hasn’t he? - but then he’s probably forgotten what he said by now.
https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-au...e/6408170.html

Quote:
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday he authorized the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to send U.S.-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, a move that comes amid Ukraine’s rising tensions with neighboring Russia.

“I expedited and authorized, and we fully endorse transfers of defensive equipment @NATO Allies Estonia Latvia Lithuania are providing to Ukraine to strengthen its ability to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked and irresponsible aggression,”
Quote:
U.S. President Joe Biden focused on Ukraine Saturday. In a statement the White House said, “President Biden met with his national security team in person and virtually at Camp David to discuss continued Russian aggressive actions toward Ukraine. President Biden was briefed on the current state of Russian military operations on Ukraine’s borders and discussed both our ongoing efforts to de-escalate the situation with diplomacy and our range of deterrence measures that are being coordinated closely with our Allies and partners, including ongoing deliveries of security assistance to Ukraine. President Biden again affirmed that should Russia further invade Ukraine, the United States will impose swift and severe consequences on Russia with our Allies and partners.”
Quote:
Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met for about an hour and a half in Geneva, with both officials refusing to budge on core demands.

Blinken, in particular, described the impasse in stark terms.

“If any of Russia’s military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion. It will be met with a swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies,” Blinken told reporters after the meeting.

Damien 24-01-2022 10:39
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
NATO won't respond with military force.

If Russia invades Ukraine they're taking Ukraine. Everyone, including Putin, knows this. It's how can we make life difficult for him afterwards. The West is out of options beyond that really because in the end we're not risking war with a nuclear power, or a conventional war with a country the size of Russia.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 10:42
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110803)
NATO won't respond with military force.

If Russia invades Ukraine they're taking Ukraine. Everyone, including Putin, knows this. It's how can we make life difficult for him afterwards. The West is out of options beyond that really because in the end we're not risking war with a nuclear power, or a conventional war with a country the size of Russia.
Agreed. If anyone thinks US troops will be fighting Russian troops in Ukraine, they're the sleepy one!

nomadking 24-01-2022 10:45
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110792)
BREAKING: Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said Russian naval exercises in international waters in the Irish Sea are "not welcome". He is said to be liaising with the European Union that Russia should not be conducting any kind of military activity near its coastline. Source Sky News (link in above post)
Irish Sea? The bit between Ireland and GB? Nonsense.
Of course NATO and others didn't hold exercises in the Black Sea off the Russian coast did they?:rolleyes:
Link

Quote:
Over 2,000 forces and 30 ships are taking part in exercise Breeze 2021 in the Black Sea. The Bulgarian-led maritime exercise, which began on 12 July and wraps up today (19 July), involves forces from 14 NATO Allies and partners – Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States.

Mick 24-01-2022 10:46
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110803)
NATO won't respond with military force.

If Russia invades Ukraine they're taking Ukraine. Everyone, including Putin, knows this. It's how can we make life difficult for him afterwards. The West is out of options beyond that really because in the end we're not risking war with a nuclear power, or a conventional war with a country the size of Russia.
Ukraine has a sizeable Army, 255,000 man-forced. It won’t be taken that easily, and I can’t see rest of the world just sitting back and allowing this, because China will be weighing its options on invading Taiwan if Russia takes Ukraine and the world sits back and does nothing.

Damien 24-01-2022 10:53
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110806)
Ukraine has a sizeable Army, 255,000 man-forced. It won’t be taken that easily, and I can’t see rest of the world just sitting back and allowing this, because China will be weighing its options on invading Taiwan if Russia takes Ukraine and the world sits back and does nothing.
It hopefully wouldn't be easy especially if they're well supplied from the West but they'll eventually take it. Again, just makes it really costly for them to do so. Then hit them with every economic and political sanction we can.

But what else do you see the world - which in case would basically be NATO - doing about it?

Mick 24-01-2022 10:57
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110808)
It hopefully wouldn't be easy especially if they're well supplied from the West but they'll eventually take it. Again, just makes it really costly for them to do so. Then hit them with every economic and political sanction we can.

But what else do you see the world - which in case would basically be NATO - doing about it?
I really don’t know. Because the obvious thing we don’t want is this to become game over with Nuclear warfare.

LATEST from NATO:

Quote:
Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and deploying F-16 war planes to Lithuania. Spain is sending ships to join NATO’s standing maritime force and considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria. France stands ready to send troops to Bulgaria, NATO said.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 11:26
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110806)
Ukraine has a sizeable Army, 255,000 man-forced. It won’t be taken that easily, and I can’t see rest of the world just sitting back and allowing this, because China will be weighing its options on invading Taiwan if Russia takes Ukraine and the world sits back and does nothing.
How can the world prevent it?

Mick 24-01-2022 12:24
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
BREAKING: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Vladimir Putin that invading Ukraine would be a “disastrous step” and a “painful, violent and bloody business”.

Hugh 24-01-2022 13:26
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36110805)
Irish Sea? The bit between Ireland and GB? Nonsense.
Of course NATO and others didn't hold exercises in the Black Sea off the Russian coast did they?:rolleyes:
Link
Quote:
The exercise aims to enhance interoperability among participating units and strengthen NATO’s readiness in the Black Sea region. “The Black Sea is of strategic importance to NATO. The Alliance remains strongly committed to Black Sea security,” said NATO Deputy Spokesperson Piers Cazalet.
Don’t remember the Irish Sea being of strategic importance to the Russians.

Also, comparing 2,000 troops in that exercise with the 100,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is a little fallacious.

Also, from your link
Quote:
Since Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, NATO has increased its presence in the Black Sea. NATO ships routinely operate in the Black Sea, consistent with international law, usually patrolling the waters for around two-thirds of the year.

bigsinky 24-01-2022 13:32
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
see OZ, japan and a few others are advising citizens not to travel to Ukraine

Carth 24-01-2022 13:41
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
If Russia does go ahead, every country in Europe should retaliate by refusing to buy their gas . . . oh wait :rolleyes:

Pierre 24-01-2022 13:42
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110803)
If Russia invades Ukraine they're taking Ukraine.
The Ukraine does have an army and air force. Russia may well be much bigger and potentially better but I doubt the Ukraine (supported heavily by NATO) would let Russia just walk in unopposed.

The question then is how much conflict and losses Putin willing to pursue and accept?

Damien 24-01-2022 13:47
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36110827)
The Ukraine does have an army and air force. Russia may well be much bigger and potentially better but I doubt the Ukraine (supported heavily by NATO) would let Russia just walk in unopposed.

The question then is how much conflict and losses Putin willing to pursue and accept?
Exactly which is why the best we can do for now is supply Ukraine to make sure that cost is high. If they can hold them off they'll find themselves with a lot of material support and intelligence support from NATO.

Hugh 24-01-2022 14:12
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Some informed/informative commentary from the RUSI

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...s-armed-forces

Quote:
The overall picture suggests that support for Ukraine is strong and forthcoming. However, these efforts are unlikely to significantly alter the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to resist a determined assault by Russian conventional forces.

The Russian Way of War

The reason for this lies not in the Ukrainian armed forces themselves, but in Russian operational art. Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses has explained how Russian forces would seek to leverage their superiority in long-range fires to achieve decisive effects against an opponent, which could in turn achieve strategic results. This approach eschews the use of massed ground formations in direct confrontations, which are reserved for finishing an opponent’s combat strength, he states. The belief is that by inflicting enough damage to alter an opponent’s course of action, or signal that Russia’s intent is genuine, Russian strategic goals can be achieved without conflict. This level of confrontation may rely upon 'non-contact’ means of warfare. Non-contact warfare in Russian military thinking is taken to mean the use of high-precision weapons like the 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missile against critical targets. The goal is to use the minimum level of force necessary to promote Russia’s regional goals and limit the need to deploy ground forces.

This can be combined with an understanding of wider Russian strategic thinking, which holds that long-range kinetic strikes that converge with cyber and electronic warfare effects in a concerted information campaign are capable of disabling an opponent’s critical networks and command infrastructure at the political and military level, with the goal of either controlling escalation or preventing it altogether.
tl:dr
Quote:
The UK and some of its partners remain fully invested in Ukraine’s sovereignty. But their current efforts – however well-meant – are still not likely to achieve this objective.

Carth 24-01-2022 14:30
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
this ^^

They'll just lob rockets* at things until it's time to go in and mop up


*simple term for complicated stuff

Damien 24-01-2022 14:37
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
I don't know a lot about weapons e.t.c.

Does anyone know if Israel's Iron Dome works against the kinds of missiles a state entity would fire or is it only for rockets e.t.c?

jonbxx 24-01-2022 16:01
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36110821)
Don’t remember the Irish Sea being of strategic importance to the Russians.
I dunno, head north and you have Faslane where our nuclear missile subs live and it's not a million miles as the missile flies from Île Longue in Brittany where the French subs are...

Chris 24-01-2022 16:07
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110838)
I don't know a lot about weapons e.t.c.

Does anyone know if Israel's Iron Dome works against the kinds of missiles a state entity would fire or is it only for rockets e.t.c?
Iron Dome is really designed to stop short range rockets and ballistic shells of the sort lobbed into Israel from Gaza. For stopping heavyweight missiles you need David’s Sling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David's_Sling?wprov=sfti1

Damien 24-01-2022 16:23
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36110856)
Iron Dome is really designed to stop short range rockets and ballistic shells of the sort lobbed into Israel from Gaza. For stopping heavyweight missiles you need David’s Sling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David's_Sling?wprov=sfti1
They know how to name things.

I remember a while ago putting Star Wars in Eastern Europe was deemed provocative to Russia, might as well look at it again.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 16:42
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36110859)
They know how to name things.

I remember a while ago putting Star Wars in Eastern Europe was deemed provocative to Russia, might as well look at it again.
Agreed. The West needs to harness its technological strengths.

Sephiroth 24-01-2022 17:12
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
There will be all sorts of quiet goings on militarily, I reckon.

It strikes me that we have a "Def Con" situation and maybe we/NATO should at this stage invoke some exclusion zones to keep Russian spy ships away.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 17:19
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36110827)
The Ukraine...
Pedant mode. Ukraine not the Ukraine. ;)

Hom3r 24-01-2022 17:36
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Well at least I'm too old to join the army.


Many years ago during Gulf War II, I was in a job that gave me protected status as the job I did would have been vital for our forces, the OSA stops me saying exactly what.

nomadking 24-01-2022 18:11
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36110821)
Don’t remember the Irish Sea being of strategic importance to the Russians.

Also, comparing 2,000 troops in that exercise with the 100,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is a little fallacious.

Also, from your link
My point being they are NOT planning to be in the Irish Sea.
The 2,000 were just the naval personnel.

Quote:
Friday’s exercise ran in parallel to Sea Breeze 2021 – a major annual naval exercise in the Black Sea - which involves 5,000 troops from NATO and other countries and around 30 ships and 40 aircraft.
So that's 7,000 naval and air personnel just in the Black Sea area.
Then there are the NATO troops that have been involved in exercises in Ukraine. Why the need to hold the exercises on Russia's doorstep?
Two years ago, NATO planned exercises(Neptune Strike 22) due for next month in the Med, involving at least 3 carrier groups. Is that meant to be a sign of aggressive intent?
NATO exercises seem to be more about systems, than numbers. Why else would one of them in Ukraine involve the Washington National Guard?

Hugh 24-01-2022 18:30
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36110878)
My point being they are NOT planning to be in the Irish Sea.
The 2,000 were just the naval personnel.

So that's 7,000 naval and air personnel just in the Black Sea area.
Then there are the NATO troops that have been involved in exercises in Ukraine. Why the need to hold the exercises on Russia's doorstep?
Two years ago, NATO planned exercises(Neptune Strike 22) due for next month in the Med, involving at least 3 carrier groups. Is that meant to be a sign of aggressive intent?
NATO exercises seem to be more about systems, than numbers. Why else would one of them in Ukraine involve the Washington National Guard?
Because the point of exercises is to simulate what might happen in the real world should an aggressor decide to attack, including where it would happen - the layout of the land is very important.

It seems strange you don’t have the same passion about the Russian aggression/annexation in Crimea, and the ongoing fighting since then between Russian proxy forces and Ukraine - or is it OK because it’s Russia?

Mr K 24-01-2022 18:49
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
The West has been divided and weakened by Russian interference in our elections. We're weak they know it and will walk in, knowing we're incapable if doing anything. Job well done by them.

papa smurf 24-01-2022 18:55
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36110889)
The West has been divided and weakened by Russian interference in our elections. We're weak they know it and will walk in, knowing we're incapable if doing anything. Job well done by them.
And Beijing Barry ;)

nomadking 24-01-2022 19:20
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36110882)
Because the point of exercises is to simulate what might happen in the real world should an aggressor decide to attack, including where it would happen - the layout of the land is very important.

It seems strange you don’t have the same passion about the Russian aggression/annexation in Crimea, and the ongoing fighting since then between Russian proxy forces and Ukraine - or is it OK because it’s Russia?
NATO has plenty of land and sea to "play" with. Russia in wintertime not so much. Eg What's the Washington National Guard doing in Ukraine? Washington State not big enough or suitable enough?:confused:
IIRC 60% of Crimean population is Russian. There was a vote, which is more than Eastern Ukraine(largely Russian) has been allowed.
Air attacks on Eastern Ukrainian rebels ok, but air attacks on Syrian rebels isn't? Not exactly consistent is it?

Nothing to do with whether something involves Russia or not, it's the matter of the staggering levels of hypocrisy and hysteria.

Mick 24-01-2022 21:10
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
LATEST: U.S Pentagon puts 8,500 troops on heightened state of “readiness”, in the event of Russia invading Ukraine.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 21:11
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36110898)
NATO has plenty of land and sea to "play" with. Russia in wintertime not so much. Eg What's the Washington National Guard doing in Ukraine? Washington State not big enough or suitable enough?:confused:
IIRC 60% of Crimean population is Russian. There was a vote, which is more than Eastern Ukraine(largely Russian) has been allowed.
Air attacks on Eastern Ukrainian rebels ok, but air attacks on Syrian rebels isn't? Not exactly consistent is it?

Nothing to do with whether something involves Russia or not, it's the matter of the staggering levels of hypocrisy and hysteria.
You had the opportunity to create a topic on Syria or Eastern Ukraine on the Forum but chose not to.

And then you complain that no one discussed these issues that you decided not to raise. :confused:

Sephiroth 24-01-2022 21:34
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36110914)
You had the opportunity to create a topic on Syria or Eastern Ukraine on the Forum but chose not to.

And then you complain that no one discussed these issues that you decided not to raise. :confused:

... on a pedantic point: "... issues that you had not decided to raise."

LOL.

1andrew1 24-01-2022 21:35
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36110916)

... on a pedantic point: "... issues that you had not decided to raise."

LOL.
Fair cop, guv. ;)

Mick 24-01-2022 22:06
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
BREAKING: NATO says European leaders and U.S President Joe Biden stand united in warning Russia that an attack on Ukraine will provoke a tough response.

Sephiroth 24-01-2022 22:25
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36110920)
BREAKING: NATO says European leaders and U.S President Joe Biden stand united in warning Russia that an attack on Ukraine will provoke a tough response.
"oo er" - says Putin. "I'm frightened".

What did Chairman Mao call the US (and thus NATO)? Paper Tigers and we (UK) were their running dogs.

Mick 24-01-2022 22:28
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Defcon Warning site clarifies U.S troop deployment:

Quote:
There is currently no movement by the United States to sent troops to defend Ukraine from invasion. Any suggested troop movement is to bolster allies in the region. Though it is unlikely that Russia will perceive the difference.

nomadking 25-01-2022 07:53
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36110914)
You had the opportunity to create a topic on Syria or Eastern Ukraine on the Forum but chose not to.

And then you complain that no one discussed these issues that you decided not to raise. :confused:
:confused:Where in the my post did I complain that nobody was discussing Syria?
Eastern Ukraine is very much part of this topic. I mentioned Syria as a comparison of attitudes towards air attacks on rebels and civilians.

1andrew1 25-01-2022 09:06
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36110938)
:confused:Where in the my post did I complain that nobody was discussing Syria?
Eastern Ukraine is very much part of this topic. I mentioned Syria as a comparison of attitudes towards air attacks on rebels and civilians.
A country invading another country is a different matter than a sovereign nation defending itself from terrorists and insurgents.

If you felt that Trump should not have bombed Syria in 2019 then you should have started a thread on it. Whatever the wrongs and rights of the Syrian bombing, it is not on the same scale as invading and occupying another country.

Paul 25-01-2022 12:17
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Enough, stop telling other people what topics they should create and get back to the topic.

Taf 25-01-2022 16:13
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
It's a small world.

Our plumbing job today was done by a young guy who left Crimea after the Russian takeover. His family was so afraid that Ukraine was next on the list, that they claimed asylum here.

He is not at all trusting of Putin.

Damien 26-01-2022 09:45
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
One possible sanction we could take: https://www.cityam.com/ukraine-starm...ity-of-london/

1andrew1 26-01-2022 09:49
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36111162)
One possible sanction we could take: https://www.cityam.com/ukraine-starm...ity-of-london/
I suspect the donations might deter this course of action.
Quarter of Boris Johnson's Cabinet took Russia-linked cash

Mick 27-01-2022 14:40
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
1 Attachment(s)
BREAKING: Defcon warning system obtains tactical information of location of Russian battalion assets which gives rise to believe Russia aims to annex all of Ukraine rather than part of it:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1643294250

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefconWarningSystem
This assessment matches the information we have at our disposal. The movement of Russian military assets into Belarus increases the possibility that Russia might make a move for all of Ukraine rather than just the SE region as initially thought.

Paul 27-01-2022 15:55
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Ukraine has a 250,000 strong army (+ a reasonable sized airforce).
It seems somewhat unlikely they will just let Russia waltz in and take over.

If we know where the Russian forces are, then they must, and should (will) be preparing for them.

Mick 27-01-2022 18:00
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
They will no doubt be receiving intel from us and America. I said earlier in the thread Ukraine has a sizable military presence, one to be proud of, but is almost certainly dwarfed by Russia's, it ain't going to be easy.

Mick 28-01-2022 18:55
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
BREAKING: U.S. Military General Mark Milley urges Russia "to stand down," says "the military capability of NATO is very, very significant."

Mr K 28-01-2022 19:59
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
I think we should reform the Home Guard and put them into the Ukraine.. Lots of Capt. Mainwarings about these days. Ukraine must have a Novelty Rock Emporium that they can guard ? I'm up for it, could do with a holiday. ;)

Paul 28-01-2022 20:17
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
if it involves you leaving, Im up for you doing it as well. ;)

Gavin78 28-01-2022 21:41
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Reports from sky news suggest Russia likley to invade in February.

Russia might be just playing the same tactics NK did when they wanted attention.

Pierre 28-01-2022 21:54
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 36111508)
Reports from sky news suggest Russia likley to invade in February.
Brilliant, did they send a memo? Maybe a “wish we were here”. Card?

TheDaddy 29-01-2022 01:04
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 36111508)
Reports from sky news suggest Russia likley to invade in February.

Russia might be just playing the same tactics NK did when they wanted attention.
Unlikely unless they want to upset their only real significant (marriage of convenience) ally on the world stage who happen to be holding olympics in February

Maggy 29-01-2022 09:24
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60179127

Quote:
Boris Johnson will telephone Russian President Vladimir Putin and visit Eastern Europe in the coming days as the UK steps up its diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine border crisis.

No 10 said the PM would repeat the need for Russia to "engage diplomatically" when he spoke to Mr Putin this week.

He would "reiterate the need for Russia to step back", No 10 added.

Mr Johnson has said the UK could deploy troops to protect Nato allies if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Well let's hope he still has enough gravitas for Putin to take him seriously.

Mick 29-01-2022 09:57
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 36111508)
Reports from sky news suggest Russia likley to invade in February.

Russia might be just playing the same tactics NK did when they wanted attention.
Where this stems from is that there is intel, Russia now has blood reserves in storage, to preserve life of their injured soldiers, it’s basically the last thing taken to a war footing, which indicates the invasion is on. Stored blood has a shelf life of 45 days.

Carth 29-01-2022 10:00
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Nice little jolly that takes him out of the country at (conveniently) the time the 'party' investigation may be released ;)

He may even be asking Putin if there are vacancies for a politically astute chap like himself over there :erm:

Hugh 29-01-2022 10:18
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36111526)
Where this stems from is that there is intel, Russia now has blood reserves in storage, to preserve life of their injured soldiers, it’s basically the last thing taken to a war footing, which indicates the invasion is on. Stored blood has a shelf life of 45 days.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ls-2022-01-28/

GrimUpNorth 29-01-2022 22:33
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
If we let Vlad get away with Ukraine, it'll also be game over for Tawain as China won't think twice about exploiting our perceived weekness.

Blackshep 30-01-2022 00:01
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Russia would be taking a big risk invading Ukraine both militarily and economically and the fact this is happening at a time of rising opposition to Vlad is no coincidence you can only have so many people falling off balconies, accidentally poisoned with military grade toxins and car accident's on empty roads. Will Vlad do it 50\50 right now and which way he goes will come down to how confident he is of remaining in power.

1andrew1 01-02-2022 12:46
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Kremlin refuses to reschedule Boris Johnson’s Ukraine call with Putin

PM frustrated in diplomatic ambitions after he had to cancel original call because of partygate statement

Boris Johnson’s efforts to present himself as an important diplomatic player in the Ukraine crisis have been struck a blow after the Kremlin refused to reschedule a call with Vladimir Putin that the prime minister had been forced to cancel on Monday.

The call was cancelled so Johnson could make a statement to MPs in parliament over Downing Street parties during lockdown.

No 10 had said it intended the call, previously set for Monday afternoon, to go ahead on Tuesday but the Kremlin rejected the request.

It is not clear if the call has been delayed because of genuine scheduling issues or is a calculated snub by Moscow to highlight Britain’s irrelevance, and Johnson’s weakness.

The Kremlin said a call could take place at a future date.

Instead of speaking with the Russian president on Monday, Johnson had to spend two hours answering MPs’ questions over his role in a succession of Downing Street gatherings held during lockdown.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...aine-diplomacy

Carth 01-02-2022 13:03
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Putin is a busy chap, things to do, places to go ;)

Why would he alter his own schedule just to take a phone call that, in all probability, would be yet more blustery vague threats to his (perceived) future actions?

:D

Mick 03-02-2022 21:10
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
LATEST: Feb 3 (Source Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies believe Russia has formed a plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine, potentially by producing propaganda videos showing a staged attack, the United States said on Thursday.

Damien 10-02-2022 17:48
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Starmer has come out with a pretty strong attack on Stop the War: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ans-like-putin

Looks like Labour are backing the Government pretty much fully on Ukraine. Makes you wonder what Corbyn would be doing right now since he is the head of Stop the War.

1andrew1 10-02-2022 18:27
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36113079)
Starmer has come out with a pretty strong attack on Stop the War: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ans-like-putin

Looks like Labour are backing the Government pretty much fully on Ukraine. Makes you wonder what Corbyn would be doing right now since he is the head of Stop the War.
Good to see a united front against Russia on this important issue.

TheDaddy 10-02-2022 21:17
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36113082)
Good to see a united front against Russia on this important issue.
Hate to break it to you but they're not taking any notice of us, the only country they're vaguely interested in not upsetting is America, which is probably why we're involved full stop, we are still their closest ally, for what that's worth

Mr K 10-02-2022 21:25
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36113108)
Hate to break it to you but they're not taking any notice of us, the only country they're vaguely interested in not upsetting is America, which is probably why we're involved full stop, we are still their closest ally, for what that's worth
Indeed they've succesfully made us an insignificance. Their divide and weaken tactics have worked nicely on the UK.

Maggy 10-02-2022 22:16
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
I'm wondering why now?Why is Putin throwing his weight around now? What's going on in Russia that he feels the need to push this issue.

Carth 10-02-2022 22:24
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36113123)
I'm wondering why now?Why is Putin throwing his weight around now? What's going on in Russia that he feels the need to push this issue.
I think it's something to do with Ukraine and Nato membership . . or the EU . . or sumfink

Hugh 10-02-2022 22:36
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36113123)
I'm wondering why now?Why is Putin throwing his weight around now? What's going on in Russia that he feels the need to push this issue.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...ew-year-a75842
Quote:
Surging prices, too, have highlighted a key flaw in the government’s approach of prioritizing stability from international shocks over long-term growth and prosperity — rising public discontent.

High prices are routinely cited by Russians as the number one problem facing the country, and living standards are still down by around 10% compared to 2013. Putin has said the country needs to see real wage increases of at least 2.5% a year.

With inflation above 8% that means significant nominal pay rises across the country

Blackshep 11-02-2022 15:47
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Putin has a whole load of domestic issues that aren't going away he's also angering many in the Russian military who are seeing their real budgets cut to pay for his nuclear modernisation program. Politically Nalvany has done a lot of damage and the sloppy response by Putin is concerning his normally stalwart supporter's whom he relies on. Putin is frantically playing the evil west attacking Russia card but it's failing with the majority of Russians wanting domestic issues that impact them daily sorted out.

If he does invade Ukraine he needs a very quick and decisive victory or it will be the final nail in his coffin and that's why material aid to Ukraine is ramping up. If they can blunt initial attack's not only will Putin have damaged his best and favoured front line force's but will expose Russia to harsh diplomatic and economical sanctions that will compound the domestic troubles. Right now it comes down to how desperate he is.

TheDaddy 11-02-2022 18:28
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackshep (Post 36113175)
Putin has a whole load of domestic issues that aren't going away he's also angering many in the Russian military who are seeing their real budgets cut to pay for his nuclear modernisation program. Politically Nalvany has done a lot of damage and the sloppy response by Putin is concerning his normally stalwart supporter's whom he relies on. Putin is frantically playing the evil west attacking Russia card but it's failing with the majority of Russians wanting domestic issues that impact them daily sorted out.

If he does invade Ukraine he needs a very quick and decisive victory or it will be the final nail in his coffin and that's why material aid to Ukraine is ramping up. If they can blunt initial attack's not only will Putin have damaged his best and favoured front line force's but will expose Russia to harsh diplomatic and economical sanctions that will compound the domestic troubles. Right now it comes down to how desperate he is.
I'm not sure I buy this, he's pretty much leader for life, I'd suggest an alternative scenario, he knows Ukraine joining the EU or Nato isn't going to happen anytime soon, so he's either exerting his authority over what he considers Russia's sphere of influence, which is a Soviet concept that predates WWII incidentally or he intends rebuilding the empire lost when the Berlin Wall came down. The problem is negotiation, they don't really do it and if they can spot a weakness or a reluctance by any single nato ally to carry out threats they'll exploit that rather than compromise

Hugh 11-02-2022 18:41
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60355311

Quote:
British nationals in Ukraine should leave the country now, the Foreign Office has said.

The government said people should leave now "while commercial means are available" and is advising against travel to the country.

Earlier, President Joe Biden told US citizens to leave amid fears of a Russian invasion.

Mick 11-02-2022 20:43
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
BREAKING: White House warns Russia could invade Ukraine within the next week.

Hugh 11-02-2022 20:45
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36113199)
BREAKING: White House warns Russia could invade Ukraine within the next week.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...in-nato-biden/

Quote:
There is a “distinct possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine in a “very swift time frame,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Friday, as he urged all Americans in Ukraine to “leave immediately.”


“There will be no opportunity to leave and no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation in the event of a rush invasion,” Sullivan said to reporters in the White House briefing room. An attack, he said, would “likely begin” with aerial bombing and missile strikes, and “no one would be able to count on rail or air or road departures.”


The significant escalation in the U.S. warning came amid reports of new intelligence, and evidence on the ground, over the last several days indicating that Russia is now fully prepared to launch an invasion. Sullivan said that the United States has no final confirmation that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the final decision to attack. But, he said, “we believe he very well may give the final go order. That is a very distinct possibility.”


“It may well happen,” he repeated. “It may well happen soon.”

Mad Max 11-02-2022 20:50
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36113199)
BREAKING: White House warns Russia could invade Ukraine within the next week.
Jeez oh, that isn't good at all, what kind of response would Russia get from the US/European allies?

Paul 11-02-2022 21:23
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36113203)
Jeez oh, that isn't good at all, what kind of response would Russia get from the US/European allies?
Other than sanctions ? None.

Damien 11-02-2022 21:25
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36113203)
Jeez oh, that isn't good at all, what kind of response would Russia get from the US/European allies?
More sanctions I guess. Not much else we can do. We should go after Russian money in London as well though, if they want to be a pariah state then we need to make that stick. They can't continue to push the West like this and then expect to selectively choose to benefit from it as well.

Mad Max 12-02-2022 15:11
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36113207)
More sanctions I guess. Not much else we can do. We should go after Russian money in London as well though, if they want to be a pariah state then we need to make that stick. They can't continue to push the West like this and then expect to selectively choose to benefit from it as well.
That would be Chelsea knackered then. :D

Mick 12-02-2022 15:51
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
LATEST: Countries across the World advises it's own citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Jordan, USA, UK have so far publicly urged their citizens to leave while commercial means of travel exist.

Meanwhile - Russia is warned of 'resolute, massive, and united response' if it invades Ukraine as crowds join resistance march.

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-joh...probe-12514080

Damien 12-02-2022 17:01
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
We really need to make this hurt. The suggestion of cutting them out of the banking system is a good one.

Hugh 12-02-2022 23:11
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
1 Attachment(s)
Ex-SIGINT guy I follow with posted this - relevant point being a Virginia Class Fast Attack sub doesn’t get noticed unless it wants to be noticed.

Things are heating up…

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/st...962174471?s=21

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1644707424

Blackshep 13-02-2022 02:56
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Putin's position is not as secure as it might look he has a circle of associate's that he relies on quite heavily and his support from the military is declining as anger grows about their budget's. If he gives the order to invade it has to be a quick campaign for him if they get bogged down and losses start climbing he will be in serious trouble. If he invades and suffers no opposition from the west he will move onto the Baltic states and currently in military term's there is not much chance of NATO being able to hold them.

The west urgently needs to boost it's defence spending and expand existing forces as a Russia looking to reconstitute the soviet union is a definite threat at this point.

RichardCoulter 13-02-2022 03:08
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
KLM first airline to suspend flights to the Ukraine. Anyone from the UK should be getting out ASAP.

RichardCoulter 14-02-2022 13:38
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
According to todays news, this coming Wednesday is believed to be the day that Russia will invade the Ukraine.

A family member of a friend lives near to the border of Poland and is getting ready to flee just in case. She is a healthcare worker nearing retirement, so this isn't good for the country or a lady in her sixties to have to leave everything behind and start all over again.

Pierre 14-02-2022 13:50
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36113276)
According to todays news, this coming Wednesday is believed to be the day that Russia will invade the Ukraine.
.
I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.

papa smurf 14-02-2022 13:53
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36113278)
I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.
It would be rude to advertise it and not do it.;)

Sephiroth 14-02-2022 13:58
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36113278)
I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.
I'll stick my neck out and say if it occurs, it'll be in the East where Russia supports the secessionists.

Damien 14-02-2022 14:05
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
The people saying Wednesday are morons, idiots of the highest kind.

I am going to go with Thursday at 3:45pm GMT time.

Jaymoss 14-02-2022 14:26
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
All along the Ukraine have said they do not believe they will be invaded now the Ambassador here is saying we are prepared to offer concessions and possibly no longer try to join NATO. That is quite a turn around for a country who appeared confident it would not happen

papa smurf 14-02-2022 14:29
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36113285)
All along the Ukraine have said they do not believe they will be invaded now the Ambassador here is saying we are prepared to offer concessions and possibly no longer try to join NATO. That is quite a turn around for a country who appeared confident it would not happen
Putin blindsided as Ukraine suddenly U-turns on major climbdown to halt imminent invasion
UKRAINE's UK ambassador has denied that Kiev is considering abandoning its goal of joining NATO to avoid war with Russia.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ystaiko-latest

Jaymoss 14-02-2022 14:37
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
hahaha God know then. The King of the North wants his Empire hahaha


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