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I take Jon’s point about the BBC’s particular responsibility as the state broadcaster not to cause people to behave dangerously however I don’t accept it can be right for them to do this by suddenly withholding information they have previously routinely reported as it has been released. It gives the impression that the information is somehow unavailable (and yes I know it’s available elsewhere, but the point is, they have previously released the information straight away… So they create the impression that the information is now not available, and people perhaps will not go and look for it elsewhere). If they can fulfil their obligations, whether statutory or moral, by rigourous reporting and analysis, then all well and good. But when they start doing it (or rather attempting to do it) by withholding information… For me, they have crossed a line. |
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Information should be given in the proper perspective. Eg if Omicron leads to X% less severe cases, then still leaves the remainder. Also as Omicron spreads a lot more easily, that increase the actual number of cases, severe or otherwise. Then there is the issue of a potential successor to Omicron, which might be more benign or might be more severe and dodge all vaccines. Omicron has a large number of differences compared to Delta, so anything is possible.
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The Guvmin now has enough modelling information to be able to tell us what numbers will trigger further measures. They have no valid reason not do disclose this and you can be sure that the Whitty lot already know that number.
That can be provided as a scenario based range of course based on the seriousness factor of Omicron. Like if it's 50% less likely to put someone in hospital then the infection number that triggers additional measures is X; if it's 67% lesslikely, then the trigger number of infections is Y. Something like that. |
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Merry Christmas London, Manchester, Birmingham etc etc :p: |
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Local lockdowns really only make sense if they are actual lockdowns and people need a reasonable excuse to leave the area, and that such is patrolled. Realistically they would probably have to seal off the whole of London and prevent anyone going in and out if they wanted to do that, save for essential deliveries, people going to and from work who couldn't work from home, and allowing people to re-enter the area to go home if they arrived after it was locked down. That this is difficult to do here, is presumably why it won't be. Starting to think the figures of Omicron published by UKHSA are either severely lagged or just a massive underestimate, surely now in the areas where it's dominant there is now minimal or no Delta, if the evidence Omicron is less severe is true, this is presumably good news. |
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If you die before its had chance to pass on, it dies as well. Its in its own interest not to kill its hosts. ---------- Post added at 17:00 ---------- Previous post was at 16:49 ---------- Quote:
Today its back to the fear factor "Half of colds will be Covid, warn UK researchers" ---------- Post added at 17:06 ---------- Previous post was at 17:00 ---------- That said, this just appeared on the BBC site. Quote:
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This one is a good place to start: https://viralzone.expasy.org/9116 |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53077879 |
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It's not "as nasty" is more accurate. |
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170,000 deaths in the U.K. over two years against 11.7 M “recorded” infections, the actual figure is probably at the very minimum 3x that, almost certainly more. On the “recorded” infections alone that is a 98.5% survival rate. Obviously, vaccines, have had a major influence on that, but bottom line is………..stop being scared. |
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There are no "recorded" influenza infections bar those that end up in hospital; there is no Flu Test. You get bad flus, mild flus; you get Coronavirus colds. Now we're getting mild Covid-19. So, the day the Guvmin takes away the Daily Stats is the day that normality will happen. |
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...s/november2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...es/october2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat.../september2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...les/august2021 Number 1 is Dementia and Alzheimer’s, & number 2 is ischaemic heart diseases, neither of which is infectious… *And the leading cause of death for the year so far… |
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I’ll play a game with you Hugh, from the following what would rather have? 1. Lung cancer, Bowel cancer, (other cancers) 2. Motor Neurone Disease 3. Parkinson’s Disease 4. Dementia 5. COVID 6. Death from old age having escaped the previous 5. I’d take 6, and 5 would be a very close second. Before you trot out the « you can’t catch cancer » trope. At least 30% of people in the country will get cancer and the survival rate isn’t 98.5%. Dementia is fast becoming even worse. So focus on the things, and fixing the things, that will really kill you. Also possibly don’t ride motorbikes either. I got rid of mine 8yrs ago and my life chances improved greatly. |
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This is interesting.
US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say Quote:
UKSHA releases omicron risk assessment. https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1640304261 |
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Far more detailed statistics are needed in the public realm such as difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated as I've heard many talk as though all new infections are unvaccinated people which is not the case at all. Even the death figures are just clumped together for the public with "covid related death" being very common not distinguishing between covid direct deaths and deaths of those from the vaccine.
None of this changes the fact that the mortality rate of covid is very small and doesn't warrant the response it's so far had. |
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‘Living to live with Covid’ does not mean more lockdowns. It means learning to live with the reality of life. Snowflakes need to recognise that they have to melt eventually. |
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In response to your "game", we don’t get much of a choice about 1, 2, 3, 4, & 6 - we can have a choice about 5, and our actions on that choice impact others. ---------- Post added at 09:48 ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 ---------- [/COLOR] Quote:
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Hope that helps. |
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Millions set for early FOURTH jab after it emerges booster effect starts wearing off after just 10 weeks: by heck this jab business is getting a bit silly. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ions-rise.html |
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Covid booster jabs and vaccinations will be not be available in Wales on Christmas Day or 26 December, the Welsh government has confirmed.
When I think of all the other people that work through xmas, I wonder why they opted for this? |
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But, OB has been right all along in that if you cocoon people in their homes or otherwise reduce their natural exposure to germs, then the immune system has had nothing to attack and so immunity wanes. Simples or what? |
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Will Santa have to do an LFT this evening before he goes out delivering?
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If large number of people who are admitted to hospital for reasons other than covid, are infected with it, that is still a bad sign. Not only is it a sign of large numbers of people being infected by coming into contact with large numbers of people who were infectious, they also pose a risk to others in the hospital.. |
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Pierre’s comments regarding hospitalisations don’t really hold any merit or purpose as we were just at the beginning of this wave/surge..
Last data for hospitalisations is 19th December according to the government website at which they were just over 1000 a day, however cases from 14 days prior to that we’re at approximately 50,000 a day. Whilst the data we are getting is promising, we’re not out of the woods yet. The next 3-4 weeks are critical as to which way we progress. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. |
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Does anyone have the figures for 'Flu' this year?
No, I can't be bothered to go looking myself :p: |
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Remember, if you think you have a cold, its covid. If you think its the flu, its covid. If you got hit by a bus, its covid. |
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I did find a medical stats page (from Nov 2021) that proclaimed - in bold - that "Flu was not present in Wales" :erm: . . and another medical stats site, with lots of Covid graphs, and one chart that showed/stated that Covid deaths were 5 times higher than Flu deaths . . but the chart and data only dealt with men & women over 75 years of age. :erm: :shrug: |
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That article also mentions this, after the bit you quoted.
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Agreed, but most people are now out and about…
From the actual report. https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing-33.pdf Quote:
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You quoted that article to question Sephiroth's original post about "cocooning people in their homes" affecting their immunity. It actually agrees that isolation/lockdown does have an effect (just not quite for the reason he originally stated). |
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My original comment (the one about OB being right) takes us back to the earlier days of Covid and all references I make to the immune system is in that context.
There isn't a fully open society right now but the high Omicron uptake is bound to set the immune system going. Hugh wasn't representing me correctly. |
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All vaccinations actually do is prepare the immune system to be able to respond a bit quicker to a reinfection. It doesn't have to work out the antibody to deal with it, it already knows what to do. If covid is too quick for that response, then antibodies need to be present. If covid isn't that quick, then boosters aren't really required and all the talk of low antibody levels being a problem is misleading. |
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Project fear in full swing, get a life people, and stop living under the stairs it's actually quite nice outside, honestly, no scary monsters.
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All my shopping is done, and the last of my eating out before xmas was on Tuesday. |
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I’ve been ignoring the hype the last few days and enjoying Christmas with my whole family. I am much more relaxed as a result.
I am not stressing about this any longer. I’d advise the rest of you to do the same. Just enjoy life while you have one. A life spent under the stairs is no life at all. Just get your jabs and relax. |
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I want to hear the rest of the news we are missing out on. |
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Omicron cases are falling.
Correction, growth rate is falling which will lead to cases doing so as well. https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1640527954 |
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If our blood held on to all the antibodies we produce, it would set like concrete.
The memory cells will still be lying in wait though, although they can take a few days to make enough antibodies to combat a nasty strain of viral infection. "Unvaccinated people who catch Covid are 60 TIMES more likely to end up in intensive care". https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/fam...Znh?li=AAJt1k3 ---------- Post added at 15:30 ---------- Previous post was at 15:10 ---------- Quote:
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With a bit of luck, all the unvaccinated will get Covid and then it’ll all be over.
It really is time to untype Covid. |
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My niece tested positive, but luckily her isolation ended on the 23rd.
So Christmas was able to sort of happen. |
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But, I’ve looked into it, and yes they are small, but they are still potentially 5.3M ( including those that can’t be vaccinated) Considering COVID is at the very minimum 98.5 survivable, that is at least 80,000 that will go hospital and die, there are no figures on who will go in and survive. At the height of the last peak it was around 38K in hospital. So I appreciate the concern Obviously time frame is a big variable, 80K over six or seven weeks, no problem. 80K over two weeks big problem. All that said, it’s been two weeks since Omicron hit and no issues as yet. Our Welsh and Scottish friends need to remember their leaders actions when they ask for their vote. |
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No new restrictions in England are being announced by the PM today. Common sense prevails. Long may it last.
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/boris-joh...dvisers/191767 |
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Pierre, since hospitalisation data hasn’t been updated since the 20th December (according to the gov website) I’m interested in understanding how you reach there’s no real problems ?
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I got back from my local Sainsbury's, with food for a get together tomorrow.
But my sister has just me that my nephew tested positive and is isolating, so to protect my dad it's off and luckily the food can be put into the freezer. |
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I predict the next big revelation will be that the more we test, the more cases we will pick up! |
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Tests - 1,635,922 Cases - 103,940 23rd December Tests - 1,582,738 Cases - 114,616 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing |
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14th December Tests - 1,319,891 Cases - 95,063 15th December Tests - 1,635,922 Cases - 103,490 Anyone can pick random dates to suit. ;) |
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New rules requiring lots more testing, and of course, the obvious media driven fear factor.
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England has reported another record number of daily coronavirus cases, with 117,093 new infections.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-eng...7-093-12505230 |
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https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1640714515 Tests increased by 14.3% in the last 7 days Positive tests increased by 30.3% in the last 7 days Hospital Admissions increased by 8.2% in the last 7 days Good news is that deaths are down by 27.2% |
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The data is surely a bit odd at the moment with reporting and bank holidays not being consistent across the UK. Plus more people doing tests to see friends etc around Christmas.
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...droidApp_Other Hospitality before hospitals in England it seems. |
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We can't keep on breaking records unless we all keep catching it :p: |
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Could be heard immunity soon.;)
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How rediculous is this? Drakeford logic strikes again.
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Staff absence due to Covid now a significant issue for the NHS.
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7% of all hospital beds, as opposed to 24% from last year - the vaccines/booster looks like they're reducing severity of the COVID on people.
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It's the numbers of staff in the NHS that are getting covid or having to self isolate. It's crippling services. If you need treatment for anything else you'll be waiting a long time.
Mrs K reports patients are coming in with better quality PPE than the staff ... Clap for the NHS? We can't even be bothered to protect them any more. The keyboard warriors shirking at home, with online shopping have short memories. Attack the NHS and protect Boris seems to be the new right wing ideology. |
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People who don’t/won’t take ‘personal responsibility’ can have a negative impact on those who do - just like drink-driving… |
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So as as been mooted from the start - Covid caused major issues at the start because it was novel, now with vaccinations and infections our bodies are learning to recognise Covid type attackers and will be able to deal with them more effectively. We can still get new variants pop-up that could cause problems but that's pretty much like typical flu variants that occasionally give a bad season.
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All this hype about the number of infections is an over-reaction that only the unvaccinated should be concerned about. What people also seem to be missing is that the ‘no of infections’ is simply the number of people who have tested positive for the virus. Most have minimal or no symptoms at all. We seem to have become a nation of babies demanding protection from our parental government against a big bad entity that seems to be creating rather more noise than is justified. There will be more variants, and those who demand more measures each time this happens for decades ahead are not being realistic. |
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As to more variants - isn’t it a case of Omicron has found its optimal survival means? |
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How did you reach your opinion? ---------- Post added at 17:43 ---------- Previous post was at 17:32 ---------- Quote:
Possibly, but not definitively https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7839167002 As has been said before, the greater the opportunity the virus has to mutate, logically, the greater the chance of said mutation becoming more damaging to the host. |
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