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Carth 02-01-2021 15:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36064695)
Alternatively close them rather than take the risk. Assess the difference in transmission vs December.

Like they did with pubs ;)

Pierre 02-01-2021 17:22

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36064695)
Alternatively close them rather than take the risk. Assess the difference in transmission vs December.

And if you’re wrong you’ve lost children two weeks at school in a period that they’ve already lost too much. Inconveniencing working parents that can’t get, or afford, childcare. Potentially putting their jobs at risk.

Gambling with vulnerable kids lives that are in abusive households.

Seems you’re happy to take those risks?

Hugh 02-01-2021 17:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36064703)
And if you’re wrong you’ve lost children two weeks at school in a period that they’ve already lost too much. Inconveniencing working parents that can’t get, or afford, childcare. Potentially putting their jobs at risk.

Gambling with vulnerable kids lives that are in abusive households.

Seems you’re happy to take those risks?

It's not about anyone being happy to take risks, it's about risk assessment and mitigation.

Which will cause most problems - lockdown/schools closing, or the NHS being overwhelmed, NHS staff burn-out and sickness (which adds to the NHS issues), the unknown impact of Long Covid on people and the NHS, the heartbreak of families when a relative dies from COVID without any family member with them?

jfman 02-01-2021 17:28

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36064703)
And if you’re wrong you’ve lost children two weeks at school in a period that they’ve already lost too much. Inconveniencing working parents that can’t get, or afford, childcare. Potentially putting their jobs at risk.

Gambling with vulnerable kids lives that are in abusive households.

Seems you’re happy to take those risks?

Not sure many kids die at the Easter holidays, summer holidays, etc.

There’s enough scientific data that quantifies the impact of education settings on R. I’d be absolutely delighted to see schools close for a period to get infections down.

nomadking 02-01-2021 17:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Never quite got the reasoning for "vulnerable" kids to continue attending school, compared to being at home outside of school hours and in normal school holiday times. What is meant to be the difference?

jfman 02-01-2021 17:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36064706)
Never quite got the reasoning for "vulnerable" kids to continue attending school, compared to being at home outside of school hours and in normal school holiday times. What is meant to be the difference?

It’s essentially a ruse from right wing libertarian types that if you told them you wanted to raise income tax a fraction of a penny to fund increased after school, summer school, free school meals and social services would say no and wax lyrical about personal responsibility.

1andrew1 02-01-2021 17:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36064703)
And if you’re wrong you’ve lost children two weeks at school in a period that they’ve already lost too much.

If it's really that essential then let's be a bit creative - extend the term into the summer by a couple of weeks, reduce Easter holidays, etc.

jonbxx 02-01-2021 17:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36064681)
Except that they don’t. They slow the process, that is all.

You’re right, I meant to put include ‘in a set period of time/infections per week’. Apologies for that!

jfman 02-01-2021 17:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36064709)
If it's really that essential then let's be a bit creative - extend the term into the summer by a couple of weeks, reduce Easter holidays, etc.

It’s not essential - the school year is based on an agricultural calendar. Other countries have significantly less days in their school year with no real evidence our education system is superior/inferior to them.

When we inevitably accept there will be no exams that saves weeks for the years those apply to.

Pierre 02-01-2021 19:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36064704)
It's not about anyone being happy to take risks, it's about risk assessment and mitigation.

Well, close the schools and what I have put will happen, don’t close and what you list may happen.

They don’t know yet.

---------- Post added at 19:19 ---------- Previous post was at 19:13 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36064707)
It’s essentially a ruse from right wing libertarian types that if you told them you wanted to raise income tax a fraction of a penny to fund increased after school, summer school, free school meals and social services would say no and wax lyrical about personal responsibility.

Glad we can add “Social Work” to your repertoire of skills.

There is plenty of information on why vulnerable children not being at school is a bad thing, not so much the other way round though?

---------- Post added at 19:20 ---------- Previous post was at 19:19 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36064709)
If it's really that essential then let's be a bit creative - extend the term into the summer by a couple of weeks, reduce Easter holidays, etc.

That would work for, I absolutely would support that, good luck getting that past the unions though.

---------- Post added at 19:25 ---------- Previous post was at 19:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36064711)
It’s not essential

Definitely your “Opinion”. And you’re welcome to it, I thoroughly disagree.

Quote:

When we inevitably accept there will be no exams that saves weeks for the years those apply to.
Both my kids are not at exam age, and missed out on a 3rd of their school year and it definitely impacted the youngest.

nomadking 02-01-2021 19:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36064716)
Glad we can add “Social Work” to your repertoire of skills.

There is plenty of information on why vulnerable children not being at school is a bad thing, not so much the other way round though?

Such as? And compared to school holidays?
In normal times, a major problem outside of school hours, is them actually mixing with other kids.

Pierre 02-01-2021 19:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36064724)
Such as? And compared to school holidays?
In normal times, a major problem outside of school hours, is them actually mixing with other kids.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...ost-vulnerable

And many many more, knock yourself out

OLD BOY 02-01-2021 19:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36064676)
However children can and do pass all infections out to the wider world when they leave the hallowed halls of education.They are very good at that.;)

But the vaccinations are protecting the vulnerable. That is the big picture. It takes quite a few weeks for these infections of the young to pass down through the generations. By which time, the vulnerable will be protected via their inoculations.

We have already discussed the benefit of the virus spreading through the healthy population. We need simply to be in a position where these two things converge to eliminate the impact of the virus.

nomadking 02-01-2021 19:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36064726)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...ost-vulnerable

And many many more, knock yourself out

So nothing in relation to before the first school shutdown of last year(2020)?
When was "vulnerable" only defined as being in a care home?
It's another case of trying to justify something, after the initial decision.
How are children who are less likely to be controllable, going to be able to behave in a safe manner?

OLD BOY 02-01-2021 19:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36064674)
While the analysis is sound there’s other factors - there will be overlap between the “already infected” and vaccinated groups whether the former is as high as 20m or not If immunity starts to dwindle after a year (again this is only a guess) a significant proportion of the already infected from the first wave will lose immunity in the next 26 weeks. If the vast majority are getting a vaccine only proven to be 62% effective this pushes the “all done” date back further.

That’s one hell of an assumption, jfman! Where’s your evidence for such a wild statement? Your posts are more off the wall than before these days, and that’s saying something!

At present, nobody knows the lifespan of a Covid vaccination, but six months is pretty extreme, even for you.

---------- Post added at 19:57 ---------- Previous post was at 19:51 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36064678)
Agreed, but that’s not "within weeks"...

Looking at the ONS numbers from late last month, they estimate

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...24december2020

Those figures seem low to me - is that just that week?

Re-reading it, yes, it is.

Statista puts the cumulative total at 2.3 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ses-in-the-uk/

I agree with where Pierre is coming from, but I think the problem is with knowing who the people who have had this infection without knowing it (or not reporting it) actually are.

I think we all need to appreciate that the emergency measures are designed to ensure that the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Once we have achieved that, the measures can be lifted. We are not looking at a total elimination of the virus.


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