Re: Coronavirus
 

That chart is an “estimate”. We’ll know for sure in a week or two

---------- Post added at 09:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 ----------

Come on Hugh you know the best way to mis-represent numbers is to use %

Testing has increased by 600,000 COVID cases by 40,000. Against last week.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Officials drawing up plans for two-week post-Christmas lockdown.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...s-say-12498746

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s just noise now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’ll hurt for the Steve Bakers of this world if it happens. “Freedom” erosion on steroids. Or genetically engineered in a lab if preferable.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Good luck with that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

In other words, the civil service is doing what it’s there for: preparing policy options which ministers can then pick from.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s not the civil servants bit that’s interesting (I agree - they’ll be doing all kinds of contingency planning) it’s the fact it’s clearly being briefed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, they’re definitely ‘letting it be known’ - if they’re genuinely trying to keep disruption to a minimum, however, this still doesn’t make further restrictions inevitable. We had a similar situation in Scotland last month when a series of changes to the rules that had been quietly briefed for days suddenly failed to appear.

I expect at the moment they are *hoping* that a combination of high booster rates and a possibly less severe illness from omicron will render curbs unnecessary. But if that doesn’t work out then the appropriate policy option has to be ready to go.

Re: Coronavirus
 

He knew that…

Re: Coronavirus
 

The next straw to clutch at is the hospitalisations/death rate vs the delta wave in summer.

In reality the important question is the hospitalisations/death rate vs delta now with increased vaccine coverage.

To present the former and say “see it’s mild” is skewing the evidence for a comforting narrative. The reality is, based on the growth rate, it needs to be significantly milder than delta in November.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not when comparing like for like…

7th December 1,051,987 tests, 54,257 positive
14th December 1,319,891 tests, 87,619 positive

Less than 30% more tests, 60% more positive.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Indeed, Omicron would have to be vastly less lethal to mitigate the ease with which it infects people. It doesn’t matter if only a tiny fraction of its victims get seriously ill if, because it infects them all within a very short time, they all end up in hospital together and we run out of beds. The rate at which we get booster jabs into people is probably more significant here than how lethal omicron may or may not be.

Any comparisons with earlier waves will be interesting in illustrating vaccine effectiveness but ultimately all that really matters in public heath terms is whether our hospitals can continue to function. If it appears that serious illness is going to overwhelm the NHS then back in our boxes we will go.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Agreed. What caught my eye was "allies of the prime minister who claimed he wanted to go down the guidance route". So it's basically there to cover Johnson's back with the Party by disseminating the view that that he doesn't want to go down the route of more severe measures but he may have to.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/15...liament-square

Predictions for the revolution? 5 arrests? A torched car? Punching a police horse?

Wonder if any of the news channels will carry it. The Man U game is off so might as well watch something.

Re: Coronavirus
 

People have changed their behaviour - look at all the reports of cancelled Christmas parties.

The predictions are doomed to be wrong, but that doesn't matter as long as they have the right effect.