Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well, little by little, you can see the future beginning to unfurl.

I've drawn attention before to the scrape ITV got into a few years back with the reduction of advertisement placement on its channels.

It seems that TV advertising is now expected to be flat, but on line revenues are increasing.

Seems like Carolyn Mc Call has got it right with her focus on improving the ITV Hub.

https://www.a516digital.com/2018/11/...er-online.html

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The point you seem to be missing with this shift from linear viewing to On Demand the advertisers have to advertise somewhere get ready for adverts before and after your On Demand shows.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The answer appears to be to permit viewers to choose between subscriptions with no ads and no subscriptions (or less costly subscriptions) with ads.

Anyway, why should the media companies be concerned with the plight of advertisers per se? They are only interested in relation to their own funding models.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I’m not sure how many subscribers a company that is yet to turn a profit is relevant.

The business models rely on large numbers paying a small amount per month. To buy say, worldwide Premiership rights would cost over £7bn, give you a compelling product in one country and add on content for the rest. So realistically you’d need the compelling content in every region: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc.

How many tens of billions have you spent? Will the 100m subscribers paying £8 a month suddenly pay you £££s a year to cover your costs?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It's not only the cost of rights you have to factor in

Cost of supplying each game to the subscribers
Cost of advertising to encourage people to be subscribers
Cost of processing subscriber payments
Cost of support staff

To name but a few

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

There’s a common trick in the sector which is to grow market share, float on a stock exchange and in all the hype initial investors cash out their shares at a hyper inflated price.

The bread and butter concepts of investing get lost: what is the return? Often, to hope someone else caught up in the hype or another large company comes along with a combined stock/cash offer in a combined company. There’s only so many times this can happen before the customer base has to return profits in the form of dividends.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The debt Netflix has is staggering, jfman, but so are their revenues and growth. I don't see their growth slowing any time soon, but at some point, yes, they have to make money.

Disney's and the other streamers, are going to take at least a few years to get going, but which time I think Netflix will be in profit and who knows, there may even be talk of dividends.

Once Brexit is out of the way, Netflix and Disney are my primary investment targets from 2019/2020 onwards with perhaps a bit of Apple for good measure.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Oh I agree the revenue and growth are staggering, but when these tail off prices will go up and much like everyone else it’ll be about how much the subscriber base will take in terms of price rises.

As for investments I’d snap up property in the post Brexit market collapse.:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I will choose physical media over digital anyday.

Case in point I wanted to get Forza Horizon with the VIP pace for my nephew and myself.

But the Deluxe Ed (£60) didn't have a Disc.

So I bought 2 Ultimate Ed at £80 each.

I will do the same again.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Yes, Netflix could crash and burn and I recall saying as much a year ago in this very thread, but I'm not so sure now.

For the full year 2018, Netflix is predicted to have 150m customers, currently it's 130m. At the beginning of 2018, they had something like 120m and the beginning of 2017 it was something like 90m.

If they keep growing for a few more years at a rate of 20-30m customers per year and then control their costs at that point, they should be awash with profits by the mid 2020s and will have enough of their own content to offset all of Hollywood leaving their platform, if that happens, as they won't have to pay for all the expensive licensing deals.

If they do crash (a stock market crash won't help here) then simply someone like Apple or Mircosoft will gobble them up.

Just as an aside, how far do you see the property prices falling by? It's something I'm closely watching, as my circumstances might dictate that I need to might need to look out for property deals in the next year or so.

---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------

But as DVD players stop being sold by the shops and physical media in terminal decline, we will have no choice but to go down the streaming route in the future for all entrainment needs.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I don’t think they’ll collapse, and agree with what you say someone else will step in if it ever came to it.

Whoever did step in still has to answer the original question: how, where and when do they turn a profit? You may be right about the mid 2020s, but how much has been invested to get there?

Given all that what’s the chances of plunging tens of billions into the global sports rights markets before then? Zero.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Netflix will have invested an aboslute fortune, but as Reed Hastings has said, they need to become a HBO before HBO becomes a Netflix.

The old Hollywood companies still have an incredible advantage, even at this stage with several decades of tv and films each and all the subsequent rights that go with them, not that they're using that advantage. Netflix has had to build its catalogue from scratch. I reckon they'll have another relatively clear-ish run for the next three years, before Disney and the other Hollywood streamers start to make an impact.

I don't think Netflix will involve itself with sports, but Amazon and possibly Apple, Facebook and the other tech cos, will.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

David Zaslav, the boss of Discovery, gave a interesting interview to Variety magazine recently about how he and John Malone see the future of tv going. The interview is also directly related to the UKTV channels thread as well, as it shows what Discovery's end game is in that regards.

The interview includes a audio podcast, so if you get the chance, have a read and listen hear:

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/dav...st-1203026976/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Thank you, Horizon. I look forward to listening to that interview later today.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I'm not convinced Discovery will be a big player more likely an acquisition for one of the big players.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You're welcome Old Boy.

It's nothing fantastic, just Discovery's wish to become King of "quality" tv, as they see it. When they say quality, they're talking about all food shows, all home related shows etc and owning them worldwide on their own platforms. With taking full control of all the cooking/home related channels from UKTV, this gives them complete control of all such stuff as far as the UK goes.

They seem to think their combined offering is a viable alternative to Netflix, Disney and quality dramas...

---------- Post added at 17:43 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

Agree.

If you listen to the interview, he's talking about being on Amazon's platform and devices. Read between the lines and I reckon he's hoping Amazon will buy them out soon.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Seems advertising will continue both on linear and connected devices and do just fine contrary to what you'd have us believe.
https://www.v-net.tv/2018/11/23/sky-...tv-can-become/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Reality l call it rather then ifs. buts and maybes.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Yes, it will, for now.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And for the next 50 years plus...

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Link? :D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

MM has just posted a link contrary to your thinking and l have posted many before but alas its pretty hard to take some horses to water sometimes as they say.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

So the future is standard definition and has adverts imposed upon us? Feels a bit 90s.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You're at it.....:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Den, you seem to have a problem separating the present from the future! What I have been saying all along is that traditional broadcast channels are likely to be much diminished and possibly gone altogether in about 15 years. The BBC is also working on that assumption.

There is no contradiction in what I have said with the article posted by muppetman!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

There goes another one. TV5 Monde on Sky and Virgin Media being abandoned in favour of on demand programming.

https://www.a516digital.com/2018/11/...to-online.html

It is not yet clear whether the on demand programming will still be available on Sky or Virgin Media, but it sounds as if we might only be able to access it via the internet.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Not surprised, I never even heard of it let alone watched it - so no big loss.

For the record, despite there being around 300 channels ( a guess - no time to count them' - I rarely watch anything other than from a selected 25-30 channels

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You are not alone, Raider. Pay TV offers very poor value for money, in my opinion.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And yet you remain a customer of Virgin Media so that is certainly some contradiction given your love of everything streaming and your constant carping criticism of Pay TV.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

No, Den, completely and utterly wrong. The fact that I am getting annoyed at the deteriorating quality of pay-tv doesn't mean that I am yet ready to stop my subscription. I still benefit from getting all my Netflix watch list collated together with my recorded programmes, and there are still programmes I watch on pay tv channels that are not available elsewhere except via pay per view.

But I used to be able to record three or four programmes a week from Sky One and more from Sky Two. Nowadays, hardly anything on those channels that interests me and I can't remember the last time I watched anything from Sky Two, which isn't even available in HD. But of course you need to subscribe to the Full House to get all the benefits of cable that I use, and so paying on a lower tier is not an option. I have to admit that I am paying a lot of money for very little.

One bright spot is the new Virgin Media UHD channel, which stands head and shoulders above any of the Sky fare, even though currently it only broadcasts for a few hours per night. I have been watching Start-Up, The Art of More and a number of the nature programmes. House of Cards I have already seen but is superb. Shut Eye looks good, too, although I have yet to start watching that. All of this content is available in UHD quality and there are no commercial breaks at all. Strangely, it is not yet available on demand, but I hope that is coming.

The Virgin Exclusives are also worth watching. Again, the quality of those I've seen to date is also very good.

So enough reasons to stick with conventional pay-tv at the moment, but the deterioration of programming on Sky is both disappointing and sad. Unfortunately, I can see the way this is all going.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

How can virgin's UHD channel be head and shoulders above any of the sky fare.


Excluding BT Sports rights, Sky have numerous Premier League games on UHD, virgin have none - unless I am missing something:confused::confused::confused:

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I don't think he was referring to the football, Raider.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Always a man of contradictions that is for sure OB as l suspect you will be repeating this chapter and verse long into the future.

---------- Post added at 06:31 ---------- Previous post was at 06:27 ----------

If you had a company it would have gone bust by now.;)

---------- Post added at 06:35 ---------- Previous post was at 06:31 ----------

Yes the new Virgin Media UHD channel is certainly a improvement in that area but there is still not enough content around to increase the hours that the channel is broadcasting for currently.

---------- Post added at 06:37 ---------- Previous post was at 06:35 ----------

Your opinion but not mine..

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I was referring to the quality of content in terms of general entertainment. I was not referring to sports and films premium channels. Sorry, maybe I should have made that clearer!

---------- Post added at 14:20 ---------- Previous post was at 13:15 ----------

The demise of terrestrial TV broadcast over the airwaves is now gaining momentum on the Continent.

https://www.a516digital.com/2018/12/...v-ends-in.html

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Interesting report here, in which we have confirmation that the number of subscriptions to streaming services in the UK is now higher than for conventional pay TV.

https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/opinion...-media-sector/

Extract:

According to OFCOM, there are now more TV subscriptions to Netflix, Amazon and Sky’s NOWTV than to traditional pay TV services in the UK: in the first quarter of 2018, UK subscriptions to the three largest online streaming services overtook pay TV subscriptions for the first time (15.4 million viewers versus 15.1 million). Meanwhile, annual revenue growth for online audio-visual services grew at a robust pace of 25% in 2017.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I wonder what the overlap is (customers who have pay-tv and those who pay for streaming services)?

For instance, I have VM and Amazon Prime, and my daughter has VM, Amazon Prime, and Netflix.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I imagine 14 million of them are on the Prime free trial ;)

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

We have all three as well, plus Now TV for Sky Atlantic content mainly.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I notice Amazon have charged me for Prime on my Recent statement. Not sure how they did this, it is possibly from a purchase thru Amazon in September.

I would state, I never asked for the free trial, or signed up to Prime (in fact I have put purchased something else in the interim which would have been free delivery with Prime membership.

So I presume I am one of the majority, despite never having streamed anything - false statistics imho.

I wonder how many others are included in the streamers as a result of being a Prime member?

I will be ringing them to sort it out.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I would imagine all Prime members are included in the statistics, as they can stream the Amazon Prime content (and Amazon Music) - I initially took Prime because I could get it half price, but since September, I have paid full price (and happy to).

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

They have recently changed the purchase checkout process, and it's all too easy to sign up for a trial. What used to be the "Confirm purchase" button now signs you up for the trial. You now have to click the "Don't gain Unlimited One-Day Delivery" link (which isn't a button).

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well worth it in a household where several family members are using it on a regular basis.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I can see how my wife might have fell into that trap, as it was her purchase that seemed to have started all this, but how it got onto my credit card is beyond me unless they used the card last used with the email address?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

That seems quite possible. Check your account settings.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...ewal-automatic

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The reason for this is more likely to be licensing issues caused by Brexit.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I wouldn't rule it out completely, but that's not what they said was the reason. They said 'changing viewer habits' were to blame.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

TV5 didn't have an Ofcom licence and relied on its French licence to broadcast to the rest of the EU, including until now the UK. Most channels affected by this are the other way around (based in London and licenced in the UK but broadcasting to other EU countries).

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Interesting items here detailing likely developments in 2019 and beyond. The golden days of streaming services has begun.

http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/2019-...redictions.php

http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/2019-...ons-part-2.php

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well, considering both of those articles are predictions I’d say “begun” may be premature. As Eleven Sports are learning it’s a crowded market already and do consumers who are already paying out substantial amounts really want to pay more for frivolous content just because it’s there.

Economic data in the USA and the eurozone pointing towards likely recession won’t help either. While the technologies will be utilised it’s far more likely to be the incumbents who benefit from this.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It has begun. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Starz Play...

I see your cup is half empty again, old chap!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

That’s pure gash, OB.

The golden age will be when it is viable for every home in the U.K. to access as many simultaneous streams as required, and everything presently delivered via broadcast is deliverable over IP (movies and live sports on similar terms to Sky for example). That means universal, affordable, super-fast internet access, which we are still several years from supplying to all homes, and several more years from provisioning with sufficient bandwidth and electrical power for everyone to max it out, as they would have to.

I know you’ve stuck your neck right out on this and you’re desperate for your opinions to be validated, but seriously, you need to wind the hyperbole in a bit.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

If the article is predicting the rise of Netflix or Amazon Prime I’d say it’s missed the boat. The success or otherwise of the latter is yet to be established, along with the key question of wihether consumers will bear the cost of multiple subscriptions which is what the majority of new entrants will rely upon.

Eleven Sports has demonstrated that the market for secondary sports rights isn’t really there in the UK. However that’s not really new, the delivery method may be, but Premier Sports, Boxnation, etc. all exist in the market and haven’t hit the levels of hundreds of thousands of subscribers.

Do you work for that website? I’ve noticed it a few times now in your posts.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I merely pointed out that it had begun. Of course we need to get full coverage over the whole of the UK and at super-fast speeds. That programme is well under way.

---------- Post added at 08:37 ---------- Previous post was at 08:26 ----------

No, I don't work for any site!

Netflix and Amazon are well established now after a few short years. Starzplay has stepped into the market. Disney+ will be here soon. I stand by my comment that the age of streaming has begun.

As for sport, I have always said that this is a different kettle of fish, and that until the technical problems are sorted out (particularly latency), most people will continue to use live scheduled TV to watch it. This will not take long, however, and when these issues are resolved, there will be a big push towards streaming.

You know as well as I do that the big change will come when the global players finally stand up to challenge Sky in terms of the Premiership rights. This, in turn, is dependent on superfast broadband being rolled out across the UK.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Netflix and Amazon are generally a bolt on to many peoples pay TV subscriptions and that market is not collapsing as you gloriously predicted.

---------- Post added at 08:47 ---------- Previous post was at 08:46 ----------

A message you have constantly repeated for many a year but one that does not stand up to scrutiny.

---------- Post added at 08:48 ---------- Previous post was at 08:47 ----------

Still waiting......

---------- Post added at 08:49 ---------- Previous post was at 08:48 ----------

You will be a dead as a dodo before that happens OB.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I didn't say it would. Not yet, anyway.

---------- Post added at 12:31 ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 ----------

My posts are supported by links, including the forecast 2019 articles above. Yours are not, at least on this subject. So it is your denials of what is and will be happening that do not stand up to scrutiny, I'm afraid, Den.

---------- Post added at 12:34 ---------- Previous post was at 12:31 ----------

As repeated ad nauseum, the most likely time for this will be 2022, provided of course, super fast broadband is rolled out across the country by then, which has always been the assumption.

---------- Post added at 12:35 ---------- Previous post was at 12:34 ----------

I could fall under a bus this afternoon, so you could be right on that one, Den. :D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

What difference is superfast broadband going to make to Amazon Prime's business model ?

Inclusive video streaming is just one of the many perks they offer for being a Prime subscriber.

Amazon are simply not going to pay the billions Sky (Comcast) does for Premiership football rights in one country.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Exactly MM but like a politician OB will obfuscate his way out of that question.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I am surprised that you have asked that question, muppetman. There are many parts of the country that cannot get superfast broadband and so they cannot access the streaming services. There is little point in any streaming services paying over the top for rights when they don't have an adequate means of distribution to make this a viable thing to do.

As for your view that global companies would not be prepared to pay for the Premiership rights in the UK, surely I don't need to point out to you that these are the rights that have made Sky so successful, and they do not have the resources that the likes of Amazon have. Acquiring these rights would push the number of Amazon Prime subscribers well above those of Netflix within the UK.

---------- Post added at 13:20 ---------- Previous post was at 13:13 ----------

This is interesting on a number of levels, and of course a reminder here that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are looking for a PSB answer to the Netflix domination of our streaming services.

https://www.a516digital.com/2019/01/...eads.html#more

The BBC is reportedly in talks with other European public service broadcasters to create an alliance to compete against US streaming giants.

The Sunday Times reports that the BBC is in talks to extend its commercial ties with counterparts across Europe to aid with co-productions. The newspaper says that following BBC Director-General Lord Tony Hall's appointment as president of the Switzerland-based European Broadcasting Union, he will press for greater collaboration among the 117 member broadcasters, which include Ireland's RTÉ, RAI in Italy, NPO in The Netherlands and France Télévisions.

This could, the paper says, lead to more European content appearing on the iPlayer.

Non-publicly funded EBU members are likely to collaborate by pooling streaming technologies and data analytics tools instead.

EBU members already collaborate on matters such as Eurovision, classical music radio, news gathering and broadcast technology.

At the same time in the UK, talks are still ongoing between the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 over a joint streaming service, previously dubbed a "British Netflix", bringing the best output from across television channels in one place.

The proposed alliances are a result of public service broadcasters struggling to keep up with changes in viewing habits and the big budgets that Amazon Prime and Netflix enjoy.

Netflix is due to spend $13bn (£10.3bn) on content this year. In comparison, UK public service broadcasters invested £2.5bn in content in 2017.

The licensing issue
In order to develop a unified online offering, public service broadcasters are currently attempting to untangle themselves from complicated rights and licensing issues, whereby the rights for individual programmes are scattered between the original broadcasters and independent production companies and sometimes split between different linear and on-demand services. This particularly affects the BBC/Discovery joint venture UKTV which looks set to be split in order to bring all the rights to archive BBC productions in-house.

The situation is also replicated abroad where the complex licensing of programmes is one of the reasons why the official availability of British TV channels and programmes varies so much from country to country.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And how much would a Prime sub become ?

Sky's core business is TV , Amazon use their streaming service to sell Prime subs they simply wouldn't pay the amount of money your talking about just for EPL UK rights.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

How exactly do you conclude that whereas Sky can afford the rights Amazon cannot? I don't see your logic at all!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Once again confusion reigns over resources and being able to build a profitable business model around selling Premiership rights.

There’s two companies streaming those already - Sky through Now TV and BT. Available on apps, satellite, Virgin Media and soon to be BT Vision.

I’m not sure what Amazon or anyone else bring to the market except increased costs. I say that as someone who has Prime.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 planned streaming service is just another rehash of the doomed before it started Project Kangaroo 10 years ago and nothing that has happened since will change that.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well, of course Amazon will charge for it. Whether that results in higher cost to the consumer, we would have to see.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Where have I said Amazon can't afford it ?

I'm saying they don't have the business case to pay billions of pounds on rights that only enhance the Prime offering in the UK.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Amazon is launching a free ad-supporting service in the US. This certainly lends support for my view that there will be a range of streaming services in the future, some ad-free subscription services and other services supported by commercials.

https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2019...video-channel/

EXTRACT

IMDb, the Amazon-owned Movie and TV review site, is launching its own free-to-view streaming video channel.

Freedive will be available in the United States across laptop or personal computer and Amazon Fire TV devices.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Whose assumption, and why are they assuming that?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

There was a spate of articles about this last year, and based on a fair bit of information I have read from various sources, this formed part of my 'prediction' that Den is referring to. You will recall that the FA was courting the streaming services in the last round of bidding, but the inadequate coverage of broadband in the UK is likely to have put them off this time around.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Higher rights costs get passed to the consumer. That’s a simple economic fact. The only chance the costs to the end user would come down is if they could bring new customers in to spread the costs across a larger customer base. As Sky have had twenty years ton develop their base (including Sky Sports subscribers on other platforms) I consider this unlikely in the extreme.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

There are different things they could do, including the addition of smaller, more affordable packages showing a more limited number of games, sharing content with other platforms, linking the football option with offers and discounts in other areas of their activities, etc. It is not as straight forward as you suggest. Amazon have the resources to pull this off if they choose to do so.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Nor is the glorious streaming future you portray as simple as you suggest. You’ve brought up a lot of variables there which, if profit yielding, begs the question why Sky haven’t tried it?

Nobody has suggested that Amazon don’t have the resources, what I am questioning is whether or not it’s the most effective use of £1.5bn a year and how simultaneously Amazon make a profit yet the consumer pays less. It’s speculative at best.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

That Amazon is interested is not in doubt. That's why they stuck their toe in the water and successfully bid for one of the smaller packages this time around.

I'm not surprised that you cannot see how different ways of structuring income streams might prove more successful. It's always easier to look at possibilities in terms of binary choices. However, success often comes to people and organisations that have imagination.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Hahaha subtle insult there.

Amazon didn't so much stick their toe in the water as got handed the rights by the FAPL who are desperate to introduce an 'online' element. You seem to forget (or deliberately omit) the reserve price for the packages wasn't met in the first round of bidding.

Success may 'often' come to people and organisations with imagination. Failure always comes to organisations that have business models that do not work. Setanta Sports and soon to be Eleven Sports being examples, one in the 'old' world and one in the 'new' world the principle remains the same. Streaming technology doesn't exempt new entrants from the basics of economics.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Completely agree basically nobody wanted the packages at least not at the reserve price , a bit embarrassing for the Premier League considering they thought all the streamers would be interested. Let’s not forget the press had speculated Amazon , Facebook , Twitter the list goes on.:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It cost Richard Scudamore his job it was that bad!

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And OB was their leading cheerleader.:D

Sorry OB.:D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

As I sit here with my lack of imagination let's also remember that Sky made exactly the same judgement call by bidding less than the previous auction for a broadly similar set of rights. Arguably they bet their whole business model on the basis that no new entrant would make significant inroads.

Some TV/movie rights holders will try to take control of their content end to end, and hope to fluke becoming the next Netflix and gain significant market share. The problem is Netflix are already there, and they're relying on people buying multiple add-ons. It's a circular argument but the basics apply.

New entrants need to identify where they can get money from the existing pay-tv customer base or identify consumers outside the market that they can get to buy their product. The former is getting price squeezed, the latter has multiple choices - Amazon, Netflix and Now TV that they currently choose not to pay for. Is Starzplay the answer? If that's the answer the question most definitely isn't "what's the most compelling pay-tv product I can buy for less than a tenner?".

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Sky reducing the size of their bids had a lot to do with BT sports reigning in their interest.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

True, but it also meant they believed nobody would be willing to pay the amounts paid last time. The price paid in 2016-19 is in the public domain and a new entrant (or BT) would surely bid more.

Sky on the other hand looked around and were confident this didn’t exist. Their wholesale deal with BT helping out that aspect.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

And yet, here comes another one. This does not seem to be going the way you are seeing things, jfman. The streaming services are increasing in number and will take over from the pay tv channels, providing more choice for less.

Sky knows it. The BBC knows it. Both are planning ahead for that very eventuality.

https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2019...nclude-europe/

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Bollocks but you know that anyway OB.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

They certainly won't offer more choice for less money - maybe for less people.

The only way your scenario would play out would be if all matches are available on all platforms - then the broadcasters/streamers would be competing for subscribers on price.

Of course the Premier League will never let that happen.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

NBCUniversal, 100% owned by Comcast, is making an app available to Comcast subscribers and Sky (another company 100% owned by Comcast) subscribers in Europe.

So essentially I can buy more Comcast owned products in a slightly different way if I wanted to. Or in this case the same way as I can (and do) buy Now TV. Another Comcast product.

I’d say this is closer to how I described the future in post #476 except they already have significant market share and this makes them even less likely to lose out to new entrants.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Netflix alone offers more choice than the pay tv channels. And for less than a tenner.

The outcome of sports rights has yet to be determined and although it is early days, I can see streamed sports services being cheaper in the long run with the global players involved. However, there are many things that could happen to mitigate against this and so no predictions from me yet on how the pricing will work out. One thing that does appear to be likely is that each sport will have a separate subscription. So if you like to watch different sports - horse racing, motor racing, golf, darts, boxing and football, this could be expensive if subscribing to multiple services. However, against that, I can see carriage deals being negotiated with Sky, Virgin Media and BT which would provide a cheaper means of viewing across multiple streaming services.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Just what I have been saying all along!

Streaming will be expensive for sports fans.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

It puts the costs up for everyone (not just sports fans) unless it can be demonstrated that they bring 'new' customers in for providers/distributors to recover their costs from.

All that's changing is that content providers are trying to remove platforms from the equation. They hope by dealing directly with the consumer they will tip the balance of power back in their favour avoiding content/platform disputes that are a staple of the US cable industry.

In the case of Comcast they are seeking to vertically integrate the lot end to end as shown above. It's not more choice it's more ways to make the same choice.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

This article predicts that linear programmes via Freeview will still be around in 2042!

https://ukfree.tv/article/1107052541...eview_in_2042_

It predicts that those under 24 will abandon linear TV by 2027, those between 25 and 44 will abandon it by 2035 and those over 45 will be the ones still using the system.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Doesn't surprise me on those splits - it is being driven by the young, who will probably find some way to stream what they want for nothing.

Not having a go at them per se - just that they are more tech savvy than the rest - whilst those over 45 consist of a lot of people who would struggle to tell you what streaming is

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Not sure I would agree - my kids(?) are 31 and 27, and both subscribe to Amazon Prime (half price, because they both work at Universities) and Netflix (as do a lot of their friends) - they can’t be ersed with the hassle(as they see it) of dodgy downloading.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

But they aren't in the lower age group they are in the middle aged group - so perhaps their preferences are mixed?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I can understand where the author of this article is coming from, but drawing a straight line from where we are now is not the way to be certain about the future. He or she completely disregards the increasing financial problems the scheduled linear TV channels will encounter as the income from advertising drops off because viewers are changing their habits. Resistence by some to on demand programming will wear away quicker as this becomes the norm in society.

I stick by my prediction. The old channels will be dead by 2035. I say again, the BBC is working on the assumption that they will be gone by 2038 at the maximum, so I don't think I'm far off, do you?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

You are massively overstating the financial problems because it suits your prediction.

The actual cost of broadcasting a linear channel is virtually zero if you own the content anyway. Streaming will broadly be led by the same companies evolving but the point where it’s no longer financially viable for them to maintain a linear presence is much further away due to the relatively low costs involved.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Of course it's not! Have you ever stopped to think how many people are involved in drawing up the schedules, fitting the advertisements within the limited openings within and between programmes, working out how to fill the gaps in the schedules where insufficient first run programmes are available, the need for an announcer before programmes start, etc, etc. It is far easier to simply upload a programme with advertisements included without regard to precise timing.

Have you forgotten the problems ITV experienced a few years back when advertisers reduced the amount of commercials due to the recession? That's how tight the margins are, and it would not take much for advertisers to reduce drastically the amount of advertising on commercial channels as viewership dropped off.

The smaller channels will go first. Keep your eye on Sky 2. I can't see that surviving for much longer.

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So how do the adverts get included? What happens if the advertiser doesn't want the advert shown in all regions? How does the advertiser get charged for the number of times their advert is seen? What if the advertiser wants the advert to be unskippable? What happens if the lifetime of the advert isn't the same as the lifetime of the content? What happens if the advert is SD but the content is HD? Or one has Dolby audio and the other doesn't?

Still sure it's easier?

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Why? as Sky as a company are very profitable so have no need to close any channel.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Come on get real , in OB’s world there’ll be a little button you press and it sorts all those issues out in one press.;):D

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

All of those channels rating 0.1 on BARB manage to carry out the tasks associated with broadcast television on a shoestring budget so forgive me for once again not accepting your viewpoint.

Advertising revenue will fall, that’s an inevitability, but you are ignoring (perhaps deliberately) my repeated assertion that it will largely be the same companies providing the same content on both mediums. Streaming/linear are not mutually exclusive and you are really questioning the marginal cost of maintaining a linear presence for someone who does both.

A streaming service that insists on inserting 12 minutes per hour into their content is destined to fail over those who don’t. Advertising would be eliminated altogether except product placement.

This, by paradox, will cause a price premium for advertising slots on linear channels that remain at the same time other costs will fall (leasing bandwidth) if there is reduced demand.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Your views are very interesting, jfman, but they are diametrically opposed to what the media industry itself is saying. If you don't believe these forecasts, there is not much I can say to you except wait and see.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

I can’t find anyone predicting the demise of Sky Two, or any suggestions that BSkyB plan to reduce the number of owned and operated linear channels in the UK in the near to mid term future.

One must always beware media analysts predicting a bright and shiny future. Remember, journalists in this field are selling a product - themselves. Nobody wants to read articles about a bland, ordinary and unexceptional future therefore there has to be a few lines to make the world seem more exciting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4184479.stm

Here’s the death knell for linear television from 2005.

Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
 

Well would you never another glorious prediction.;)